Mexico Crude Oil HS2709 Export Data 2025 Q1 Overview

Mexico Crude Oil (HS 2709) 2025 Q1 Export: Key Takeaways

Mexico's Crude Oil exports under HS Code 2709 in 2025 Q1 show a stable, standard-grade product, with pricing closely tied to volume. The market is highly concentrated, dominated by the U.S., which accounted for 38.24% of value and 38.67% of weight, reflecting geographic proximity and trade agreements. Secondary buyers like Spain and South Korea form smaller clusters, suggesting niche demand. This analysis, based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database, highlights the critical need for supply chain stability in the U.S. while exploring diversification opportunities.

Mexico Crude Oil (HS 2709) 2025 Q1 Export Background

Mexico Crude Oil (HS Code 2709), defined as petroleum crude oil from bituminous minerals, fuels global industries like energy, transportation, and manufacturing due to its stable demand. Recent policy shifts, including Mexico's 2025 Automatic Export Notice requirements [Expeditors], highlight tighter trade controls, while the U.S. relies on Mexico for nearly half its crude imports under HS 2709.00 [FreightAmigo], reinforcing Mexico's role as a key 2025 Q1 export hub.

Mexico Crude Oil (HS 2709) 2025 Q1 Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Mexico Crude Oil HS Code 2709 Export 2025 Q1 saw a notable surge in March, with volume jumping 24% month-over-month to 10.42 billion kg, driving value up to $4.87 billion despite stable unit prices around $0.47 USD/kg.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The monthly data shows a slight dip in volume in February, followed by a sharp rebound in March, indicating volatility typical of crude oil inventory cycles where refineries often accelerate purchases ahead of seasonal demand shifts. Unit prices remained consistent, suggesting that the value increase was primarily volume-driven rather than price inflation. This pattern reflects the industry's cyclical nature, with Q1 often seeing inventory builds after winter, but the March spike points to stronger-than-expected export activity.

External Context and Outlook

External policy factors are shaping this trend; Mexico's import restrictions on certain fuels, including those under HS Code 2709 [Trade.gov], may be tightening domestic supply and boosting export incentives. Additionally, the upcoming Automatic Export Notice effective June 2025 [Expeditors] could be prompting early trade adjustments. These measures are likely to maintain elevated export levels, though global oil price fluctuations and geopolitical events will continue to influence Mexico's crude oil outlook.

Mexico Crude Oil (HS 2709) 2025 Q1 Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In 2025 Q1, Mexico's Crude Oil exports under HS Code 2709 are highly concentrated, with the general code 270900 dominating at a 33.33% value share and weight share, representing "Oils; petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude" at 0.47 USD per kilogram. A minor anomaly exists in sub-code 27090099, isolated due to its higher unit price of 0.54 USD per kilogram despite lower volume.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The non-anomalous sub-codes fall into two groups: lower-grade crude with unit prices from 0.43 to 0.46 USD per kilogram, and medium-grade crude ranging from 0.48 to 0.52 USD per kilogram. This pricing spread reflects quality differentiation within a fungible bulk commodity market, without significant value-added stages, typical for raw material exports like Mexico Crude Oil.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

Exporters face limited pricing power due to the commodity nature and concentration in standard grades, with strategic focus on maintaining volume over premium pricing. The dominance of HS Code 2709 in Mexico's export landscape [FreightAmigo] highlights its economic importance, though import restrictions on related codes (FreightAmigo) may not directly impact export strategies, requiring attention to compliance with any export notices.

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Mexico Crude Oil (HS 2709) 2025 Q1 Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

In 2025 Q1, Mexico's Crude Oil exports under HS Code 2709 were highly concentrated, with the UNITED STATES as the dominant importer, accounting for 38.24% of value and 38.67% of weight. The nearly equal value and weight ratios suggest a consistent, standard grade of Crude Oil, typical for commodity trades where pricing aligns closely with volume.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The top importers form clear clusters: the US and Mexico represent the primary market due to geographic proximity and trade agreements like USMCA. Spain, South Korea, and Italy form a secondary cluster, likely driven by refining demand or strategic energy partnerships. A smaller cluster including China and India may reflect occasional spot purchases or emerging market needs.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

For market players, maintaining stable supply to the US is critical, given its dominance, as noted by [FreightAmigo], which reports 48% of Crude Oil exports go to the USA. Diversifying to secondary markets could mitigate risks, but focus should remain on logistics efficiency and monitoring trade policy changes for HS Code 2709.

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Mexico Crude Oil (HS 2709) 2025 Q1 Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

In the Mexico Crude Oil Export 2025 Q1 under HS Code 2709, the buyer market shows extreme concentration, with one segment of high-value, high-frequency buyers dominating over 92% of the trade value. This group, represented by major entities like PEMEX, drives the market with consistent, large-scale purchases, defining the overall characteristic as reliant on a few key players for most transactions. The analysis for 2025 Q1 confirms that this cluster handles the bulk of exports, making it the central force in the trade flow.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The only other active segment consists of low-value, low-frequency buyers, such as ENI, which contribute about 7% of the value through infrequent, smaller deals. This suggests they are occasional or niche participants, possibly handling spot purchases or specialized shipments. The absence of high-value low-frequency or low-value high-frequency buyers indicates no significant irregular large orders or small but frequent transactions, typical in commodity markets where stability in major buyers is common.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For exporters in Mexico, the strategy must focus on nurturing relationships with the dominant high-value buyers to secure steady revenue, but this creates vulnerability to demand shifts or policy changes from these few clients. The risk of over-reliance is heightened by Mexico's export regulations, such as the automatic export notice requirement effective June 2025 [Expeditors], which may affect compliance and timing. Sales should prioritize long-term contracts with major buyers while exploring opportunities to engage occasional buyers for diversification.

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Mexico Crude Oil (HS 2709) 2025 Q1 Export: Action Plan for Crude Oil Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Mexico Crude Oil Export 2025 Q1 under HS Code 2709 is a bulk commodity trade with concentrated risks. Price is driven by crude grade differentiation and geopolitical stability, not value-added processing. Supply chains prioritize volume flow to the US market, with limited pricing power due to commodity fungibility. Over-reliance on few buyers and one dominant market increases vulnerability to demand shifts or policy changes.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Crude Oil Market Execution

• Monitor US import volumes weekly using trade data to anticipate demand shifts and adjust production schedules, preventing revenue shortfalls.
• Diversify buyer portfolios by targeting secondary markets like Spain or India with tailored offers, reducing dependency on a single client segment.
• Track crude grade pricing differentials in real-time to negotiate better premiums for medium-grade shipments, maximizing margin opportunities.
• Automate compliance checks for export notices effective June 2025 using regulatory data feeds, avoiding shipment delays and penalties.
• Optimize logistics routes to the US and EU hubs based on trade flow patterns, cutting transit costs and securing supply chain reliability.

Take Action Now —— Explore Mexico Crude Oil Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Mexico Crude Oil Export 2025 Q1?

The March 2025 surge (24% volume increase to 10.42 billion kg) reflects cyclical inventory builds and potential export incentives due to Mexico's upcoming fuel import restrictions. Stable unit prices ($0.47/kg) confirm the growth is volume-driven, not price-led.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in Mexico Crude Oil Export 2025 Q1?

The U.S. dominates with 38.24% of export value, followed by secondary markets like Spain, South Korea, and Italy. Geographic proximity and trade agreements underpin this concentration.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Mexico Crude Oil Export 2025 Q1 partner countries?

Price variations stem from grade differentiation: lower-grade crude trades at $0.43–0.46/kg, while medium-grade commands $0.48–0.52/kg. Anomalous sub-code 27090099 reaches $0.54/kg despite lower volume.

Q4. What should exporters in Mexico focus on in the current Crude Oil export market?

Exporters must prioritize relationships with high-value buyers (e.g., PEMEX, 92% of trade value) while diversifying to mitigate over-reliance risks. Compliance with June 2025’s export notice rules is critical.

Q5. What does this Mexico Crude Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

U.S. buyers benefit from stable supply due to Mexico’s export concentration, while secondary markets (e.g., Spain, Italy) face sporadic access, reflecting niche or spot-driven demand.

Q6. How is Crude Oil typically used in this trade flow?

Mexico’s crude oil exports are primarily fungible bulk commodities for refining, with no significant value-added stages. Pricing aligns closely with volume, typical of raw material markets.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

Q8. How can yTrade benefit my business?

yTrade helps businesses:

• Identify active and verified buyers through global import data
• Discover reliable suppliers with real shipment history
• Monitor competitor previous trade activity
• Reduce sourcing and compliance risk with worldwide export data
• Support data-driven sales, procurement, and market expansion decisions
• Save time by replacing manual research with structured trade data analysis

Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

yTrade provides practical, trade-focused tools including:

• Global shipment search by HS code, product, company name, port, or country
• Detailed company trade profiles with ownership and relationship mapping
• Buyer and supplier discovery with real transaction trade records
• Basic compliance with background checks and sanctions risk screening
• Competitor's shipment tracking and selling/buying behaviour analysis
• Trade Trends to identify market demand and trade flow monitoring
• Big-Data Search engine with percised filters to generate accurate data reports
• Global Trade Data API access for Internal Softwares like CRM, ERP, and SaaS integration All data is structured, verified, and cleaned to ensure consistency and reliability.

Detailed Monthly Report

Mexico HS2709 Export Snapshot 2025 JAN

Mexico HS2709 Export Snapshot 2025 FEB

Mexico HS2709 Export Snapshot 2025 MAR