2025 Mexico Crude Petroleum (HS 2709) Export: Volume Collapse

Key Takeaways

Crude Petroleum, classified under HS Code 2709 (Petroleum crude oil from bituminous minerals), exhibited extreme volatility from January to October 2025.

• Market Pulse: Export volumes surged 24.5% in March to 10.42B kg, peaked at 11.30B kg in June, then collapsed 61% by October—mirroring regulatory disruptions and global price swings.
• Structural Shift: Mexico Crude Petroleum Export revenue hinges on the U.S. (34.15% of value), with negligible spot activity; 99% of trade is locked in long-term contracts with a handful of bulk buyers.
• Product Logic: HS Code 2709 trade data shows a commoditized market, with unit prices tightly clustered ($0.41–$0.69/kg), emphasizing logistics efficiency over product differentiation.

This overview covers the period from January to October 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico Crude Petroleum (HS Code 2709) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The trends in Mexico's Crude Petroleum Export for 2025 reveal pronounced volatility from January to October. Shipments started the year stable but surged in March, with export weight jumping 24.5% month-on-month to 10.42B kg. After a mid-year contraction, volumes peaked again in June at 11.30B kg before collapsing 61% by October to 3.31B kg. The unit price swung dramatically, rising 61% in July to $0.74/kg only to drop 36% by September.

Drivers & Industry Context

This volatility aligns closely with Mexico's 2025 trade policy shifts. The June introduction of an Automatic Export Notice requirement [Expeditors] for select HS codes—including potential coverage of petroleum products—likely prompted accelerated June shipments ahead of the August enforcement deadline (Expeditors). Concurrent fuel import restrictions [U.S. Trade] affecting HS 2709 disrupted supply chains, exacerbating the October volume collapse. The hs code 2709 value consequently fell 62.6% that month, reflecting both regulatory friction and global price pressures.

Table: Mexico Crude Petroleum Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Mexico HS Code 2709 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

According to yTrade data, the Mexico HS Code 2709 export market for crude petroleum is overwhelmingly dominated by the main category, which accounts for approximately 32% of the total export value. The next two most significant sub-categories represent further refinements of this crude, contributing an additional 27% of the value combined. The remaining trade is fragmented across a handful of other minor classifications.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

The trade structure for this HS Code 2709 breakdown reveals a classic commodity market, with unit prices for the main export streams all clustered tightly between $0.41 and $0.69 per kilogram. This narrow price band indicates the market is driven by volume and benchmark pricing rather than significant quality or specialization premiums. The primary strategic implication is cost-efficiency in logistics and scale, not product differentiation.

Table: Mexico HS Code 2709) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

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Mexico Crude Petroleum Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

The United States dominates Mexico's Crude Petroleum export destinations, accounting for 34.15% of total value from January to October 2025. This heavy reliance on a single market exposes Mexico to significant concentration risk, as the next largest partner, Spain, represents just 12.36% of export value. Such a lopsided trade profile makes Mexico's export revenue highly sensitive to any shifts in U.S. energy policy or economic conditions.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

The U.S. market shows a classic commodity profile, with its weight share (39.03%) slightly exceeding its value share (34.15%), indicating price-sensitive bulk processing. This pattern, combined with high shipment frequency (44.50% of total), points to established pipeline or tanker routes moving large volumes rather than premium shipments. Mexico's trade partners for Crude Petroleum thus offer volume scale rather than margin potential, reflecting the standardized nature of this energy commodity.

Table: Mexico Crude Petroleum (HS Code 2709) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

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Mexico Crude Petroleum Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, Mexico's Crude Petroleum export market is almost entirely controlled by a small group of key accounts. These high-volume repeaters represent over 99% of the total export value, indicating a stable, contract-based supply chain dominated by major energy traders. This structure shows the market for Mexico Crude Petroleum buyers is consolidated around long-term partnerships with significant operational scale.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The extreme concentration among a few buyers creates substantial client dependency risk for Mexican exporters. Sales strategy must prioritize deep relationship management with these anchor clients to secure contract renewals and explore incremental volume opportunities. For HS Code 2709 buyer trends, this means focusing on reliability and compliance rather than broad customer acquisition, as spot market activity remains negligible in this commodity sector.

Table: Mexico Crude Petroleum (HS Code 2709) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

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Action Plan for Crude Petroleum Market Operation and Expansion

• Lock in contracts: Secure long-term agreements with anchor U.S. buyers to mitigate volume volatility from regulatory shocks like Mexico’s 2025 export notice policy.
• Diversify routes: Reduce reliance on the U.S. by targeting secondary markets (e.g., Spain, 12.36% share) to offset concentration risk from single-market exposure.
• Optimize logistics: Slash per-unit costs by negotiating bulk shipping rates or pipeline access, as price sensitivity leaves no room for premium margins.
• Monitor policy shifts: Track Mexican export regulations and U.S. energy import rules in real-time to anticipate volume disruptions like the June 2025 surge.
• Audit compliance: Ensure all HS Code 2709 shipments meet new Automatic Export Notice requirements to avoid delays post-August 2025 enforcement.

Take Action Now —— Explore Mexico Crude Petroleum HS Code 2709 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Mexico Crude Petroleum Export in 2025?

The 2025 volatility stems from regulatory shifts, including Mexico's June export notice requirement and U.S. fuel import restrictions, causing pre-deadline shipment surges and an October volume collapse of 61%.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Mexico Crude Petroleum (HS Code 2709) in 2025?

The U.S. dominates with 34.15% of export value, followed by Spain at 12.36%, reflecting heavy geographic concentration.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Mexico Crude Petroleum Export in 2025?

Prices cluster tightly ($0.41–$0.69/kg) due to standardized commodity pricing, with no significant quality premiums influencing differentials.

Q4. What should exporters in Mexico focus on in the current Crude Petroleum export market?

Prioritize contract stability with the few high-volume buyers (99% of trade) and mitigate U.S. market reliance through diversification.

Q5. What does this Mexico Crude Petroleum export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers benefit from predictable bulk supply via established logistics but face exposure to Mexico’s regulatory and price volatility risks.

Q6. How is Crude Petroleum typically used in this trade flow?

It serves as a base commodity for refining into fuels and petrochemicals, traded primarily in high-volume, low-margin transactions.

Detailed Monthly and Quarterly Report

Mexico HS Code 2709 Export Data Snapshot 2025 JAN

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