Indonesia Palm Oil HS1511 Export Data 2025 Q3 Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q3 Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia's Palm Oil Export 2025 Q3 under HS Code 1511 reveals a standardized commodity with uniform pricing across major markets like PAKISTAN (13.05% share), INDIA, and CHINA, driven by strong domestic demand. Geographic concentration poses risks, with PAKISTAN dominating imports, while regional players like BANGLADESH benefit from proximity. Buyer reliance on a few large markets calls for diversification amid policy shifts like US tariff reductions and Indonesia's delayed B50 biodiesel plans. This analysis covers 2025 Q3 and is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q3 Export Background

Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q3 (HS Code 1511: Palm oil and its fractions, whether refined or not) remains vital for global food, biofuels, and cosmetics, with steady demand driven by its cost efficiency. Indonesia, the world's top exporter, saw a 32.4% revenue jump to $18.14 billion in Q3 2025 [UkrAgroConsult], despite new export taxes and U.S. tariff negotiations lowering rates from 32% to 19% [Lundgreens]. The country's biodiesel push (B40 mandate) and India's $2.84 billion imports highlight its strategic role.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q3 Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia's palm oil exports in Q3 2025 showed a robust quarter-over-quarter increase in value, rising by approximately 17% to $5.95 billion, driven by higher volumes and a slight uptick in unit prices, though September experienced a sharp volume decline.

Price and Volume Dynamics

Compared to Q2, export value for Indonesia Palm Oil Export (HS Code 1511) climbed from $5.10 billion to $5.95 billion, with volume up 12% to 5.82 billion kg and unit price averaging $1.027/kg, a 2.7% increase. This growth aligns with typical seasonal patterns where palm oil exports often strengthen in the latter half of the year due to harvest cycles and steady global demand. The September volume drop to 1.29 billion kg may reflect early adjustments to policy changes or seasonal stock drawdowns.

External Context and Outlook

The trends are partly explained by Indonesia's export tax hike in August 2025 [GlobalTradeAlert], which supported prices, and strong year-over-year growth of 32.4% in export value for January-September 2025 (UkrAgroConsult). Ongoing biodiesel mandate expansions and favorable US tariff negotiations reducing rates from 32% to 19% are likely to sustain export momentum, though domestic demand from policies like B40 could pressure volumes ahead.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q3 Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q3 for HS Code 1511 is highly concentrated in refined palm oil products. The dominating sub-code, 15119037, described as vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, accounts for 45 percent of the export value and weight. Its unit price of 1.00 USD per kilogram aligns closely with other major codes, indicating a bulk commodity focus rather than high specialization. The analysis covers 2025 Q3, and sub-code 15119049 is isolated due to its minimal quantity contribution despite a normal unit price.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The sub-codes split into two clear groups: crude palm oil and refined palm oil. Crude palm oil (15111000) represents 12 percent of the value, while various refined forms make up the bulk of exports. Unit prices cluster around 1.00 to 1.11 USD per kilogram across these groups, showing little variation. This uniformity confirms that Indonesia's palm oil exports under HS Code 1511 function as fungible bulk commodities, traded based on volume and standard grades rather than product differentiation.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

The commodity nature limits individual pricing power, but Indonesia's scale offers collective leverage. Export taxes on crude palm oil, as noted by Global Trade Alert, may pressure crude margins but encourage domestic refining. Strong demand is evident from a 32.4 percent export value rise in 2025 (UkrAgroConsult), guiding strategy toward volume stability and potential shifts to value-added products.

Check Detailed HS 1511 Breakdown

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q3 Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

Indonesia's Palm Oil Export 2025 Q3 shows strong geographic concentration, with PAKISTAN as the dominant importer, accounting for 13.05% of the total export value under HS Code 1511. The close alignment between value ratio (13.05) and weight ratio (13.27) for PAKISTAN, and similar patterns in other top countries like INDIA and CHINA, indicates uniform pricing typical of a standardized commodity, suggesting consistent product grade across major markets.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The top importers form two clear clusters: first, high-volume consumers like PAKISTAN, INDIA, and CHINA, driven by large domestic demand for food and industrial uses; second, regional players such as BANGLADESH, MALAYSIA, and VIETNAM, likely benefiting from geographic proximity and existing trade networks that facilitate efficient logistics and lower costs.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

For market players, the reliance on a few large buyers like PAKISTAN and INDIA calls for diversification into emerging markets to mitigate risks. Recent policy shifts, such as reduced US tariffs from 32% to 19% [Global Trade Alert], and Indonesia's biodiesel ambitions delaying B50 implementation [GrainFuel Nexus], highlight the need to adapt to trade negotiations and domestic biofuel policies that could reshape export flows and pricing.

Get Complete Partner Countries Profile

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q3 Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

The Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q3 market, under HS Code 1511, is sharply concentrated among four segments of buyers. High-value, high-frequency buyers dominate with 85.67% of the export value, indicating that a small group of regular, large-scale purchasers drives the bulk of trade. This cluster handled 6.36 thousand shipments totaling 5.06 billion dollars, defining the market as reliant on steady, high-volume transactions typical for commodity exports like palm oil.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other buyer groups play distinct roles. Buyers with high value but low frequency contribute 10.70% of value, representing infrequent but substantial orders, often for spot purchases or bulk deals in commodity markets. Low-value, high-frequency buyers account for only 0.71% of value, consisting of frequent small orders, likely from smaller processors or regional distributors. Low-value, low-frequency buyers hold 2.92% of value, involving occasional minor purchases, possibly from new market entrants or niche users.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For Indonesian exporters, the strategy should prioritize nurturing relationships with dominant high-value, high-frequency buyers to ensure stability, while cautiously exploring opportunities in other segments to diversify risk. The heavy reliance on a few large buyers poses a vulnerability to market shifts, such as policy changes. Recent export tax increases, as noted in [Global Trade Alert], could impact cost structures, reinforcing the need for adaptive sales models that balance volume with flexibility.

Check Full Palm Oil Buyer lists

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q3 Export: Action Plan for Palm Oil Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q3 under HS Code 1511 operates as a bulk commodity market. Price is driven by global supply-demand balance and Indonesian export tax policies. Uniform pricing across grades confirms low product differentiation. Supply chains prioritize high-volume logistics to major buyers like Pakistan and India. This creates vulnerability to policy shifts or demand changes in a few key markets.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Palm Oil Market Execution

• Monitor buyer frequency data to anticipate order cycles and optimize inventory levels. This prevents stockouts or overstock during peak demand periods.
• Track real-time shipment volumes to key destinations like Pakistan and India. This allows quick rerouting if tariffs or policies disrupt traditional flows.
• Analyze competitor refining capacities in Malaysia and Thailand. This identifies opportunities to capture market share if regional processing costs shift.
• Use trade alert services to monitor export tax changes and biodiesel policy updates. This enables proactive cost management and contract renegotiation.
• Develop targeted offers for low-frequency, high-value buyers using historical purchase patterns. This diversifies revenue streams beyond dominant bulk buyers.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Palm Oil Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q3?

The export value rose 17% quarter-over-quarter to $5.95 billion, driven by higher volumes and a slight price increase. Policy shifts like Indonesia's August 2025 export tax hike and strong global demand (32.4% YoY growth) further influenced the trend.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q3?

Pakistan dominates with 13.05% of export value, followed by India and China. These top markets reflect uniform pricing and bulk commodity demand, with regional players like Bangladesh and Vietnam also key due to trade proximity.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q3 partner countries?

Prices cluster tightly around $1.00–1.11/kg, showing minimal variation. This uniformity confirms palm oil is traded as a fungible bulk commodity, with refined products (e.g., sub-code 15119037) dominating 45% of exports.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm Oil export market?

Prioritize relationships with high-value, high-frequency buyers (85.67% of export value) for stability, while diversifying into emerging markets to reduce reliance on concentrated destinations like Pakistan and India.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers benefit from stable, bulk-grade supply but face vulnerability to policy shifts (e.g., export taxes). High-volume purchasers like Pakistan and India secure consistent pricing, while niche buyers access limited small-order opportunities.

Q6. How is Palm Oil typically used in this trade flow?

Exports are primarily refined palm oil (e.g., sub-code 15119037) for food and industrial uses, traded as standardized bulk commodities. Crude palm oil (12% share) also supports domestic biodiesel and refining demand.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

Q8. How can yTrade benefit my business?

yTrade helps businesses:

• Identify active and verified buyers through global import data
• Discover reliable suppliers with real shipment history
• Monitor competitor previous trade activity
• Reduce sourcing and compliance risk with worldwide export data
• Support data-driven sales, procurement, and market expansion decisions
• Save time by replacing manual research with structured trade data analysis

Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

yTrade provides practical, trade-focused tools including:

• Global shipment search by HS code, product, company name, port, or country
• Detailed company trade profiles with ownership and relationship mapping
• Buyer and supplier discovery with real transaction trade records
• Basic compliance with background checks and sanctions risk screening
• Competitor's shipment tracking and selling/buying behaviour analysis
• Trade Trends to identify market demand and trade flow monitoring
• Big-Data Search engine with percised filters to generate accurate data reports
• Global Trade Data API access for Internal Softwares like CRM, ERP, and SaaS integration All data is structured, verified, and cleaned to ensure consistency and reliability.