2025 Indonesia Natural Gas (HS 271121) Export: Price Erosion
Key Takeaways
Natural Gas, classified under HS Code 271121 (Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; in gaseous state, natural gas), exhibited moderate volatility with a flat trajectory from January to October 2025.
- Market Pulse: Exports fluctuated within a narrow band ($153–163M monthly), recovering from a 10.6% February drop but failing to sustain momentum, while unit prices eroded from $0.54/kg to $0.50/kg.
- Structural Shift: Indonesia Natural Gas Export relies entirely on Singapore (100% of value/weight), creating extreme supply chain vulnerability with no geographic diversification.
- Product Logic: HS Code 271121 trade data reveals a commodity-driven market, dominated by sub-code 27112190 (90% share), with minimal value-add differentiation and bulk pricing at ~$0.50/kg.
This overview covers the period from January to October 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia Natural Gas (HS Code 271121) Key Metrics Trend
Market Trend Summary
The Indonesia Natural Gas Export trend from January to October 2025 showed moderate volatility with a largely flat overall trajectory. After a sharp 10.6% value drop in February, exports rebounded strongly in March (+15.5%) but failed to sustain momentum, oscillating within a narrow band of $153–163 million for the remainder of the period. Volume followed a similar pattern, declining 9.7% in February before stabilizing around 300 million kg monthly, while unit prices drifted downward from $0.54/kg to $0.50/kg by October.
Drivers & Industry Context
The March surge in HS code 271121 value likely reflects tightened global supply conditions ahead of seasonal demand shifts, though Indonesia’s broader export restriction policies may have contributed to volatility. [Global Trade Alert] notes the country’s history of mineral and energy export controls, creating uncertainty despite no direct ban on natural gas. The subsequent price erosion aligns with typical contract renegotiations and competing LNG shipments from other suppliers, compressing margins even as volumes held steady. The flatlined export weight suggests capacity or logistical constraints limited response to price signals.
Table: Indonesia Natural Gas Export Trend (Source: yTrade)
| Date | Value | Weight | Unit Price | Value MoM | Weight MoM | Unit Price MoM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | 166.03M USD | 308.90M kg | $0.54/kg | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-02-01 | 148.48M USD | 279.01M kg | $0.53/kg | -10.57% | -9.68% | -0.99% |
| 2025-03-01 | 171.47M USD | 271.99M kg | $0.63/kg | +15.48% | -2.52% | +18.46% |
| 2025-04-01 | 161.64M USD | 298.94M kg | $0.54/kg | -5.73% | +9.91% | -14.23% |
| 2025-05-01 | 163.15M USD | 308.27M kg | $0.53/kg | +0.94% | +3.12% | -2.12% |
| 2025-06-01 | 155.39M USD | 298.94M kg | $0.52/kg | -4.76% | -3.03% | -1.78% |
| 2025-07-01 | 157.68M USD | 309.55M kg | $0.51/kg | +1.47% | +3.55% | -2.01% |
| 2025-08-01 | 162.66M USD | 314.31M kg | $0.52/kg | +3.16% | +1.54% | +1.60% |
| 2025-09-01 | 153.09M USD | 299.57M kg | $0.51/kg | -5.88% | -4.69% | -1.25% |
| 2025-10-01 | 155.41M USD | 309.55M kg | $0.50/kg | +1.51% | +3.33% | -1.76% |
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Indonesia HS Code 271121 Export Breakdown
Market Composition & Top Categories
HS Code 27112190 for natural gas dominates Indonesia's export of HS Code 271121, accounting for 90.26% of the value and 89.68% of the weight from January to October 2025, according to yTrade data. The remaining sub-code, a more specific classification, holds a minor share of under 10% across all metrics. This Indonesia HS Code 271121 export structure highlights a concentrated market with one primary product category.
Value Chain & Strategic Insights
Unit prices are low at approximately $0.54 per kg for the dominant sub-code, indicating a commodity-driven market with minimal value-add differentiation. The slight price variation between sub-codes suggests standard quality grades rather than specialized products. This HS Code 271121 breakdown confirms a price-sensitive trade structure typical for bulk energy commodities.
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Indonesia Natural Gas Destination Countries
Geographic Concentration & Market Risk
Indonesia's Natural Gas exports from January to October 2025 demonstrate extreme market concentration, with Singapore accounting for 100% of the total value and weight shipped. This singular dependence on a single trade partner creates significant supply chain vulnerability, leaving the sector exposed to any economic or political shifts in Singaporean demand. For Indonesia, this market structure represents a high-risk, single-channel export strategy for its Natural Gas.
Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation
The identical 100% ratios for value and weight indicate a perfectly aligned market with no value-volume gap, pointing to a stable bulk commodity trade. Singapore's purchasing behavior reflects consistent, large-scale offtake for industrial processing or energy generation, not fragmented retail or premium niche demand. This profile confirms the market offers predictable Volume Scale for Indonesia's exports, but minimal opportunity for premium product differentiation or margin expansion.
Table: Indonesia Natural Gas (HS Code 271121) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)
| Country | Value | Quantity | Frequency | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SINGAPORE | 1.59B | 144.57M | 56.00 | 3.00B |
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Get Indonesia Natural Gas (HS Code 271121) Complete Destination Countries Profile
Indonesia Natural Gas Buyer Companies Analysis
Buyer Concentration & Market Structure
According to yTrade data, the Indonesia Natural Gas buyers are dominated by a single, stable segment of high-volume repeaters. This group drives 56.35% of total trade value and 55.47% of quantity through frequent, regular purchases, exemplified by a key account like Sembcorp Gas Pte Ltd. This structure points to a market built on long-term, contract-based supply chains rather than spot transactions, with a secondary segment of smaller, less frequent buyers accounting for the remaining share.
Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy
The heavy reliance on a few major accounts creates significant concentration risk; losing even one primary buyer would sharply impact revenue. The sales strategy must focus on deepening relationships with these key partners through contract stability and value-added services to secure their loyalty. For the smaller, less frequent buyers, a targeted approach to convert them into more regular purchasers could help diversify the client base and mitigate over-dependence on the top accounts.
Table: Indonesia Natural Gas (HS Code 271121) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)
| Buyer Company | Value | Quantity | Frequency | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEMBCORP GAS PTE LTD | 898.85M | 80.20M | 30.00 | 1.65B |
| GAS SUPPLY PTE LTD | 696.15M | 64.37M | 26.00 | 1.35B |
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Action Plan for Natural Gas Market Operation and Expansion
- Diversify Buyer Base: Target smaller, infrequent buyers to reduce reliance on the top account (56% of revenue) and mitigate concentration risk.
- Secure Contracts: Renegotiate long-term agreements with key buyers like Sembcorp Gas Pte Ltd to lock in volume commitments amid price erosion.
- Explore New Markets: Shift focus to alternative destinations to reduce dependence on Singapore, which accounts for 100% of exports.
- Optimize Logistics: Audit transport and storage costs to preserve margins in a low-unit-price ($0.50/kg) bulk commodity trade.
- Monitor Policy Shifts: Track Indonesia’s export restrictions and global LNG supply trends to anticipate volatility triggers.
Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Natural Gas HS Code 271121 Export Data
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Natural Gas Export in 2025?
Indonesia's Natural Gas exports showed moderate volatility in 2025, with a sharp 10.6% value drop in February followed by a 15.5% rebound in March. The flat trajectory afterward, with monthly values oscillating between $153–163 million, reflects global supply shifts and potential policy uncertainty, though volumes stabilized around 300 million kg.
Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Indonesia Natural Gas (HS Code 271121) in 2025?
Singapore is the sole destination for Indonesia’s Natural Gas exports, accounting for 100% of both value and weight shipped from January to October 2025.
Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Indonesia Natural Gas Export in 2025?
Unit prices are uniformly low (~$0.50–$0.54/kg) with minimal variation, as the dominant HS sub-code (27112190) represents a bulk commodity market without premium product differentiation.
Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Natural Gas export market?
Exporters must prioritize securing long-term contracts with key buyers (like Sembcorp Gas Pte Ltd, driving 56% of trade) while exploring diversification to mitigate over-reliance on Singapore.
Q5. What does this Indonesia Natural Gas export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?
Singaporean buyers benefit from stable, large-scale supply but face no competitive pressure, as Indonesia’s export structure lacks alternative partners or premium product tiers.
Q6. How is Natural Gas typically used in this trade flow?
The identical value-weight ratios and low unit prices indicate bulk shipments for industrial processing or energy generation, not niche or retail applications.
Detailed Monthly and Quarterly Report
Indonesia HS Code 271121 Export Data Snapshot 2025 JAN
Indonesia HS Code 271121 Export Data Snapshot 2025 FEB
Indonesia HS Code 271121 Export Data Snapshot 2025 MAR
Indonesia HS Code 271121 Export Data Snapshot 2025 APR
Indonesia HS Code 271121 Export Data Snapshot 2025 MAY
Indonesia HS Code 271121 Export Data Snapshot 2025 JUN
Indonesia HS Code 271121 Export Data Snapshot 2025 JUL
Indonesia HS Code 271121 Export Data Snapshot 2025 AUG
Indonesia HS Code 271121 Export Data Snapshot 2025 SEP
Indonesia HS Code 271121 Export Data Snapshot 2025 OCT
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