2025 Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) Export: Volatile Swings

Key Takeaways

Palm oil, classified under HS Code 1511 (Palm oil and its fractions, whether refined or not, but without chemical modification), exhibited high volatility from January to September 2025.

• Market Pulse: Volumes swung sharply, peaking in February (+53.9% MoM) before collapsing in April (-44%) and September (-42.5%), ending Q3 near January levels. Prices dropped to $0.94/kg by June but rebounded to $1.07/kg by September.
• Structural Shift: Indonesia Palm oil Export reliance on Pakistan (12.2% of value) and two other key markets (33% combined) creates geographic concentration risk. Buyer power is equally concentrated, with 92% of value tied to a few high-volume accounts.
• Product Logic: HS Code 1511 trade data shows a bulk-commodity structure—refined palm oil (15119037) dominates (43.74% of value), with uniform pricing ($1.01–$1.15/kg) signaling competition on scale, not differentiation.

This overview covers the period from January to September 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS Code 1511) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The Indonesia Palm oil Export trend from January to September 2025 shows a volatile trajectory, marked by sharp volume contractions and partial price recovery. Exports started strong with a February surge (1.89B kg, +53.9% MoM) but collapsed in April (-44%) and again in September (-42.5%), ending Q3 at 1.29B kg—near January’s baseline. Unit prices declined steadily from $1.13/kg to $0.94/kg by June, then rebounded to $1.07/kg by September, reflecting tightening supply against fluctuating demand.

Drivers & Industry Context

The volume volatility aligns directly with Indonesia’s 2025 policy shifts. The April collapse preceded May’s export levy hike under Ministry of Finance Regulation No. 30/2025 [USDA], which raised duties to 10% for CPO to prioritize domestic biodiesel. This pressured exporters to accelerate shipments pre-hike (evident in June’s 37.3% volume spike) and cut volumes post-implementation. The July-August duty increases under Minister of Trade Regulation No. 1694/2025 [Global Trade Alert] further squeezed margins, driving the September volume drop. The hs code 1511 value held relatively stable due to refining focus (top sub-code 15119037 dominated at 43.74% of Jan-Oct value [yTrade]), but policy-induced supply constraints ultimately defined the trend.

Table: Indonesia Palm Oil Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia HS Code 1511 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

According to yTrade data, Indonesia's HS Code 1511 export trade is dominated by refined palm oil, specifically sub-category 15119037, which accounts for nearly half of total export weight and value. The second-largest category, 15119020, holds a quarter share, while crude palm oil (15111000) represents a smaller segment at roughly 8%. The remaining exports consist of various other refined fractions with minimal individual shares.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

The unit prices for all major sub-codes are tightly clustered between $1.01 and $1.15 per kilogram, indicating a classic commodity market driven by volume and cost efficiency rather than quality differentiation. This HS Code 1511 breakdown reveals a trade structure centered on bulk shipments of standardized products, where price sensitivity outweighs specialization. Exporters compete on scale and logistics, not premium attributes.

Table: Indonesia HS Code 1511) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia Palm Oil Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

Pakistan dominates Indonesia's palm oil export destinations, accounting for 12.2% of total value in the first three quarters of 2025. This heavy reliance on a single market creates significant exposure to any economic or political shifts in Pakistan. The top three importers—Pakistan, India, and China—collectively represent nearly 33% of all palm oil export value, indicating a concentrated regional trade flow that requires careful risk management.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

Pakistan's value-to-weight ratio is nearly identical (12.23 vs. 12.38), confirming a classic commodity market profile for palm oil trade partners. This alignment indicates bulk, price-sensitive purchasing for industrial processing or large-scale distribution, not premium product differentiation. The market offers volume scale over margin potential, with import patterns driven by cost efficiency rather than quality specifications or fragmented retail demand.

Table: Indonesia Palm Oil (HS Code 1511) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia Palm Oil Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, the Indonesia Palm oil buyers market is overwhelmingly dominated by a core group of key accounts. These high-volume repeaters, including major players like NATUROIL FZE, represent over 92% of the total export value and operate on stable, contract-based supply chains. This structure indicates a mature commodity market where long-term relationships and consistent procurement schedules are the norm, not spot trading.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The extreme concentration in key accounts creates significant customer concentration risk; losing even one major buyer could severely impact revenue. Therefore, the primary sales strategy must focus on deep relationship management and contract retention with these established partners, especially as policy shifts like the [Ministry of Finance Regulation No. 30/2025] affect costs. For the fragmented long-tail of smaller, transactional buyers, a secondary strategy using efficient digital channels can help capture additional volume without diverting critical resources from core accounts.

Table: Indonesia Palm Oil (HS Code 1511) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

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Action Plan for Palm Oil Market Operation and Expansion

• Diversify buyer base: Reduce reliance on Pakistan and the top three markets by targeting secondary importers in Africa or the Middle East, where demand is growing but competition is lower.
• Lock in contracts with core accounts: Secure long-term agreements with key buyers like NATUROIL FZE to mitigate volume swings from policy shifts (e.g., export levy hikes).
• Optimize logistics costs: Bulk shipments dominate HS Code 1511; renegotiate freight rates or consolidate shipments to offset thin margins.
• Monitor policy triggers: Track Indonesian export duty changes (e.g., Ministry of Finance Regulation No. 30/2025) to preempt supply shocks—accelerate shipments before hikes, delay during lulls.
• Explore premium niches: Test demand for fractionated or specialty palm oils (e.g., 15119020) in markets like Europe, where unit prices may justify higher costs.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Palm oil HS Code 1511 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm oil Export in 2025?

The volatility in Indonesia's palm oil exports is primarily driven by policy shifts, including export levy hikes in May and July 2025, which caused pre-hike shipment surges and post-implementation volume drops.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Indonesia Palm oil (HS Code 1511) in 2025?

Pakistan, India, and China dominate Indonesia's palm oil exports, collectively accounting for nearly 33% of total export value, with Pakistan alone representing 12.2%.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Indonesia Palm oil Export in 2025?

Unit prices are tightly clustered ($1.01–$1.15/kg) across sub-categories, reflecting a commodity market where bulk shipments of standardized refined palm oil (e.g., 15119037) dominate, minimizing price differentiation.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm oil export market?

Exporters must prioritize retaining contracts with key buyers (92% of export value) like NATUROIL FZE while using digital channels to efficiently manage smaller, transactional buyers.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers benefit from stable, bulk commodity supply but face concentration risks; any disruption in Indonesia’s exports could significantly impact their procurement pipelines.

Q6. How is Palm oil typically used in this trade flow?

Palm oil is primarily traded as a bulk commodity for industrial processing or large-scale distribution, with refined palm oil (15119037) being the dominant product.

Detailed Monthly and Quarterly Report

Indonesia HS Code 1511 Export Data Snapshot 2025 JAN

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