Indonesia Palm Oil HS1511 Export Data 2025 July Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 July Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 July under HS Code 1511 reveals a bulk commodity trade dominated by India (16.4% of volume), with regional demand split between South Asian consumers, Southeast Asian refiners, and distant bulk importers. Exporters face policy volatility as Indonesia hikes crude palm oil levies to 10%, prioritizing domestic biofuel programs. This analysis covers July 2025 and is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 July Export Background

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS Code 1511), which includes crude and refined palm oil without chemical modification, fuels global food, biofuel, and cosmetics industries due to its versatility and stable demand. In July 2025, Indonesia raised export levies to 10% for crude palm oil (CPO) and 9.5% for refined products, prioritizing domestic biofuel needs under its B40 mandate and replanting initiatives [FAS USDA]. As the world’s top exporter, Indonesia’s policy shifts directly impact global supply chains, balancing export revenue with local market obligations.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 July Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia's palm oil exports (HS Code 1511) saw a 4.3% MoM price rebound in July 2025 to $0.98/kg, despite a slight 4.6% drop in volume. This marks a partial recovery from June’s 4.1% price dip, suggesting resilience amid higher export levies and biofuel-driven domestic demand.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The July rebound followed a 6-month downtrend in unit prices, which fell 13.3% from January ($1.13/kg) to June ($0.94/kg). Volume fluctuations were sharper, peaking in June (+37.9% MoM) before easing in July, likely due to pre-levy adjustments in May-June [apps.fas.usda.gov]. The palm oil industry’s stock cycle played a role: exporters rushed shipments ahead of the August levy hike, then adjusted to tighter post-July trade conditions.

External Context and Outlook

Indonesia’s 10% CPO export levy (up from 7.5% in May) and B50 biofuel mandate (targeting 2026) are diverting supply domestically, squeezing global availability [ukragroconsult.com]. While temporary tax cuts in June provided short-term relief, the long-term policy tilt toward biofuel and replanting programs will likely keep export volumes volatile. Buyers like India and China may face tighter supply, sustaining price pressures into Q4.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 July Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In July 2025, Indonesia's palm oil export under HS Code 1511 is heavily concentrated in refined palm oil, specifically the sub-code for vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified. This sub-code holds a 44 percent value share and a 45 percent weight share, with a unit price of $0.96 per kg, indicating its dominance in the market. The unit prices across sub-codes are relatively consistent, ranging from $0.90 to $1.08 per kg, with no extreme anomalies to isolate, suggesting a standardized export profile for Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 July.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The sub-codes can be grouped into two main categories based on processing stage: crude palm oil and refined palm oil. Crude palm oil, represented by a single sub-code, has a unit price of $1.00 per kg and a 16 percent value share. Refined palm oil, covering all other sub-codes, has unit prices between $0.95 and $1.08 per kg and collectively dominates the export volume. This structure points to a trade in fungible bulk commodities, where products are largely undifferentiated and likely linked to global price indices, rather than specialized manufactured goods.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For market players, the high concentration in refined palm oil under HS Code 1511 suggests limited pricing power due to commodity nature, with exports sensitive to policy changes. Indonesia's increased export levies and biodiesel mandates, as reported [USDA], may further constrain export volumes and elevate costs, urging exporters to focus on cost efficiency and compliance with domestic market obligations to maintain competitiveness in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 July. (USDA)

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 July Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 July shows a highly concentrated market, with India as the dominant buyer accounting for 16.4% of total weight and 16.52% of value under HS Code 1511. The near-identical value and weight ratios for most top partners confirm this is a bulk commodity trade, where shipments are priced by weight rather than product differentiation.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The top buyers form three clear clusters: major South Asian consumers (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh), Southeast Asian processing hubs (Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines, Myanmar), and individual large-volume importers (China, United States, Egypt). This pattern reflects both regional demand and processing economics, where neighboring countries import crude palm oil for refining and re-export, while distant markets import finished products.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

Exporters face policy volatility as Indonesia uses export levies to fund domestic biofuel programs, having raised crude palm oil duties to 10% in May 2025 [USDA] while considering further export curbs to support its B50 biodiesel mandate [Ecofin Agency]. Buyers should diversify sources and secure long-term contracts to manage supply risks from Indonesia's shifting export policies.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 July Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

In July 2025, Indonesia's palm oil export market under HS Code 1511 is highly concentrated, with one group of buyers dominating the trade. These buyers, who make large and frequent purchases, account for 83.42% of the total export value. This segment handles 78.06% of all transactions and 83.66% of the quantity, showing that the market relies heavily on consistent, high-volume orders. The overall buyer base is split into four segments, but this dominant group defines the market's steady and bulk-driven nature for Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 July.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other buyer segments play specific roles. Buyers who place large but infrequent orders contribute 12.29% of the value, often representing spot or seasonal purchases common in commodity trades like palm oil. Those with frequent but smaller transactions add only 1.53% in value, typically serving niche or local markets with steady low-volume demand. Lastly, infrequent and small buyers account for 2.76% of value, likely including new or occasional entrants testing the market. Each group supports the export flow by addressing different demand patterns.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For Indonesian exporters, the strategy should focus on maintaining strong ties with the dominant high-volume buyers to ensure stable revenue, while cautiously engaging with infrequent large buyers for opportunistic gains. However, policy risks loom, as Indonesia has raised export levies to 10% for crude palm oil to fund biofuel programs, which could increase costs and squeeze export margins [USDA]. Exporters must adapt to these changes by securing long-term contracts and monitoring domestic policies that may restrict shipments, as seen with potential export curbs to support biodiesel mandates (USDA).

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 July Export: Action Plan for Palm Oil Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 July under HS Code 1511 operates as a bulk commodity trade. Prices are driven by global indices and Indonesian policy shifts, not product differentiation. Supply chains face high concentration risk in both buyers and destinations. Domestic biofuel mandates and export levies constrain volumes and elevate costs. Exporters must prioritize supply security and cost efficiency.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Palm Oil Market Execution

• Monitor HS Code 1511 sub-categories weekly. Track changes in crude versus refined palm oil volumes. This identifies how domestic biofuel policies are redirecting supply and impacting your available export quota.
• Use buyer transaction frequency data. Segment your customers into high-volume and opportunistic buyers. This allows you to prioritize contract negotiations with core partners to secure stable revenue against policy shocks.
• Analyze real-time shipment data to key hubs like India and Malaysia. Identify any slowdowns in refining hubs. This provides early warning of regional demand shifts or logistical bottlenecks that could affect your sales cycle.
• Secure long-term contracts with high-frequency, high-volume buyers. Lock in volumes and prices. This protects your margins from sudden cost increases caused by Indonesia's fluctuating export levies and domestic obligations.

Key Takeaway: Success in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 July hinges on anticipating policy changes. Traditional market analysis fails because it misses sub-code and buyer behavior details. Your advantage comes from using granular trade data to navigate this volatile landscape.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 July?

Indonesia's palm oil exports saw a 4.3% MoM price rebound in July 2025, recovering from a 6-month downtrend, driven by higher export levies and biofuel mandates diverting supply domestically.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 July?

India dominates with 16.52% of export value, followed by South Asian (Pakistan, Bangladesh) and Southeast Asian (Malaysia, Vietnam) clusters, reflecting regional demand and refining hubs.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 July partner countries?

Prices are standardized ($0.90–$1.08/kg) as exports are bulk commodities, with refined palm oil (44% value share) slightly pricier than crude ($1.00/kg).

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm Oil export market?

Exporters must secure long-term contracts with dominant high-volume buyers (83.42% of trade) while adapting to policy risks like Indonesia’s 10% export levy.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers face supply volatility due to Indonesia’s biofuel policies and should diversify sources, especially India and China, which rely heavily on Indonesian supply.

Q6. How is Palm Oil typically used in this trade flow?

Exports are primarily refined palm oil for food and industrial use, with crude palm oil often re-exported after processing in regional hubs like Malaysia.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

Q8. How can yTrade benefit my business?

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Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

yTrade provides practical, trade-focused tools including:

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