Indonesia Lignite Coal HS2702 Export Data 2025 Q2 Overview

Indonesia Lignite Coal (HS 2702) 2025 Q2 Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia’s Lignite Coal exports (HS Code 2702) in Q2 2025 reveal a market dominated by China Mainland, capturing over 96% of shipments by value and weight, signaling extreme geographic concentration. The near-identical value-to-weight ratios for China suggest uniform, low-cost bulk supply, while South Korea’s higher unit price points to niche demand for premium grades. Exporters must navigate Indonesia’s new regulatory hurdles, including downstream processing mandates, to diversify beyond raw coal and stabilize cash flow. This analysis, covering 2025 Q2, is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Lignite Coal (HS 2702) 2025 Q2 Export Background

Indonesia Lignite Coal (HS Code 2702), covering lignite whether or not agglomerated (excluding jet), fuels power generation and industrial heating due to its cost-efficiency, maintaining steady global demand. Recent updates under Indonesia's MOT Regulation 9/2025 and GR 8/2025 now require exporters to retain proceeds domestically and tighten controls on mineral exports [Permitindo, Orrick]. As a key supplier, Indonesia’s 2025 Q2 policies aim to balance export revenue with downstream processing goals, shaping trade flows for this strategic commodity.

Indonesia Lignite Coal (HS 2702) 2025 Q2 Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia Lignite Coal HS Code 2702 Export 2025 Q2 saw a sharp contraction, with export value dropping 33.8% quarter-over-quarter to $1.03 billion and volume falling 30.4% to 23.3 billion kg, reflecting the immediate impact of new export restrictions and financial controls implemented during the period.

Price and Volume Dynamics

Unit prices held remarkably stable at $0.04/kg throughout Q2, but both volume and value showed severe sequential declines from Q1's levels. This compression aligns with typical mineral export patterns where regulatory changes disrupt trade flows before markets adjust. The stability in pricing despite volume collapse suggests preserved underlying demand, but exporters faced immediate constraints in moving physical cargoes under the new rules.

External Context and Outlook

The downturn directly corresponds to Indonesia's regulatory overhaul. [Permitindo] reported MOT Regulation 9/2025 restricting mineral exports, while GR 8/2025 mandated full export proceeds be retained domestically for 12 months (Orrick). Concurrent customs modernization under MOF Regulation 25/2025 (SSEK) further complicated logistics. These policies aim to boost domestic processing but created significant Q2 friction. Recovery hinges on exporter adaptation to these structural changes.

Indonesia Lignite Coal (HS 2702) 2025 Q2 Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In Q2 2025, Indonesia's export of Lignite Coal under HS Code 2702 is entirely concentrated on a single product: Lignite; whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated, excluding jet, with HS Code 27021000. This sub-code accounts for 100% of the export value, weight, and frequency, indicating no diversification within this category. The unit price is consistently low at 0.04 USD per kilogram, which is characteristic of raw, bulk commodities, and there are no extreme price anomalies to isolate from the analysis.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

With only one sub-code present, the export structure for Indonesia Lignite Coal HS Code 2702 in 2025 Q2 is monolithic, consisting solely of raw, unprocessed lignite. This lack of variation suggests a trade in fungible bulk commodities, where products are standardized and often priced based on global indices rather than differentiation. The absence of higher-value or processed forms under this HS code reinforces that exports are primarily low-grade, bulk material without significant value-add stages.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For market players, the homogeneous nature of Indonesia's Lignite Coal exports under HS Code 2702 in 2025 Q2 implies limited pricing power, as it competes on volume and cost efficiency in a commodity market. Recent regulatory changes, such as Indonesia's export proceeds retention requirement [Permitindo] and restrictions on mineral exports (Permitindo), may further constrain flexibility and increase compliance costs, urging exporters to focus on cost management and regulatory adherence rather than product differentiation.

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Indonesia Lignite Coal (HS 2702) 2025 Q2 Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

In Q2 2025, China Mainland dominates Indonesia's Lignite Coal exports under HS Code 2702, holding over 96% share in both value and weight, showing a highly concentrated market. The nearly equal value and weight ratios for China suggest a consistent unit price around 0.044 USD/kg, indicating uniform product grade for bulk energy supply. South Korea shows a higher value ratio compared to weight, pointing to a slightly higher unit price, possibly for premium coal uses.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The export partners form three clear clusters. First, China acts as the primary cluster due to its massive energy demand and geographic proximity, driving high-volume, low-cost imports. Second, South Korea represents a niche cluster with smaller volumes but higher unit prices, likely for specialized industrial applications requiring better quality coal. Third, countries like Pakistan and India form a secondary cluster with lower volumes and unit prices, possibly sourcing lower-grade coal for basic energy needs or blending purposes.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

Exporters must adapt to Indonesia's new regulations, such as retaining export proceeds in local banks for 12 months under GR 8/2025 [Permitindo], which could strain cash flow. The focus on downstream processing in MOT Regulation No. 9 of 2025 (Permitindo) means diversifying beyond raw coal exports to value-added products to mitigate reliance on China and tap into higher-value markets like South Korea. Supply chains should prioritize compliance and explore partnerships for processed coal to align with policy shifts.

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Indonesia Lignite Coal (HS 2702) 2025 Q2 Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

The Indonesia Lignite Coal Export 2025 Q2 under HS Code 2702 shows a highly concentrated buyer market across four segments of buyers. The dominant group consists of buyers who make large, frequent purchases, holding 92.90% of the total export value. This segment drives the market with high transaction frequency and volume, indicating a stable, bulk-oriented trade flow for this commodity during Q2 2025.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other buyer segments play minor roles. Buyers with low value but high frequency account for a small share, likely representing smaller regular customers or spot market participants. Those with low value and low frequency are infrequent purchasers, possibly new or irregular buyers testing the market. The absence of high-value, low-frequency buyers suggests no major one-off bulk deals occurred in this period.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For exporters in Indonesia, the strategy should focus on nurturing relationships with the dominant bulk buyers to maintain steady revenue. The risk lies in over-reliance on this group, making the business vulnerable to shifts in their demand. The sales model must adapt to regulatory changes, such as new rules requiring export proceeds to be held in Indonesian banks for 12 months [Permitindo], which could impact cash flow and transaction timing.

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Indonesia Lignite Coal (HS 2702) 2025 Q2 Export: Action Plan for Lignite Coal Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Lignite Coal Export 2025 Q2 under HS Code 2702 operates as a pure commodity market. Price is driven by global bulk indices and China's energy demand. Supply faces risks from regulatory changes and over-reliance on a single buyer. The supply chain must prioritize compliance and cost control due to low-value, high-volume trade.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Lignite Coal Market Execution

• Monitor buyer purchase frequency data to forecast China's demand cycles and optimize inventory levels. This prevents stockpile costs during low-demand periods.
• Track regulatory updates like Indonesia's export proceeds rule to adjust payment terms with bulk buyers. This avoids cash flow disruptions from mandatory bank retention.
• Analyze South Korea's higher unit price shipments to identify quality specifications. This allows premium pricing for suitable coal grades.
• Develop value-added coal products aligned with Indonesia's downstream processing policy. This reduces dependence on raw exports and taps higher-value markets.
• Use trade data to identify new buyers in secondary markets like India and Pakistan. This diversifies revenue streams beyond China dominance.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Lignite Coal Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Lignite Coal Export 2025 Q2?

A1. Indonesia's Lignite Coal exports dropped 33.8% in value and 30.4% in volume due to new export restrictions and financial controls, including mandatory 12-month retention of proceeds in local banks.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Lignite Coal Export 2025 Q2?

A2. China dominates with over 96% share, followed by South Korea and smaller clusters like Pakistan and India, which account for minimal volumes.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Lignite Coal Export 2025 Q2 partner countries?

A3. Prices vary slightly because exports consist solely of raw, unprocessed lignite (HS Code 27021000), with South Korea paying marginally more for potential specialized industrial use.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Lignite Coal export market?

A4. Exporters must prioritize relationships with dominant bulk buyers (92.9% of trade) while adapting to regulatory constraints like proceeds retention and exploring value-added processing.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Lignite Coal export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

A5. Buyers face stable bulk supply from China-focused trade but should monitor regulatory disruptions and potential shifts toward processed coal under Indonesia’s new policies.

Q6. How is Lignite Coal typically used in this trade flow?

A6. The uniformly low-grade, unprocessed lignite is traded as a bulk commodity, primarily for basic energy generation or industrial blending.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

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Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

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