Indonesia Palm Oil HS1511 Export Data 2025 January Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 January Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia’s palm oil exports under HS Code 1511 in January 2025 reveal Pakistan as the dominant buyer, accounting for 13.4% of total weight, though its lower value share suggests bulk crude shipments. The market shows strong geographic clustering, with high-volume importers like the U.S. and Bangladesh alongside regional neighbors benefiting from proximity. This analysis, covering January 2025, is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 January Export Background

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS Code 1511), which includes crude and refined palm oil without chemical modification, fuels global food, biofuel, and cosmetics industries due to its versatility and high demand. In 2025, Indonesia's export policies shifted dramatically, with levies rising to 10% for crude palm oil in May [FAS USDA] and potential curbs to meet domestic biodiesel targets [Ecofin Agency]. As the world's top exporter, Indonesia's moves directly impact global supply chains, making its January 2025 trade decisions critical for buyers and markets.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 January Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia's palm oil exports in January 2025 started strongly with a unit price of 1.13 USD/kg and a volume of 1.22 billion kg, resulting in a total value of 1.39 billion USD for HS Code 1511, reflecting typical seasonal stability in early-year trade.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The unit price and volume data for January indicate steady performance, likely driven by consistent production cycles and stock availability post-harvest, which is common for palm oil at this time of year. Without specific QoQ or YoY comparative data, the figures suggest a balanced supply-demand dynamic, though the volume points to sustained export momentum as Indonesia prepares for potential policy shifts later in the year.

External Context and Outlook

External factors, such as Indonesia's planned increase in export levies from May 2025 [FAS USDA] and considerations for export curbs to support the B50 biofuel mandate (EcoFin Agency), are set to tighten global supply and potentially elevate prices. These developments could impact Indonesia palm oil export trends moving forward, emphasizing the need to monitor policy announcements for HS Code 1511.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 January Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In January 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports under HS Code 1511 were heavily concentrated in refined palm oil, with the sub-code for refined palm oil (HS 15119037) dominating at 46% of the value and 47% of the weight, reflecting a unit price of 1.12 USD per kilogram. This sub-code represents the bulk of trade, indicating a focus on standardized, processed products. An anomaly is present with HS 15119049, which has a very low quantity of 28 thousand kilograms and is isolated from the main analysis due to its insignificant share.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The remaining sub-codes fall into two main categories: refined palm oil variants and crude palm oil. Refined oils, such as HS 15119020 and HS 15119036, make up the majority with unit prices ranging from 1.09 to 1.24 USD per kilogram, showing minimal variation and suggesting a trade in fungible bulk commodities linked to global indices. Crude palm oil (HS 15111000) accounts for a smaller share at 2% of the value, with a similar unit price of 1.16 USD per kilogram, reinforcing the commodity nature of this market.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 January under HS Code 1511, the high concentration in refined products grants significant pricing power, but this is tempered by policy risks, such as potential export curbs or levy changes aimed at supporting domestic biofuel mandates [USDA]. Market players should focus on securing stable supply chains and monitoring regulatory shifts to mitigate volatility.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 January Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

In January 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports under HS Code 1511 showed strong concentration, with Pakistan as the top importer by both weight and value. Pakistan held a 13.43% share of total weight and a 13.01% value share, indicating a slight disparity where value ratio is lower than weight ratio. This suggests Pakistan may be receiving more bulk or lower-value crude palm oil shipments. The analysis for Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 January highlights this pattern.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The importers form two main clusters: first, high-volume destinations like Pakistan, the United States, Bangladesh, and Egypt, which likely import large quantities for direct consumption or refining due to their significant market size. Second, regional neighbors such as Myanmar, Philippines, and Malaysia, where geographic proximity reduces shipping costs and supports frequent trade. These clusters reflect typical commodity trade flows, driven by demand and logistics efficiency.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

For market players, the geographic spread calls for monitoring Indonesia's domestic policies, such as biofuel mandates, which could tighten export supply. Recent news indicates potential export curbs and levy changes [USDA], suggesting exporters should diversify buyers to mitigate risks from sudden policy shifts in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 January.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 January Export: Action Plan for Palm Oil Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

The Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 January under HS Code 1511 operates as a bulk commodity market. Price drivers center on global index linkage and Indonesian policy shifts, not product differentiation. Refined palm oil dominates trade, indicating a processing hub role. Supply chain implications focus on securing raw material access amid potential export curbs or levy changes. Geographic and buyer concentration increases vulnerability to single-market disruptions.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Palm Oil Market Execution

• Track Indonesian regulatory updates weekly using official sources. This prevents sudden cost spikes from policy changes like levy hikes.
• Use buyer frequency data to identify stock cycles and align shipments. This avoids overstock and ensures timely delivery to high-value clients.
• Monitor Pakistan and other top importers for order pattern shifts. This anticipates demand drops and redirects surplus efficiently.
• Diversify into secondary buyer segments with targeted offers. This reduces reliance on dominant buyers and stabilizes revenue streams.
• Analyze sub-code unit prices monthly to spot premium opportunities. This captures marginal gains in a standardized market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 January?

The stability in early 2025 is driven by consistent production cycles, but upcoming policy shifts like export levy increases and potential curbs for biofuel mandates may tighten supply and elevate prices.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 January?

Pakistan is the top importer, accounting for 13.43% of weight and 13.01% of value, followed by the United States, Bangladesh, and Egypt, which form high-volume clusters.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 January partner countries?

Price differences stem from product specialization—refined palm oil (e.g., HS 15119037 at 1.12 USD/kg) dominates, while crude palm oil (HS 15111000) trades at 1.16 USD/kg, reflecting bulk commodity pricing.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm Oil export market?

Exporters should prioritize relationships with high-value, high-frequency buyers (82.59% of trade) while diversifying markets to mitigate risks from potential policy disruptions.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers in key markets like Pakistan can expect stable bulk supply, but must monitor Indonesia’s policy changes, which may reduce availability or increase costs later in 2025.

Q6. How is Palm Oil typically used in this trade flow?

Palm oil is primarily traded as refined bulk commodities for food or industrial use, with minor crude oil shipments likely for further processing.