Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil HS151329 Export Data 2025 Q3 Overview

Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil (HS 151329) 2025 Q3 Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia's Palm Kernel Oil (HS Code 151329) exports in 2025 Q3 were dominated by China, which accounted for 33.55% of volume, reflecting heavy geographic concentration and uniform pricing at 1.79 USD/kg. The market shows stable demand from major global buyers like the U.S. and Brazil, alongside regional players, but faces supply risks due to recent export levy hikes and domestic biodiesel mandates. This analysis, based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database, highlights the need for importers to diversify sources amid policy-driven volatility.

Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil (HS 151329) 2025 Q3 Export Background

Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil (HS Code 151329) is a refined vegetable oil used in food processing, cosmetics, and biofuels, with steady global demand due to its versatility. In 2025 Q3, Indonesia’s exports face policy shifts, including higher levies and adjusted benchmark prices to balance domestic biodiesel needs (B50 targets) with export revenues [FAS USDA]. As the world’s top palm producer, Indonesia’s export strategies for HS 151329 directly impact global supply chains.

Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil (HS 151329) 2025 Q3 Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia's Palm Kernel Oil HS Code 151329 Export in 2025 Q3 totaled approximately $783.14 million in value and 429.74 million kilograms in volume. This represents a mixed performance, with value rising but volume declining compared to the previous quarter, against a backdrop of tightening export policies aimed at prioritizing domestic biofuel feedstock supplies.

Price and Volume Dynamics

Quarterly trends show a clear shift in export composition. Total export value for Q3 rose 18% from Q2's $595.40 million, while volume fell 12% from 487.20 million kg. This divergence suggests higher per-unit realized prices, likely driven by Indonesia's strategic use of pricing levers to maintain revenue despite volume constraints. The August peak ($358.92M) aligns with typical pre-harvest inventory drawdowns, while September's sharp contraction reflects both policy impacts and seasonal transition toward year-end.

External Context and Outlook

Recent regulatory changes directly shaped these trends. The export levy hike in May 2025 [USDA] increased shipment costs, while November's benchmark price adjustments (USDA) further tightened margins. Additionally, government considerations to restrict crude palm oil exports for domestic B50 biodiesel blending [Hydrocarbon Processing] likely reduced processing throughput, indirectly limiting palm kernel oil availability for export. These policy pressures are expected to persist, maintaining elevated prices but constraining volume growth through 2025.

Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil (HS 151329) 2025 Q3 Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In 2025 Q3, Indonesia's Palm Kernel Oil exports under HS Code 151329 are heavily concentrated in sub-code 15132995, which covers refined palm kernel oil fractions and accounts for over 70% of the export value at a unit price of 1.81 USD per kilogram. This sub-code represents the core of the export market. An anomaly exists with sub-code 15132996, which has an extremely high unit price of 92.98 USD per kilogram but negligible volume, and it is excluded from further analysis due to its outlier status.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The remaining sub-codes, 15132991 and 15132994, show slight variations in unit prices—2.04 USD per kilogram and 1.74 USD per kilogram respectively—despite similar product descriptions for refined oils. This suggests a market structure with minor quality or processing grade differences, but the high volume and close price range indicate that Indonesia's Palm Kernel Oil HS Code 151329 exports function as a fungible bulk commodity, closely tied to global price indices rather than differentiated manufactured goods.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil HS Code 151329 Export 2025 Q3, the commodity-like nature implies limited pricing power, with exports vulnerable to global market fluctuations. Recent policy changes, such as increased export levies [USDA] and adjustments to benchmark prices (USDA), could raise costs and reduce competitiveness, urging exporters to focus on cost efficiency and market diversification to maintain share.

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Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil (HS 151329) 2025 Q3 Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

In 2025 Q3, Indonesia's Palm Kernel Oil HS Code 151329 exports were heavily concentrated, with China Mainland as the dominant importer, holding a 33.55% quantity share and 32.61% value share. China's value ratio is slightly lower than its weight ratio (32.61 vs. 33.31), indicating a consistent, lower unit price around 1.79 USD/kg, which is typical for standardized bulk commodities where large-scale purchases maintain uniform pricing.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The top importers form two clear clusters: first, major global consumers like China, United States, and Brazil, which together account for over 66% of weight, driven by high demand for food ingredients and industrial uses such as biofuels. Second, regional players like Netherlands, acting as an EU entry point, and Russia with Sri Lanka, reflecting localized demand growth in their markets. Smaller importers such as Italy and Mexico likely source for niche applications or face competition from local alternatives.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

Buyers of Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil should prepare for potential supply shifts due to recent policy changes. Export levies were raised in May 2025, increasing costs [USDA], and benchmark price adjustments in November 2025 add pricing volatility (globaltradealert). Domestic biodiesel mandates may further reduce export volumes, so importers should diversify sources or secure long-term contracts to mitigate risks.

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Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil (HS 151329) 2025 Q3 Export: Action Plan for Palm Kernel Oil Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil Export 2025 Q3 under HS Code 151329 operates as a bulk commodity. Its price is driven by global market indices and Indonesia's domestic policies, not product differentiation. The supply chain faces high concentration risks. Major buyers like China demand large volumes at consistent, low prices. Recent export levy increases and domestic biodiesel mandates may reduce available volumes and raise costs. Exporters must prioritize supply security and cost efficiency to maintain competitiveness.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Palm Kernel Oil Market Execution

• Monitor buyer purchase frequency data to anticipate demand cycles and optimize inventory levels. This prevents stockouts or overstock during policy-driven supply shifts.
• Diversify export destinations beyond China by targeting emerging markets with growing demand, like those in Southeast Asia or Africa. This reduces reliance on a single dominant buyer and stabilizes revenue.
• Track HS Code 151329 sub-code performance (e.g., 15132995 vs. others) to identify premium pricing opportunities. Even minor unit price differences can impact margins in high-volume trades.
• Use real-time policy alerts on export levies and benchmark prices to adjust contract terms swiftly. This mitigates cost volatility and protects profitability.
• Engage infrequent high-value buyers with tailored offers to convert them into regular clients. This expands your customer base and buffers against demand fluctuations from core buyers.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil Export 2025 Q3?

The mixed performance—rising value (+18%) but falling volume (-12%)—reflects Indonesia's strategic use of pricing levers amid tightening export policies, including higher levies and domestic biodiesel priorities.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil Export 2025 Q3?

China dominates with 33.55% of volume, followed by the United States and Brazil, which collectively account for over 66% of total weight.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil Export 2025 Q3 partner countries?

Minor price variations (1.74–2.04 USD/kg) stem from sub-code differences in refined oil grades, though the bulk commodity nature keeps prices globally aligned.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Palm Kernel Oil export market?

Exporters must prioritize relationships with high-value frequent buyers (95% of revenue) while diversifying markets to mitigate risks from policy-driven supply constraints.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Palm Kernel Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers face potential supply volatility due to Indonesia’s policy shifts; securing long-term contracts or diversifying sources is critical to stabilize access.

Q6. How is Palm Kernel Oil typically used in this trade flow?

It serves as a bulk commodity for food ingredients and industrial applications like biofuels, with standardized pricing tied to global indices.

Detailed Monthly Report

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