Indonesia Palm Oil HS1511 Export Data 2025 August Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 August Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia's Palm Oil Export 2025 August (HS Code 1511) shows heavy reliance on price-sensitive bulk buyers, with Pakistan, India, and China Mainland accounting for over 35% of volume but favoring lower-priced crude grades. The market faces tightening margins as Indonesia's new export levy hikes costs by 10%, while domestic biodiesel demand grows. Buyers are highly concentrated, with South Asian markets driving volume but Southeast Asian hubs and developed economies forming secondary clusters. This analysis covers the 2025 August period and is based on processed Customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 August Export Background

Palm oil (HS Code 1511), including its fractions, is a critical commodity for food, biofuels, and cosmetics, driving steady global demand. Indonesia, the world's top exporter, recently adjusted its trade policies, raising export levies in August 2025 to $910.91/ton for crude palm oil (CPO) to support domestic biodiesel production [Palm-Chemicals]. With plans to boost biodiesel blending to 50% (B50) by 2026, Indonesia's export restrictions aim to balance domestic needs and international supply, reinforcing its strategic role in the palm oil trade.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 August Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia's palm oil exports in August 2025 saw a unit price rebound to 1.03 USD/kg, the highest since March and a 5.1% increase from July, driven by policy-induced cost adjustments.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The monthly trend for HS Code 1511 shows a price decline from 1.13 USD/kg in January to a low of 0.94 USD/kg in June, followed by a gradual recovery to 1.03 USD/kg in August. Export volume peaked in June at 2.40 billion kg but decreased to 2.24 billion kg in August, down 2.2% from July. This pattern aligns with palm oil industry cycles, where lower prices in mid-2025 likely stimulated export volumes, but rising domestic biodiesel demand under Indonesia's B40 mandate is now tightening supply and supporting price stabilization for Indonesia Palm Oil Export.

External Context and Outlook

The August price rise corresponds with Indonesia's levy overhaul on August 1, 2025, which increased the CPO reference price to $910.91 per ton [Palm Chemicals], elevating export costs. Further pressure comes from potential export curbs to support the B50 biodiesel program set for 2026 [Ukragroconsult], indicating sustained price support and possible volume constraints ahead for Indonesia Palm Oil Export.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 August Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

Indonesia's Palm Oil Export under HS Code 1511 in August 2025 is highly concentrated in refined palm oil products, with the sub-code 15119037 dominating at a 46% weight share, representing vegetable oils that are not crude but may be refined. Unit prices across most sub-codes are consistent at around 1.01 to 1.11 USD per kilogram, indicating a standardized commodity trade. Two minor sub-codes, 15119049 and 15119041, show slightly lower unit prices of 0.97 and 0.93 USD per kilogram respectively, but with negligible weight shares under 0.1%, so they are isolated as anomalies and excluded from the main analysis pool.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The export structure for HS Code 1511 splits into two clear categories: crude palm oil, represented by sub-code 15111000 with an 11.5% weight share, and refined palm oil fractions, which make up the bulk with sub-codes like 15119037 and 15119020. The refined products have nearly identical unit prices and descriptions, pointing to a market for fungible bulk commodities where prices are closely tied to global indices rather than product differentiation. This uniformity suggests that Indonesia's palm oil exports operate as a price-taking sector in international markets.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 August, the commodity nature of HS Code 1511 limits pricing power, making exports vulnerable to global price swings. However, recent policy shifts, such as increased export levies and domestic biodiesel mandates like the B50 program, could reduce export volumes and boost local demand, potentially strengthening Indonesia's market position [USDA Indonesia]. Exporters should focus on cost management and monitor policy changes closely, as these factors may temporarily enhance pricing leverage amid supply constraints.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 August Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

Indonesia's Palm Oil Export 2025 August shows strong reliance on three key buyers, with Pakistan, India, and China Mainland together taking over 35% of total export weight under HS Code 1511. Pakistan leads with 12.19% of volume but only 11.92% of value, indicating it buys lower-priced grades. India and China show similar patterns where their value ratios trail weight ratios by 0.2-0.5 points, confirming these top buyers primarily purchase bulk crude palm oil at competitive prices rather than premium refined products.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The importers form clear regional and economic clusters. The South Asian group (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh) represents high-volume, price-sensitive markets for cooking oil and basic food manufacturing. Southeast Asian neighbors (Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines) likely serve as processing hubs or re-export channels, taking mid-range volumes. Developed economies (US, Netherlands) form a third cluster with smaller but steady shipments, probably for specialized food processing or biofuel blending where quality requirements are stricter.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

Suppliers should prepare for tighter margins and potential volume shifts as Indonesia's new export levy structure [USDA] raises crude palm oil costs by 10% (USDA). The planned B50 biodiesel program (ukragroconsult) will further divert supplies domestic, forcing buyers to diversify sources or accept higher prices. Traders should lock in contracts with traditional partners like Pakistan and India while developing relationships with African or Eastern European markets to offset coming supply constraints.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 August Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

The Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 August market for HS Code 1511 is highly concentrated, with one segment of buyers dominating trade. Buyers who place large, frequent orders control 87.27% of the export value, indicating a market driven by consistent, high-volume purchases from a few key players. This dominance shapes the overall market as median transactions are high in both value and frequency, underscoring the commodity nature of palm oil where bulk, regular shipments are standard.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The remaining three segments play smaller but distinct roles. Buyers with high value but low frequency likely represent occasional bulk purchasers, such as processors securing large lots for specific needs. Those with low value but high frequency are probably smaller, regular buyers like local distributors maintaining steady supply chains. The segment with low value and low frequency may consist of infrequent, small-scale buyers, possibly spot purchasers or new market entrants testing demand.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For Indonesian exporters, strategic focus should remain on nurturing relationships with dominant high-volume buyers to ensure stable revenue. However, rising domestic biodiesel demand [USDA Indonesia] and potential export restrictions [Ukragroconsult] pose a risk to supply availability, while the B50 program expansion offers growth opportunities in local markets. Sales models must adapt to policy shifts, prioritizing flexibility in contracts and logistics to mitigate volatility from levy changes.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 August Export: Action Plan for Palm Oil Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 August under HS Code 1511 operates as a bulk commodity market. Prices are driven by global indices and policy changes, not product differentiation. High buyer concentration (87% value from frequent bulk orders) and geographic reliance on price-sensitive markets (Pakistan, India, China) create vulnerability to supply shocks. Supply chain implications include exposure to Indonesia’s domestic biodiesel demand (B50 program) and export levy hikes, which may divert volumes and raise costs for international buyers.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Palm Oil Market Execution

• Lock long-term contracts with top-volume buyers in Pakistan and India. This secures stable revenue despite potential supply shortages from Indonesian policy shifts.
• Diversify export destinations using trade data to target emerging markets in Africa or Eastern Europe. This reduces over-reliance on traditional Asian buyers and spreads market risk.
• Monitor Indonesian export levy and biodiesel policy updates weekly. Early awareness allows quick price adjustments and avoids margin compression from sudden cost increases.
• Optimize logistics for bulk shipments to high-frequency buyers. Consolidating shipments reduces per-unit costs and maintains competitiveness in a low-margin commodity trade.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Palm Oil Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 August?

The August 2025 price rebound to 1.03 USD/kg (+5.1% from July) stems from Indonesia's export levy overhaul and domestic biodiesel demand under the B40 mandate, tightening supply.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 August?

Pakistan (12.19% weight), India, and China Mainland dominate, collectively accounting for over 35% of Indonesia’s palm oil exports under HS Code 1511.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 August partner countries?

Price gaps reflect product grades: bulk crude palm oil (sub-code 15111000) sells at lower prices to South Asian buyers, while refined fractions (e.g., 15119037) command uniform rates near 1.01–1.11 USD/kg.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm Oil export market?

Exporters must prioritize high-volume buyers (87.27% of trade value) and monitor policy shifts like the B50 biodiesel program, which may divert supplies domestically.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers face tighter margins due to Indonesia’s 10% levy hike on crude palm oil and should diversify sources as domestic biodiesel demand reduces export availability.

Q6. How is Palm Oil typically used in this trade flow?

Exports under HS Code 1511 are primarily bulk commodities for cooking oil, food manufacturing, and biofuel blending, with limited product differentiation.

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