2025 Indonesia Palm Oil (HS 151329) Export: Volatility Surge

Key Takeaways

Palm kernel oil, classified under HS Code 151329 (Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified), exhibited high volatility from January to October 2025.

• Market Pulse: Exports surged to 188.12 million kg in August before collapsing 56% by October, driven by Indonesia’s mid-2025 levy hikes and biodiesel policy shifts.
• Structural Shift: Indonesia Palm kernel oil Export reliance on China (27.5% of value) and two other markets creates concentration risk, with 97% of volume controlled by a handful of key buyers.
• Product Logic: HS Code 151329 trade data reveals a bulk commodity market, with unit prices tightly clustered ($1.66–$2.20/kg) and 65% of volume tied to a single refined oil variant.

This overview covers the period from January to October 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil (HS Code 151329) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The Indonesia palm kernel oil export trend from January to October 2025 displayed pronounced volatility, characterized by a strong mid-year surge followed by a sharp contraction. Exports started the year at 77.12 million kg in January, climbed to a peak of 188.12 million kg in August, then collapsed to 79.49 million kg by October. This trajectory reflects two distinct phases: robust expansion through the first eight months, then a severe Q4 pullback. Unit prices firmed from $1.77/kg in February to $2.02/kg by October, though this appreciation failed to offset the volume contraction in later months.

Drivers & Industry Context

The August export peak and subsequent September-October collapse align directly with Indonesia’s 2025 policy adjustments. A May levy hike under Ministry of Finance Regulation No. 30/2025 [FAS USDA] increased export costs, incentivizing accelerated shipments ahead of further restrictions. The government then implemented temporary duty increases and benchmark price adjustments in September [GlobalTradeAlert], aimed at securing domestic supply for biodiesel blending mandates. These measures explain the 56% month-on-month volume drop in September, as exporters rushed to clear inventories before new barriers took effect. The resulting hs code 151329 value thus reflects policy-driven shipment timing rather than pure demand fundamentals.

Table: Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia HS Code 151329 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

The export market for Indonesia HS Code 151329 is overwhelmingly dominated by one sub-category, which accounts for nearly 65% of the total weight shipped. According to yTrade data from January to October 2025, this primary product form is a refined palm kernel oil, moved in massive volumes exceeding 760 million kilograms. The remaining exports are split among several minor variants, all describing the same base oil at potentially different refining stages or specifications.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

Unit prices across the main sub-codes are tightly clustered between $1.66 and $2.20 per kilogram, indicating this is a classic bulk commodity market. The minimal price differentials suggest competition is driven by volume and cost efficiency, not specialized quality or functionality. For traders, this HS Code 151329 breakdown reveals a trade structure centered on high-volume, low-margin transactions, where securing large-scale supply contracts is more critical than product differentiation.

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Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

Indonesia's Palm kernel oil exports from January to October 2025 show heavy reliance on China, which accounts for 27.52% of total export value. This concentration poses market risk, as any shift in Chinese demand could significantly impact Indonesian trade flows. The top three destinations—China, the United States, and Brazil—collectively represent over 60% of export value, highlighting a narrow buyer base for Indonesia Palm kernel oil export destinations.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

The closely aligned value and weight ratios across major trade partners for Palm kernel oil indicate a commodity-driven market, where bulk industrial processing dominates over premium or retail segments. For instance, China's value ratio of 27.52% nearly matches its weight ratio of 28.97%, reinforcing price-sensitive, volume-scale demand. This pattern suggests Indonesia's exports cater to large-scale buyers focused on cost efficiency rather than high-margin niches.

Table: Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil (HS Code 151329) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, the Indonesia Palm kernel oil buyers market is overwhelmingly dominated by a core group of high-volume, repeat customers. This segment accounts for 97.2% of the total export value, indicating a market built on stable, contract-based supply chains with major manufacturers or retailers. The extreme concentration in this "Key Accounts" group, which also handles 97% of the volume, points to a mature industry reliant on long-term partnerships rather than spot trading.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The sales strategy must focus on retention and value-added services for these Key Accounts, as losing even one major buyer presents a severe concentration risk. Given the Indonesian government's hike in export levies for palm products in mid-2025 [ytrade.com], maintaining transparent communication on pricing and supply chain stability is critical. These HS Code 151329 buyer trends suggest that competitive advantage will be won through reliability and the ability to navigate regulatory changes, not by chasing a fragmented long-tail of smaller importers.

Table: Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil (HS Code 151329) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

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Action Plan for Palm Kernel Oil Market Operation and Expansion

• Lock in contracts with key buyers: Retention of the 97% dominant buyer group is critical; offer volume discounts or supply guarantees to mitigate churn risk.
• Diversify export destinations: Reduce reliance on China by targeting emerging markets in Africa or Southeast Asia to offset policy-driven demand shocks.
• Optimize logistics for bulk shipments: Negotiate freight rates or invest in storage to capitalize on high-volume, low-margin trade flows.
• Monitor Indonesian policy changes: Anticipate further levy adjustments by tracking Ministry of Finance announcements and biodiesel blending mandates.
• Hedge price volatility: Use forward contracts or futures to stabilize margins amid abrupt volume shifts and regulatory disruptions.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Palm kernel oil HS Code 151329 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm kernel oil Export in 2025?

The 2025 export volatility stems from Indonesia's policy shifts, including mid-year levy hikes and temporary duty increases, which caused a surge in shipments ahead of restrictions and a sharp Q4 decline.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Indonesia Palm kernel oil (HS Code 151329) in 2025?

China dominates with 27.52% of export value, followed by the United States and Brazil—together, these three markets account for over 60% of Indonesia’s palm kernel oil exports.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Indonesia Palm kernel oil Export in 2025?

Prices cluster tightly between $1.66 and $2.20/kg, reflecting a bulk commodity market where minor variations stem from refining stages or specifications, not premium differentiation.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm kernel oil export market?

Exporters must prioritize retaining high-volume buyers (97% of trade) by ensuring supply chain stability and transparent pricing, given the extreme buyer concentration and regulatory risks.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm kernel oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers face reliance on Indonesia’s policy-driven supply swings but benefit from stable, cost-efficient bulk pricing due to the commodity-focused market structure.

Q6. How is Palm kernel oil typically used in this trade flow?

The exports primarily serve industrial processing needs, with refined palm kernel oil shipped in bulk for large-scale manufacturing or biodiesel production.

Detailed Monthly and Quarterly Report

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