Indonesia Palm Oil HS1511 Export Data 2025 October Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 October Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia’s palm oil exports under HS Code 1511 in October 2025 were dominated by bulk crude shipments to China, which accounted for 16% of volume, signaling reliance on a single high-volume buyer. Asian markets like Pakistan and Bangladesh drove regional demand, while the U.S. and Italy imported smaller, likely higher-value shipments. This analysis, covering October 2025, is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database. Buyers should anticipate supply risks as Indonesia may prioritize domestic biodiesel mandates, tightening global availability. The market shows concentrated buyer dependence, with China’s bulk purchases underscoring vulnerability to policy shifts. Diversification or long-term contracts could mitigate exposure for Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 October.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 October Export Background

Palm oil (HS Code 1511), a versatile commodity used in food, biofuels, and cosmetics, drives global demand due to its cost efficiency and wide applications. Indonesia, the world's top exporter, is tightening palm oil export policies in October 2025, raising levies and considering restrictions to meet its B50 biodiesel mandate, which could squeeze global supply [Ecofin Agency]. These moves highlight Indonesia's strategic role in balancing domestic energy needs with international market stability.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 October Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia's palm oil exports in October 2025 showed a slight increase in volume and stable pricing compared to September, with volume rising to 1.35 billion units and unit price holding at 1.08 USD/kg, reflecting cautious market behavior amid policy uncertainties.

Price and Volume Dynamics

Month-over-month, export volume for HS Code 1511 increased by 4.7% from 1.29B in September to 1.35B in October, while the unit price edged up marginally from 1.07 to 1.08 USD/kg. This follows typical palm oil seasonal patterns, where prices often stabilize or rise slightly towards year-end as production cycles taper and domestic stockpiling for biodiesel increases. The overall trend in 2025 saw a price dip to 0.94 USD/kg in June during peak harvest season, with a gradual recovery supported by anticipatory buying ahead of potential supply constraints.

External Context and Outlook

Indonesia's ongoing policy reviews, including potential export restrictions to meet the B50 biodiesel mandate [FAS USDA], have injected volatility, explaining the stable yet nervous export figures in October. With domestic demand set to surge, Indonesia Palm Oil Export volumes may face downward pressure, likely supporting higher global prices in the near term.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 October Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In October 2025, Indonesia's palm oil export under HS Code 1511 was heavily concentrated in refined palm oil fractions, specifically the product described as vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified. This sub-code accounted for about half of the total export value and weight, with a unit price of approximately 1.05 USD per kilogram. No extreme price anomalies were present in the data.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The export structure for HS Code 1511 divides into two main categories: crude palm oil and various refined palm oil fractions. Crude palm oil represents a smaller share with a unit price near 1.13 USD/kg, while refined fractions show unit prices ranging from 1.05 to 1.17 USD/kg, indicating minor variations possibly due to different processing levels or grades. This uniformity suggests a bulk commodity trade, where products are largely fungible and likely tied to global market indices rather than being highly differentiated manufactured goods.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 October, the commodity nature of HS Code 1511 products means pricing power is primarily influenced by global supply and demand dynamics. However, government policies such as export restrictions to support domestic biodiesel production could tighten supply and elevate prices. [USDA Report] highlights increased export levies, which may raise costs for buyers and shift strategic focus towards securing stable supplies or diversifying sources.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 October Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

In October 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports were highly concentrated, with CHINA MAINLAND as the dominant importer, accounting for 15.86% of the value and 16.44% of the weight under HS Code 1511. The slight disparity where value ratio is lower than weight ratio suggests that China imports bulk, lower-unit-price crude palm oil, typical for commodity trades like Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 October.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The top importers form two clear clusters: Asian nations like PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, VIETNAM, and PHILIPPINES show high volume and frequency, driven by regional proximity and strong demand for cooking oil and biofuels. A second cluster includes the UNITED STATES and ITALY, with moderate volumes but lower shipment frequency, likely for specialized or processed palm oil products in Western markets.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

Buyers should prepare for potential supply tightness and price increases due to Indonesia's possible export restrictions aimed at supporting its B50 biodiesel mandate, as reported by [USDA] and (UkrAgroConsult). Diversifying sources or securing long-term contracts could mitigate risks for HS Code 1511 imports.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 October Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

In October 2025, Indonesia's Palm Oil Export under HS Code 1511 shows a highly concentrated buyer market, dominated by a small segment of high-value, high-frequency buyers who account for 84% of the export value. This group, with companies like PACIFIC MEDAN INDUSTRI and LDC INDONESIA, drives the majority of trade, indicating that a few large, regular purchasers define the market dynamics for this commodity. The analysis covers four segments of buyers, with this dominant cluster handling over 1.2 billion dollars in value across numerous transactions.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other buyer segments play specific roles: high-value, low-frequency buyers, such as PERINDUSTRIAN SAWIT SYNERGI, contribute nearly 12% of value through infrequent but large purchases, likely representing spot or bulk buyers in the commodity market. Low-value, high-frequency buyers, including PT. SALIM IVOMAS PRATAMA TBK, make up only 1% of value but are active in frequent, smaller trades, possibly serving as regular distributors or smaller-scale importers. Low-value, low-frequency buyers, like Ancilian Cipta Sejahtera, add around 3% of value with sporadic small orders, which could indicate new market entrants or occasional traders.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For exporters in Indonesia, the strategy should focus on securing relationships with the dominant high-value buyers to maintain stable revenue, while monitoring risks from potential export restrictions. As reported by [USDA], Indonesia has raised export levies and is considering further curbs to support domestic biodiesel demand, which could squeeze global supply and increase vulnerability for reliant buyers. This underscores the need for a flexible sales model that can adapt to policy shifts, such as prioritizing domestic allocations or diversifying buyer bases to mitigate dependency on a few large clients.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 October Export: Action Plan for Palm Oil Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 October under HS Code 1511 operates as a bulk commodity trade. Core price drivers are global supply-demand balances and Indonesian government policies, like export levies and domestic biodiesel mandates. These policies can tighten supply and raise prices. The market is dominated by high-volume Asian buyers, led by China, importing crude and refined palm oil fractions. Supply chain implications center on supply security risks. Heavy reliance on a few large buyers and potential export curbs create vulnerability for importers. Indonesia functions as a key processing hub, but policy shifts may prioritize domestic needs over exports.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Palm Oil Market Execution

• Monitor buyer purchase frequency data. Identify regular high-volume clients like PACIFIC MEDAN INDUSTRI to forecast demand cycles and secure long-term contracts. This prevents revenue instability from order fluctuations.
• Track real-time policy announcements from Indonesian authorities. Set alerts for export levy changes or new restrictions to adjust pricing and sourcing immediately. This avoids cost surprises and supply gaps.
• Diversify sourcing partners using trade data. Identify alternative suppliers in Malaysia or Thailand for HS Code 1511 products if Indonesian exports face constraints. This reduces dependency on single-origin supply chains.
• Analyze port-level shipment data for top destinations like China and Pakistan. Observe shipping frequencies and volumes to optimize inventory levels and avoid overstock or shortages during policy shifts.

Final Note: Traditional market analysis misses critical buyer-level patterns and sub-product trends. Use detailed trade data to navigate this volatile commodity market effectively.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Palm Oil Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 October?

The slight volume increase (4.7% MoM) and stable pricing (1.08 USD/kg) reflect cautious trade amid Indonesia’s potential export restrictions to meet its B50 biodiesel mandate, as reported by USDA.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 October?

CHINA MAINLAND dominates (15.86% of value), followed by regional Asian buyers like PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, and VIETNAM, which import high volumes for cooking oil and biofuels.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 October partner countries?

Price variations (1.05–1.17 USD/kg) stem from product grades—China’s bulk crude palm oil trades at lower prices, while the US and Italy likely import refined fractions for specialized uses.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm Oil export market?

Secure relationships with high-value buyers (84% of trade value, e.g., PACIFIC MEDAN INDUSTRI) and monitor policy risks like export levies, which may tighten supply.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers in China and Asia face supply-chain vulnerability due to Indonesia’s potential export curbs; diversifying sources or locking in long-term contracts is advised.

Q6. How is Palm Oil typically used in this trade flow?

Primarily as a bulk commodity for cooking oil and biofuels, with refined fractions (e.g., chemically unmodified palm oil) serving specialized industrial or food applications.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

Q8. How can yTrade benefit my business?

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Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

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