Indonesia Palm Oil HS1511 Export Data 2025 Q2 Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q2 Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Export under HS Code 1511 in 2025 Q2 saw China dominate as the top importer, accounting for 14% of volume but slightly lower value share, signaling bulk, lower-margin shipments. The market remains heavily concentrated in Asia, with China, India, and Pakistan forming the core demand cluster, exposing reliance on a few high-volume buyers. This analysis, based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database, highlights both geographic and buyer concentration risks for Indonesia’s Palm Oil Export 2025 Q2.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q2 Export Background

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS Code 1511), which includes crude and refined palm oil without chemical modification, is a key ingredient in food, biofuels, and cosmetics, driving steady global demand. In 2025 Q2, Indonesia raised export levies to 10% for crude palm oil and adjusted taxes to prioritize domestic biodiesel needs, aiming to support its B40 mandate and future B50 expansion [FAS USDA]. As the world’s top palm oil exporter, Indonesia’s policy shifts directly impact global supply and prices, balancing export revenue with local industry growth.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q2 Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia's palm oil exports under HS Code 1511 in Q2 2025 saw a significant price decline, with unit prices dropping to $0.94/kg in June, while export volumes surged, reflecting a shift toward higher quantity at lower margins compared to Q1.

Price and Volume Dynamics

Quarter-over-quarter, the average unit price fell from approximately $1.10/kg in Q1 to $1.00/kg in Q2, with volumes increasing slightly. This price drop aligns with typical industry responses to policy changes, where exporters may ramp up shipments ahead of anticipated restrictions, leading to temporary oversupply and lower prices. The sharp volume rise in June, reaching 2.40 billion kg, suggests stock drawdowns or preemptive exports before potential curbs.

External Context and Outlook

The volatility is directly tied to Indonesia's policy shifts, including the export levy increase to 10% for crude palm oil in May [USDA Report] and discussions around export curbs to support the B50 biodiesel mandate (Ecofin Agency). Looking ahead, further domestic demand from biodiesel blending could tighten export supply, potentially stabilizing or raising prices in subsequent quarters.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q2 Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In 2025 Q2, the Indonesia Palm Oil Export under HS Code 1511 is dominated by refined palm oil, specifically the sub-code for palm oil fractions other than crude, which holds a 50% value share and 51% weight share of total exports. This product, with a unit price of $0.96 per kilogram, shows strong specialization in bulk, processed oils, indicating a focus on high-volume, standardized output. The analysis period reveals no extreme price anomalies, with all major sub-codes trading within a narrow price range, confirming a concentrated market around this key product.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The export structure under HS Code 1511 splits into two main groups: refined palm oil fractions, which make up the majority of shipments with unit prices from $0.96 to $1.13 per kilogram, and crude palm oil, which has a smaller share but similar pricing at $1.00 per kilogram. This tight clustering of prices across grades suggests that Indonesia's palm oil trade operates as a fungible bulk commodity, closely tied to global indices rather than differentiated manufactured goods. The consistency in unit costs points to a market where quality variations are minimal, and trade is driven by volume and efficiency.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q2 under HS Code 1511, the commodity-like structure limits individual pricing power, forcing exporters to compete on cost and scale. Recent policy changes, such as increased export levies [FAS USDA] and domestic biofuel mandates, may squeeze margins but could stabilize demand through local consumption. Strategic focus should be on optimizing logistics and adhering to regulatory shifts to maintain competitiveness in a price-sensitive global market.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q2 Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

In 2025 Q2, Indonesia Palm Oil Export under HS Code 1511 was heavily concentrated, with China Mainland as the dominant importer, accounting for 14.00% of weight and 13.33% of value. The slight disparity where value ratio is lower than weight ratio suggests that exports to China may involve more bulk or less refined palm oil, typical for commodity trade where volume drives over unit price. This pattern indicates a focus on high-volume, lower-margin shipments in the Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q2.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The top importers form clear clusters: first, China, India, and Pakistan, with high volume shares, likely due to geographic proximity and established trade routes in Asia for palm oil as a staple commodity. Second, Bangladesh, United States, and Egypt, with moderate volumes, possibly driven by specific import demands for food or biofuel feedstocks. Third, Russia, Philippines, and Saudi Arabia, with lower volumes, might represent emerging or niche markets influenced by bilateral agreements or regional supply gaps.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

For market players, the heavy reliance on Indonesia for palm oil imports requires attention to policy risks, such as recent export levy hikes and potential restrictions aimed at supporting domestic biofuel programs like B40 and B50 [USDA]. Importers should diversify sources or secure long-term contracts to buffer against supply volatility and cost increases from Indonesia's shifting export policies (USDA).

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q2 Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

In 2025 Q2, the Indonesia Palm Oil Export market for HS Code 1511 shows strong concentration, with one group of buyers dominating by handling 89.56% of the total export value. These buyers purchase frequently and in large quantities, making them the core of the trade. The market is characterized by high-volume, regular transactions, with this dominant segment also accounting for 81.04% of shipment frequency. This structure points to a reliance on a small number of key players in the four segments of buyers analyzed.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other buyer groups play distinct roles. Buyers with high value but low frequency likely represent large-scale processors or refiners making occasional bulk purchases for specific needs. Those with low value but high frequency are probably smaller, regular buyers such as local distributors or spot market participants. The low value and low frequency group consists of infrequent, small-quantity purchasers, possibly niche users or trial buyers. Each cluster supports the market by catering to different demand patterns in this commodity trade.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For exporters in Indonesia, the strategy should focus on nurturing relationships with the dominant high-frequency, high-volume buyers to ensure stable revenue. However, this concentration poses a risk if policies shift, such as the recent increase in export levies and domestic biodiesel mandates [USDA], which could squeeze export supplies (USDA). Opportunities lie in adapting to higher domestic demand from biofuel programs, while sales should prioritize efficient, bulk logistics to serve key clients and mitigate vulnerability to policy changes.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q2 Export: Action Plan for Palm Oil Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q2 under HS Code 1511 operates as a bulk commodity. Price is driven by global palm oil indices and Indonesian policy shifts like export levies and biofuel mandates. Supply chain implications focus on supply security and processing efficiency. High buyer concentration and Asian market reliance increase vulnerability to policy changes. Exporters must prioritize cost control and volume logistics.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Palm Oil Market Execution

• Monitor buyer purchase frequency data to anticipate stock cycles. This prevents inventory overstock and aligns production with demand.
• Track Indonesian policy updates on export levies and domestic biofuel programs. Adjust pricing strategies early to protect margins from sudden cost increases.
• Use shipment data to identify and nurture relationships with high-volume buyers in key markets like China and India. Secure long-term contracts to ensure stable revenue streams.
• Analyze sub-code unit prices under HS Code 1511 to spot premium product opportunities. Shift some output to higher-value refined fractions to improve profitability.
• Diversify export destinations using trade flow data. Reduce reliance on top markets by targeting emerging importers like Russia or Saudi Arabia to mitigate policy risks.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Palm Oil Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q2?

The price decline to $0.94/kg in June reflects a surge in export volumes, likely due to preemptive shipments ahead of Indonesia's increased export levies and domestic biodiesel mandates.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q2?

China dominates with 14% of weight and 13.33% of value, followed by India and Pakistan, which form a high-volume Asian cluster.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q2 partner countries?

Prices cluster tightly ($0.96–$1.13/kg) because exports are bulk-commoditized, with refined palm oil fractions (50% value share) driving uniformity.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm Oil export market?

Prioritize high-volume buyers (89.56% of value) and optimize logistics to offset margin pressures from export levies and biofuel policies.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers face reliance on concentrated supply; long-term contracts or diversification are advised to mitigate policy-driven volatility.

Q6. How is Palm Oil typically used in this trade flow?

Primarily traded as a bulk commodity for food industries and biofuel feedstocks, with minimal quality differentiation.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

Q8. How can yTrade benefit my business?

yTrade helps businesses:

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Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

yTrade provides practical, trade-focused tools including:

• Global shipment search by HS code, product, company name, port, or country
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