Indonesia Palm Oil HS1511 Export Data 2025 Q1 Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q1 Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia's Palm Oil exports under HS Code 1511 in Q1 2025 reveal a standardized commodity with uniform pricing at USD 1.07/kg, driven by concentrated demand in South Asia (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh) and regional trade networks in East/Southeast Asia. Buyer risk is moderate, with Pakistan holding a 13.96% share by weight, while Indonesia's potential export restrictions for biodiesel could tighten supply. This analysis, based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database, highlights the need for exporters to prioritize logistics efficiency and buyers to diversify sources amid policy shifts.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q1 Export Background

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS Code 1511: palm oil and its fractions, refined or unrefined) fuels global food, biodiesel, and cosmetics industries, with steady demand despite economic slowdowns. In 2025 Q1, Indonesia’s exports surged 24.8% [MPOC], but flat annual growth is expected due to weak global demand [GAPKI]. As the world’s top producer, Indonesia balances export earnings with domestic biodiesel needs, considering new CPO restrictions to meet its B50 mandate [Ukragroconsult].

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q1 Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia's palm oil exports in Q1 2025 saw a sharp rise in volume, with unit prices falling steadily from January to March.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The unit price for Indonesia Palm Oil Export under HS Code 1511 dropped from 1.13 USD/kg in January to 1.08 USD/kg in March, while volumes peaked in February at 1.89 billion kg before a slight decline. This price decrease reflects typical seasonal supply increases from favorable weather in early 2025, which boosted production and export availability. Year-over-year, the strong volume growth aligns with reported surges in palm oil shipments, driven by high yields and stock releases.

External Context and Outlook

The price decline was influenced by Indonesia's potential export restrictions [ukragroconsult.com] aimed at securing domestic supply for biodiesel expansion, such as the B50 mandate. Good weather conditions in 2025 (fedepalma.org) supported higher output, easing prices despite robust demand. Future trends may hinge on policy shifts and global economic factors, affecting Indonesia Palm Oil Export stability under HS Code 1511.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q1 Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In 2025 Q1, Indonesia's Palm Oil Export under HS Code 1511 is heavily concentrated in refined palm oil fractions, with the sub-code for other than crude palm oil (15119037) accounting for nearly half of both the weight and value shipped. This product, described as vegetable oils not chemically modified, has a unit price of 1.09 USD per kilogram, aligning closely with other major codes. A minor anomaly exists with a negligible sub-code (15119042) at a much lower price, but it is isolated from the main analysis due to its insignificant share.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The export structure for HS Code 1511 in Indonesia's Palm Oil Export 2025 Q1 splits into two clear categories: crude palm oil (represented by 15111000) and non-crude, refined fractions (covering most other sub-codes like 15119020 and 15119036). Unit prices range narrowly from 1.07 to 1.20 USD per kilogram, indicating a trade in fungible bulk commodities where products are largely undifferentiated and likely priced against global market indices rather than brand or specific quality grades.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q1 under HS Code 1511, the commodity nature limits individual pricing power, making volumes sensitive to policy shifts. [Indonesia considers new palm oil export restrictions amid biodiesel push] suggests potential supply constraints from domestic biodiesel mandates, which could tighten global markets and marginally boost prices, but exporters must focus on cost efficiency and compliance with evolving regulations to maintain competitiveness. (Indonesia considers new palm oil export restrictions amid biodiesel push)

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q1 Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

In Q1 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports under HS Code 1511 show strong concentration, with Pakistan as the top destination holding a 13.96% share by weight. The close match between value ratio and weight ratio across all top countries, like Pakistan's 13.63% value share versus 13.96% weight share, indicates uniform unit pricing around USD 1.07 per kg, confirming palm oil as a standardized commodity with consistent grade.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The export patterns form three clear clusters: South Asia (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh) with high volumes due to nearby demand for food and biofuels; East and Southeast Asia (China, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam) with moderate shares driven by regional trade networks and processing needs; and scattered markets (US, Egypt, Russia) with lower volumes reflecting diverse, niche import demands. This clustering stems from geographic proximity and established supply chains for bulk commodity trade.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

For exporters, the concentrated demand in Asia requires focusing on reliable logistics and cost efficiency, while watching for policy shifts like Indonesia's potential export restrictions to support domestic biodiesel plans, which could tighten global supply [Ukragroconsult]. Buyers should diversify sources to mitigate risks from Indonesia's fluctuating export policies, especially with the B50 mandate looming (Ukragroconsult).

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q1 Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

For Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q1 under HS Code 1511, the buyer market shows strong concentration in one of the four segments of buyers. The dominant group consists of buyers with high value and high frequency, holding 84.45% of the total export value. This segment drives the market with regular, large-scale purchases, indicating a reliance on consistent, bulk trade flows during this period.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other buyer segments play smaller but distinct roles. Buyers with high value but low frequency contribute 12.89% of value, likely representing infrequent bulk purchasers or spot buyers in the commodity market. Buyers with low value but high frequency account for only 0.94% of value, suggesting small, routine buyers such as local distributors. Buyers with low value and low frequency make up 1.72% of value, probably consisting of occasional or niche market participants.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

Exporters in Indonesia should focus on securing relationships with the dominant high-value, high-frequency buyers to maintain stability. However, risks arise from potential export restrictions, as noted in news about Indonesia considering new palm oil export limits for biodiesel plans [ukragroconsult.com]. Opportunities may exist in expanding to markets like the EU under trade agreements. The sales model should emphasize volume and reliability to leverage the current buyer structure.

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Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 Q1 Export: Action Plan for Palm Oil Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q1 under HS Code 1511 operates as a bulk commodity trade. Prices are driven by global market indices and Indonesia's domestic policy shifts, especially biodiesel mandates. The supply chain implication is a focus on volume security and cost-efficient logistics to serve concentrated Asian markets. Exporters must prioritize reliable bulk shipments to high-frequency buyers in South and East Asia.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Palm Oil Market Execution

• Monitor Indonesian export policy announcements weekly to anticipate supply changes. This prevents sudden volume shortages.
• Use buyer frequency data to lock in contracts with high-value, high-frequency clients. This ensures stable revenue streams.
• Track real-time shipping costs to Asian hubs like Pakistan and India. This maintains cost competitiveness.
• Diversify buyer portfolios gradually to include more EU partners under trade agreements. This reduces dependency on single markets.
• Implement digital documentation for faster customs clearance in key ports. This avoids shipment delays.

Risk Assessment: Forward-Looking Market Constraints

Indonesia's potential export restrictions for biodiesel pose the largest risk. This could suddenly reduce global supply. Over-reliance on a few bulk buyers increases vulnerability to demand shocks. Climate events may also disrupt production cycles. Buyers should secure alternative sources now. Exporters must adapt quickly to policy changes to protect market share.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q1?

The unit price dropped from 1.13 USD/kg in January to 1.08 USD/kg in March due to seasonal supply increases from favorable weather, while volumes peaked in February. Potential export restrictions for biodiesel mandates could tighten future supply.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q1?

Pakistan is the top destination (13.96% by weight), followed by South Asian (India, Bangladesh) and East/Southeast Asian markets (China, Malaysia), reflecting regional demand for food and biofuels.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 Q1 partner countries?

Prices are uniform (~1.07 USD/kg) as exports are dominated by standardized refined palm oil fractions (e.g., HS 15119037), traded as fungible bulk commodities against global indices.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm Oil export market?

Prioritize relationships with high-value, high-frequency buyers (84.45% of export value) and monitor policy risks like biodiesel-driven export restrictions that may disrupt bulk trade flows.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers in Asia benefit from stable supply chains but should diversify sources to mitigate risks from Indonesia’s potential export policy shifts favoring domestic biodiesel needs.

Q6. How is Palm Oil typically used in this trade flow?

Exports under HS 1511 are primarily refined palm oil fractions for food processing and biofuels, traded as undifferentiated bulk commodities with minimal quality-grade variation.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

Q8. How can yTrade benefit my business?

yTrade helps businesses:

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Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

yTrade provides practical, trade-focused tools including:

• Global shipment search by HS code, product, company name, port, or country
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