Indonesia Palm Oil HS1511 Export Data 2025 September Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 September Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia's Palm Oil Export in 2025 September (HS Code 1511) reveals Pakistan as the dominant buyer, accounting for 13.5% of volume, with regional ASEAN partners forming a stable demand cluster. The market shows clear buyer segmentation—bulk purchases from Pakistan and Bangladesh, strategic large shipments to China and the U.S., and frequent smaller shipments to Vietnam and the Philippines. Exporters face tightening supply risks as Indonesia prioritizes domestic biodiesel demand, potentially squeezing global availability. This analysis, based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database, highlights both concentration risks and strategic opportunities for 2025 September trade flows.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 September Export Background

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS Code 1511: Palm oil and its fractions) fuels global food, biofuel, and cosmetics industries due to its versatility and cost efficiency. In 2025, Indonesia—the world’s top exporter—raised export levies to 10% for crude palm oil and 9.5% for refined products to support its B40 biodiesel mandate and domestic processing [USDA Indonesia]. With plans for stricter export controls ahead of the 2026 B50 program, Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 September remains pivotal for global supply chains [Ecofin Agency].

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 September Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

In September 2025, Indonesia Palm Oil Export under HS Code 1511 saw a sharp monthly decline, with volume dropping 42% and value falling 40% compared to August, while unit price edged up 4% to $1.07/kg amid tightened supply conditions.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The sequential slump in September exports reflects typical post-harvest seasonal adjustments, where peak production periods often lead to inventory drawdowns and reduced shipment volumes. However, the magnitude of this drop is amplified by policy-driven shifts; after export levies were hiked in May, August likely saw a surge as traders front-loaded shipments ahead of further potential restrictions, causing a sharper correction in September. Year-to-date, the $1.07/kg price remains subdued compared to early 2025 highs, indicating sustained pressure from domestic biofuel demand diverting supplies.

External Context and Outlook

Indonesia’s elevated export levies since May [USDA Indonesia] and ongoing debates around new curbs for the B50 biodiesel program [Ukragroconsult] are directly constraining global availability, explaining September’s volatility. With domestic consumption prioritized, Indonesia Palm Oil Export volumes under HS Code 1511 are expected to remain volatile through 2025, though prices may find support from structural supply tightness.

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 September Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In September 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports under HS Code 1511 were dominated by refined palm oil, specifically the sub-code for vegetable oils other than crude (15119037), which held nearly half of the export value and weight. This product has a unit price of 1.05 USD per kilogram, aligning closely with most other variants, indicating a standardized commodity focus. No extreme price anomalies were present in the data for this period.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The exports are split into crude palm oil and refined forms. Crude oil (15111000) constitutes a minor share with a unit price of 1.10 USD/kg. Refined oils show slight unit price variations from 1.04 to 1.15 USD/kg, hinting at minor grade differences, but the narrow range and bulk trade nature confirm this as a fungible commodity market, closely tied to global price indices rather than product differentiation.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

As a bulk commodity, pricing power is limited by global market forces, but Indonesia's policy shifts, such as raised export levies to boost domestic biodiesel demand [USDA], may reduce export volumes and increase costs. Exporters should prepare for potential supply constraints and higher prices driven by domestic biofuel programs.

Check Detailed HS 1511 Breakdown

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 September Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

Indonesia's Palm Oil Export in 2025 September shows strong concentration, with Pakistan as the dominant buyer accounting for 13.5% of total volume and 13.0% of total value under HS Code 1511. The slightly lower value ratio compared to weight ratio suggests Pakistan primarily purchases lower-grade product, a common pattern for bulk commodity trades where price differences reflect quality tiers.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

Three clear clusters emerge from the trade data. The first consists of Pakistan and Bangladesh, both high-volume buyers with frequent shipments, indicating established supply chains for regular bulk purchases. The second cluster includes China, United States, and Russia

• large volume importers but with lower shipment frequency, suggesting they procure larger consignments less frequently, possibly for strategic reserves or industrial use. The third cluster comprises Vietnam, Philippines, and Myanmar, representing regional ASEAN partners with moderate volumes but high shipment frequency, reflecting geographic proximity advantages for regular, smaller shipments.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

Exporters should prepare for potential supply constraints as Indonesia considers new export restrictions to meet growing domestic biodiesel demand, with the B50 program requiring 50% palm oil blending by 2026 [USDA Indonesia]. The recent levy increase to 10% for crude palm oil (USDA Indonesia) already affects cost structures. Buyers should diversify sources and consider forward contracting to secure supply amid potential export curbs that may squeeze global availability [Ukragroconsult]. The consistent regional demand pattern suggests maintaining strong relationships with ASEAN partners while developing more flexible supply arrangements with larger, less frequent buyers.

Get Complete Partner Countries Profile

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 September Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

In the Indonesia Palm Oil Export for September 2025 under HS Code 1511, the buyer market shows strong concentration, with one group of buyers dominating trade. Buyers who make large and frequent purchases control 82.19% of the total value, indicating a market heavily reliant on consistent, high-volume transactions. This four-segment analysis reveals that most trade activity comes from these key players, shaping the overall export dynamics for the period.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other buyer segments play smaller but distinct roles. Buyers who make large purchases but less often account for 14.58% of value, likely representing bulk orders for specific needs or seasonal demand. Those with small but frequent purchases contribute only 1.43% of value, possibly serving smaller or regular distribution channels. Finally, buyers with small and infrequent purchases make up 1.81% of value, which could include occasional or trial orders from new markets.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For exporters in Indonesia, the focus should be on securing relationships with the dominant large and frequent buyers to maintain stable revenue. However, rising domestic demand for biodiesel, as highlighted by policies like the B50 program [USDA], poses a risk by potentially reducing export availability. Sales strategies should prioritize long-term contracts with key buyers to mitigate volatility, while monitoring policy changes that could impact supply chains.

Check Full Palm Oil Buyer lists

Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 1511) 2025 September Export: Action Plan for Palm Oil Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 September under HS Code 1511 operates as a bulk commodity market. Price is driven by global indices and domestic policy shifts, not product differentiation. The narrow price band (1.04-1.15 USD/kg) confirms this. Supply faces growing risk from Indonesia's biodiesel mandates (e.g., B50 program) and export levies. These policies may reduce export volumes and raise costs. The buyer base is highly concentrated. Large, frequent buyers dominate 82% of trade value. This creates reliance on a few key relationships. Geographically, Pakistan leads volume, with ASEAN partners showing strong regional demand. The supply chain implication is clear: prioritize supply security for major buyers amid potential domestic diversion.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Palm Oil Market Execution

• Negotiate long-term contracts with top-volume, high-frequency buyers. Use trade data to identify these partners (e.g., Pakistan, Bangladesh). This secures stable revenue despite potential export curbs.
• Monitor Indonesian policy updates monthly via USDA and local sources. Track levy changes and biodiesel blending targets. This allows proactive cost adjustment and supply planning.
• Diversify buyer engagement within the ASEAN cluster. Target Vietnam and Philippines for smaller, frequent shipments. This balances reliance on dominant buyers and leverages geographic proximity.
• Analyze shipment frequency data to anticipate order cycles. Align production and logistics with buyer patterns. This prevents inventory gaps or overstock during policy-driven supply shifts.
• Use HS Code sub-category analysis (e.g., 15119037) for pricing strategy. Refined oils dominate value share. Focus here to maximize margin within the commodity price range.

Forward-Looking Risks and Data Defense

Indonesia's rising domestic biodiesel demand is the primary risk. The B50 program may shrink exportable surplus. Buyers must act now. Use trade data to lock in supply contracts before new restrictions emerge. This data-driven approach is critical. Traditional methods miss buyer-specific behaviors and sub-code details. Without this, you risk volume shortfalls and cost spikes. Secure your position through targeted, data-informed actions.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Palm Oil Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 September?

The sharp 42% monthly volume drop reflects seasonal adjustments and policy-driven volatility, as higher export levies since May and domestic biodiesel demand (B50 program) constrain global supply.

### Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 September? Pakistan dominates with 13.5% of volume, followed by Bangladesh, China, and the U.S., forming distinct clusters based on shipment frequency and volume.

### Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Palm Oil Export 2025 September partner countries? Minor price variations (1.04–1.15 USD/kg) stem from refined vs. crude palm oil grades, with Pakistan’s slightly lower value-to-weight ratio indicating bulk purchases of standardized commodity-grade product.

### Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm Oil export market? Exporters must prioritize long-term contracts with high-volume, frequent buyers (82% of trade value) while monitoring domestic policy shifts that may further restrict supply.

### Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries? Buyers face supply volatility due to Indonesia’s biodiesel policies; ASEAN partners benefit from proximity, while bulk purchasers like China should diversify sources or secure forward contracts.

### Q6. How is Palm Oil typically used in this trade flow? Refined palm oil (HS 15119037) dominates exports as a fungible commodity, primarily for food processing and industrial use, with crude oil (15111000) playing a minor role.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

Q8. How can yTrade benefit my business?

yTrade helps businesses:

• Identify active importers and exporters through shipment records
• Understand supplier and buyer behavior through real trade activity
• Review company trade profiles to support partner verification
• Track market movements and product-level demand trends
• Reduce manual research time with structured, ready-to-use data

Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

yTrade includes:

• Global shipment search by HS code, product, company, port, or country
• Company trade profiles showing shipment history and activity patterns
• Buyer and supplier discovery based on real import-export records
• Basic compliance indicators such as background and sanctions checks
• Market trend tools that show changes in demand, product flows, and trade volumes
• Structured filters that allow users to refine data by time, product category, and destination