Indonesia Lignite HS2702 Export Data 2025 Q3 Overview

Indonesia Lignite (HS 2702) 2025 Q3 Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia’s lignite exports under HS Code 2702 in Q3 2025 reveal a market heavily dependent on China, which accounts for 99% of both volume and value, signaling a standardized product with stable pricing. The extreme buyer concentration poses significant risk, especially amid Indonesia’s new coal export policies, while minor importers like Pakistan and Vietnam reflect niche demand. This analysis, covering 2025 Q3, is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Lignite (HS 2702) 2025 Q3 Export Background

Indonesia’s lignite (HS Code 2702), a low-rank coal used in power generation and industrial heating, maintains steady global demand despite competition from cleaner energy. In Q3 2025, Indonesia’s lignite exports face new challenges as the government mandates the Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA) pricing system, complicating contract renegotiations for exporters tied to international indices like China’s [Titan Infrasejahtera]. With India as a key buyer, Indonesia’s export volume is declining due to weaker demand and domestic priorities, while new rules require export proceeds to stay in local banks for 12 months [Orrick].

Indonesia Lignite (HS 2702) 2025 Q3 Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia Lignite Export (HS Code 2702) experienced a strong quarter-over-quarter rebound in Q3 2025, with volume and value surging significantly after a subdued Q2, while unit prices held steady at approximately 0.04 USD/kg.

Price and Volume Dynamics

Volume jumped over 50% from Q2 to Q3, and value rose by nearly 40%, reflecting a typical seasonal uptick in coal demand for power generation and industrial use during this period. The stable pricing indicates that market adjustments, rather than cost pressures, drove the recovery, as exporters adapted to earlier disruptions.

External Context and Outlook

This recovery aligns with eased initial disruptions from the HBA price mandate implemented in March [Titan Infrasejahtera], though overall 2025 exports are still projected to decline by 20-30 million tons due to weaker global demand and higher domestic consumption (yTrade). Outlook remains cautious with ongoing regulatory challenges, including the 100% export proceeds onshoring rule and potential export duties, which could constrain future growth (Orrick).

Indonesia Lignite (HS 2702) 2025 Q3 Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In 2025 Q3, Indonesia's Lignite export under HS Code 2702 is fully specialized in a single product. The sub-code 27021000, for "Lignite; whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated, excluding jet", holds 100% of the export value and weight. With a unit price of 0.04 USD per kilogram, this low value confirms a bulk commodity focus, and no extreme price anomalies are present in the data.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The export structure for HS Code 2702 is monolithic, with no sub-codes indicating different value-add stages or quality grades. This single product category points to a trade in fungible bulk commodities, where Lignite is exported in its raw form and pricing is likely tied to market indices rather than product differentiation.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

The bulk nature of Indonesia Lignite Export 2025 Q3 implies limited inherent pricing power, with prices driven by global supply and demand. Recent policy changes, such as the mandated use of the HBA reference price [Titan Infrasejahtera], may increase government influence over pricing. Exporters must focus on adapting to regulatory shifts, including volume declines and onshoring requirements (yTrade), to maintain market access.

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Indonesia Lignite (HS 2702) 2025 Q3 Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

In Indonesia Lignite Export 2025 Q3 under HS Code 2702, China Mainland is the dominant importer, accounting for 99.01% of the weight and 99.19% of the value. The close match between value and weight ratios indicates a consistent, standard-grade product with stable pricing around estimated averages. This high concentration shows that Indonesia's lignite exports are heavily reliant on China during this period.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The partner countries form two clusters. First, China Mainland stands alone due to its massive energy demand and geographic proximity, driving nearly all trade. Second, smaller importers like Pakistan, South Korea, China Taiwan, and Vietnam each have minimal shares (under 1% in weight and value), likely reflecting niche or spot purchases of lower-volume lignite, possibly for specific industrial needs or regional supply chains.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

For market players, the extreme reliance on China poses significant risk, especially with Indonesia's new coal export policies mandating HBA pricing and onshoring of proceeds [Titan Infrasejahtera]. Exporters should diversify markets to reduce dependency and ensure compliance with these regulations to avoid disruptions in Indonesia Lignite Export 2025 Q3.

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Indonesia Lignite (HS 2702) 2025 Q3 Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

The Indonesia Lignite Export market in 2025 Q3, under HS Code 2702, shows extreme concentration in one of the four segments of buyers. High value, high frequency buyers dominate, holding 94.98% of the export value and 94.28% of transaction frequency. This indicates a market driven by consistent, large-volume purchases, with the median buyer behavior skewed towards regular, high-impact deals.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other buyer segments play minor roles. Low value, high frequency buyers, with 2.49% value share, represent smaller but regular purchasers, likely for steady supply needs in commodity trading. Low value, low frequency buyers, at 2.53% value share, are infrequent and small-volume, possibly engaging in spot market or trial purchases. The high value, low frequency segment is absent, showing no buyers fitting that profile in this period.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For exporters in Indonesia, the strategy must focus on nurturing relationships with dominant high value, high frequency buyers to secure stable revenue. The high dependence on this segment poses a risk if market conditions shift, but also offers opportunity to leverage policy changes like the HBA pricing mandate [Titan Infrasejahtera] and export proceeds retention rules (Orrick). Sales should prioritize long-term contracts and bulk deals, aligning with the commodity nature of lignite.

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Indonesia Lignite (HS 2702) 2025 Q3 Export: Action Plan for Lignite Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Lignite Export 2025 Q3 under HS Code 2702 operates as a bulk commodity trade. Prices are driven by global supply-demand balances and Indonesia's new HBA reference price policy. The supply chain faces high concentration risk. China buys almost all volume. This creates vulnerability to demand shifts or policy changes. Exporters must ensure compliance with new rules like proceeds retention. The market lacks product differentiation. All trade uses one sub-code for raw lignite.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Lignite Market Execution

• Track HBA index movements weekly. Adjust pricing strategies in real-time to align with mandated rates and protect margins.
• Analyze buyer transaction frequency. Identify any changes in purchase patterns from dominant clients to anticipate demand shifts early.
• Diversify export destinations using trade data. Target secondary markets in Southeast Asia to reduce reliance on a single buyer cluster.
• Monitor regulatory updates from Indonesian authorities. Ensure full compliance with onshoring and reporting rules to avoid shipment delays.
• Use HS Code 2702 sub-component analysis. Confirm no quality variations exist that could allow premium pricing opportunities.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Lignite Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Lignite Export 2025 Q3?

The rebound in Q3 2025 reflects a seasonal demand surge, with volume up 50% and value rising 40%, while unit prices held steady at 0.04 USD/kg. This recovery aligns with eased disruptions from Indonesia’s new HBA pricing policy.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Lignite Export 2025 Q3?

China Mainland dominates with 99% of export value and weight, while minor shares go to Pakistan, South Korea, China Taiwan, and Vietnam (each under 1%).

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Lignite Export 2025 Q3 partner countries?

Prices are uniform because exports are monolithic under HS Code 27021000, representing raw lignite at 0.04 USD/kg with no quality or value-add differentiation.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Lignite export market?

Exporters must prioritize relationships with high-value, high-frequency buyers (95% of trade) and diversify markets to reduce reliance on China amid regulatory shifts like HBA pricing.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Lignite export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

China’s near-total dominance ensures stable bulk supply, but smaller buyers face niche reliance. All must adapt to Indonesia’s pricing and onshoring rules for uninterrupted access.

Q6. How is Lignite typically used in this trade flow?

Lignite is traded as a bulk commodity for power generation or industrial use, exported raw (unprocessed) under a single HS code with no downstream processing.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

Q8. How can yTrade benefit my business?

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Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

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