Indonesia Palm Oil HS1511 Export Data 2025 May Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 May Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia’s palm oil exports under HS Code 1511 in May 2025 were dominated by bulk shipments to cost-sensitive markets, with CHINA MAINLAND leading at 10.64% of total weight, followed by INDIA and PAKISTAN, reflecting stable pricing but high geographic concentration. Buyer behavior shows reliance on large-scale orders from major economies, while smaller, frequent shipments cater to regional markets like the PHILIPPINES. The market remains exposed to supply chain risks due to Indonesia’s export levy hikes and domestic biofuel mandates, urging importers to secure long-term contracts. This analysis, covering May 2025, is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 May Export Background

Palm Oil (HS Code 1511) includes crude and refined palm oil and its fractions, widely used in food, cosmetics, and biofuels due to its versatility and cost efficiency. Global demand remains strong, driven by its role in everyday products. In May 2025, Indonesia raised export levies to 10% for crude palm oil [FAS USDA] and restricted residue exports to prioritize domestic biodiesel production under its B40 mandate. As the world’s top palm oil exporter, Indonesia’s policies directly impact global supply and prices, reinforcing its strategic role in the trade.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 May Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports saw a significant drop in unit price to $0.98 per kg, the lowest point in the year, while export volume surged to 1.75 billion units, indicating a sharp market shift.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The month-over-month comparison from April to May shows a 9.3% decrease in unit price and a 68.3% increase in volume, which aligns with typical industry cycles where exporters accelerate shipments ahead of anticipated policy changes to avoid higher costs or restrictions. This pattern is common in palm oil markets, where stock movements often precede regulatory implementations, leading to temporary price softness and volume spikes.

External Context and Outlook

This volatility is directly driven by Indonesia's policy adjustments, including the raised export levies in May [USDA] and ongoing export restrictions to support the B40 biodiesel mandate (S&P Global). With plans to advance to B50 blending (Reccessary), future Indonesia Palm Oil Export under HS Code 1511 may face tighter supplies, potentially elevating global prices as domestic demand prioritization intensifies.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 May Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports under HS Code 1511 are heavily concentrated in a specific refined product. The dominating sub-code is refined palm oil (not crude), which accounts for over half of the export value and weight, with a unit price of $0.96 per kilogram. This high concentration indicates a focus on bulk, standardized exports for this period.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The remaining sub-codes can be grouped into three categories: crude palm oil with a slightly higher unit price of $1.02 per kilogram, standard refined oils with prices around $0.96 to $0.98 per kilogram, and a higher-value refined grade at $1.13 per kilogram. The narrow price range and bulk quantities suggest that Indonesia's palm oil trade under HS Code 1511 operates as a fungible commodity, closely tied to global market indices rather than highly differentiated products.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 May, the commodity-like structure implies limited pricing power for individual exporters, as prices are influenced by global supply and demand. However, recent policy changes, such as increased export levies to support domestic biodiesel mandates [USDA], could tighten supply and potentially strengthen Indonesia's market position by prioritizing domestic processing over raw exports.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 May Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports showed strong geographic concentration, with CHINA MAINLAND as the dominant importer by weight, accounting for 10.64% of total weight. The value ratio for CHINA MAINLAND is 10.07%, slightly lower than its weight ratio, indicating a marginally lower unit price per kilogram, which is common for bulk commodity purchases like palm oil under HS Code 1511. This pattern suggests that Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 May is primarily driven by high-volume, cost-sensitive markets, with INDIA and PAKISTAN also playing significant roles but with closer alignment between value and weight ratios, hinting at stable pricing.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The top importers form two clear clusters: first, high-volume buyers like CHINA MAINLAND, INDIA, and PAKISTAN, which together represent over 30% of weight, likely due to their large food processing industries and population demands for edible oils. Second, countries with moderate volumes but higher shipment frequency, such as PHILIPPINES and MALAYSIA, suggest regular, smaller-scale purchases for regional distribution or niche markets, possibly influenced by geographic proximity and trade agreements. This clustering reflects the commodity nature of palm oil, where bulk orders dominate from major economies, while frequent, smaller shipments cater to adjacent markets.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

Buyers should anticipate potential cost increases and supply tightness due to Indonesia's recent policy changes, including raised export levies and restrictions on certain palm oil products to support domestic biodiesel mandates [USDA]. To mitigate risks, importers could diversify sources or lock in long-term contracts, especially as global palm oil prices may rise (USDA). For Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 May, focusing on value-added products or securing stable logistics will be key under HS Code 1511, given the shift towards domestic biofuel use.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 May Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

In the Indonesia Palm Oil Export for May 2025 under HS Code 1511, the buyer market is highly concentrated, with one segment of buyers dominating trade value. Buyers with high value and high frequency transactions hold 79.09% of the export value, indicating a market characterized by regular, large-scale purchases. This analysis of four segments of buyers shows that the dominant group drives most of the activity, with frequent and high-value deals defining the overall market.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other buyer segments serve distinct roles. Buyers with high value but low frequency likely represent large, infrequent purchases, such as for specific projects or bulk orders. Those with low value but high frequency are probably smaller, regular buyers like local distributors handling smaller volumes. The group with low value and low frequency consists of occasional small buyers with minimal trade impact, possibly for niche or trial purposes.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For exporters in Indonesia, the strategic focus should be on maintaining strong relationships with the dominant high-value, high-frequency buyers to ensure steady revenue. A key risk is increased costs from policy changes, such as the raised export levies reported by [USDA], which could squeeze margins. The sales model must prioritize contract flexibility and cost management to adapt to such regulatory shifts.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 May Export: Action Plan for Palm Oil Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 May under HS Code 1511 operates as a bulk commodity. Prices are driven by global supply-demand indices and domestic policy shifts, like increased export levies for biodiesel. This creates supply chain implications of potential tightness and higher costs. Indonesia's role is as a processing hub, but exporters face margin pressure from concentrated, high-volume buyers.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Palm Oil Market Execution

• Use HS Code sub-category data to track refined vs. crude oil ratios. This identifies premium product opportunities to offset policy-driven cost increases.
• Analyze buyer frequency reports to lock in contracts with high-value, regular clients. This ensures stable revenue despite market volatility.
• Monitor real-time policy alerts from sources like USDA on export levies. This allows quick pricing adjustments to protect margins.
• Diversify buyer portfolios with geographic trade data targeting moderate-frequency importers. This reduces over-reliance on single markets and spreads risk.

Final Note: Data Over Tradition

Traditional market analysis misses key details like individual buyer patterns and sub-product flows. Trade data reveals these insights, enabling proactive strategy rather than reactive guesswork for Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 May under HS Code 1511.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Palm Oil Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 May?

The unit price dropped 9.3% to $0.98/kg while volume surged 68.3%, driven by exporters accelerating shipments ahead of Indonesia's raised export levies and domestic biodiesel mandates.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 May?

CHINA MAINLAND dominates with 10.64% of weight, followed by INDIA and PAKISTAN, which collectively account for over 30% of total exports.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 May partner countries?

Prices vary by product grade: bulk refined palm oil trades at $0.96/kg, crude at $1.02/kg, and a premium refined grade at $1.13/kg, with China paying slightly lower rates for high-volume purchases.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm Oil export market?

Exporters must prioritize relationships with high-value, high-frequency buyers (79% of trade value) and adapt to policy shifts like higher levies by optimizing contract terms.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers face potential supply tightness and rising costs due to Indonesia's biodiesel policies, necessitating long-term contracts or diversification to mitigate risks.

Q6. How is Palm Oil typically used in this trade flow?

It is primarily traded as a bulk commodity for food processing and biofuels, with standardized refined products dominating exports.

Q7. What is yTrade?

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