Indonesia Coal HS2701 Export Data 2025 Q2 Overview

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q2 Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia's coal exports (HS Code 2701) in Q2 2025 reveal a market dominated by India, which accounts for 30.65% of weight but just 24.95% of value, signaling bulk shipments of lower-grade thermal coal. Buyer concentration is high, with India and China Mainland forming nearly half the market, while regional neighbors like the Philippines and Vietnam add stability. This analysis, covering 2025 Q2, is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q2 Export Background

Indonesia’s coal exports (HS Code 2701: Coal; briquettes and similar solid fuels) remain critical for global power generation and steel production, sustaining steady demand despite energy shifts. However, Q2 2025 saw a 12% drop in shipments [Fair Observer], as new policies like Regulation 10/2025 push coal retirement and net-zero goals [Jet Knowledge]. Yet, Indonesia’s pricing flexibility and India’s rising imports [CXO Today] keep it a key supplier amid market adjustments.

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q2 Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia's coal exports under HS Code 2701 in Q2 2025 saw a notable 7.4% quarter-over-quarter decline in export value, dropping to $5.75 billion from $6.21 billion in Q1, driven by persistently lower unit prices and a sharp volume contraction in June.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The quarter-over-quarter decrease in value was primarily due to unit prices stabilizing at $0.06 USD/kg throughout Q2, down from an average of $0.067 USD/kg in Q1, while volumes showed slight instability with a June dip to 27.77 billion kg. Coal exports typically maintain steady demand cycles, but the Q2 volume volatility—especially the 17.4% month-over-month drop from May to June—suggests potential inventory adjustments or reduced orders ahead of seasonal shifts, rather than a structural change, as overall Q2 volume remained flat compared to Q1.

External Context and Outlook

This trend aligns with reported external pressures, including a 12% year-over-year decline in thermal coal shipments in early 2025 due to reduced demand from key markets like China and India [Fair Observer], compounded by Indonesia's new energy transition policies such as Regulation 10/2025 aiming to phase out coal dependence (Fair Observer). Additionally, the scrapping of government pricing rules in mid-2025 allowed more market flexibility but introduced uncertainty, while a potential export levy in 2026 could further impact costs and volumes (Marketscreener). Looking ahead, Indonesia Coal Export faces headwinds from global decarbonization efforts and shifting trade dynamics, though demand from alternative markets like India may offer some support.

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q2 Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In 2025 Q2, Indonesia's coal export under HS Code 2701 is highly concentrated in sub-code 27011900, described as 'Coal; (other than anthracite and bituminous), whether or not pulverised but not agglomerated'. This product holds a 78% value share and 84% weight share, with a unit price of $0.06 per kilogram, significantly lower than other sub-codes, indicating its role as a bulk, lower-grade commodity. No extreme price anomalies are present in the data.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The remaining sub-codes, 27011290 and 27011210, both involve bituminous coal and are grouped as higher-grade variants due to their elevated unit prices of $0.08 and $0.10 per kilogram, respectively. This structure confirms that Indonesia's coal exports under HS Code 2701 are primarily fungible bulk commodities, where pricing is closely tied to quality grades rather than value-added processing, typical of raw material trade.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For market players, the dominance of low-priced coal limits pricing power, as bulk commodities are sensitive to global demand shifts. [Fair Observer] reports a 12% decline in Indonesia's coal exports in early 2025, reinforcing pressure on margins. Strategic focus should prioritize cost efficiency and exploring premium grades to mitigate risks in a volatile market.

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Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q2 Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

In Q2 2025, Indonesia's coal exports show strong concentration in India, which leads with 30.65% of the weight share but a lower 24.95% value share, pointing to bulk, lower-grade coal shipments under HS Code 2701. This value-weight disparity suggests that India imports large volumes at relatively lower prices, typical for commodity trades like thermal coal. China Mainland and Philippines follow as key partners, but India's dominance shapes the export landscape for Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q2.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The top importers form two clear clusters: first, India and China Mainland, which together account for over 45% of weight, driven by high energy demand and geographic proximity, though recent news indicates a 12% drop in Indonesian coal exports early 2025 due to reduced Asian demand [Fair Observer]. Second, regional neighbors like Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam represent a steady cluster with combined weight over 29%, likely due to shorter supply chains and consistent power needs. A third group, including Japan and South Korea, shows smaller shares but可能 higher-grade imports, reflecting diversified energy strategies.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

For Indonesian coal exporters, the geographic spread calls for pivoting to stable markets like India, which emerged as a key destination in Q2 2025 amid trade shifts [CXO Today]. With potential export levies in 2026 and policy changes easing pricing rules [Marketscreener], firms should secure long-term contracts and monitor Asian demand trends to mitigate risks from declining volumes.

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Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q2 Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

In Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q2 under HS Code 2701, the buyer market shows extreme concentration among four segments of buyers. Buyers who purchase high values frequently dominate, accounting for 87.11% of the total export value. This segment also handles 84.99% of the quantity, indicating that a small group of large, regular buyers drives most of the trade. The overall market is characterized by high-volume, frequent transactions, with median activity skewed towards these dominant players.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other buyer segments play smaller but distinct roles. Buyers with high value but low frequency likely represent large, infrequent deals, such as spot market purchases or bulk contracts, contributing 6.63% to value. Those with low value but high frequency are probably smaller, regular consumers like local distributors, adding 1.75% to value. The low value and low frequency group might include occasional or niche buyers, accounting for 4.51% of value. For a commodity like coal, this mix suggests a market with both stable, long-term demand and variable, opportunistic trading.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For Indonesian exporters, the high reliance on frequent, high-value buyers requires a strategic focus on maintaining these key relationships to sustain revenue. However, this concentration increases vulnerability to demand shifts or policy changes. The recent 12% decline in coal exports in early 2025 [Fair Observer] underscores the risk, compounded by new regulations like the energy transition roadmap (Fair Observer) and potential export levies. Exporters should diversify their buyer base and adapt sales models to include more flexible pricing, as seen with the scrapped government pricing rules, to mitigate risks and capture emerging opportunities in markets like India.

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Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q2 Export: Action Plan for Coal Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q2 under HS Code 2701 is dominated by bulk, low-grade coal. Price is driven by quality grade differences and concentrated buyer demand from Asia. High reliance on India and China for volume creates vulnerability to their energy policies and demand shifts. The supply chain implication is a focus on cost-efficient bulk logistics with limited pricing power. Recent export declines and potential new levies increase risk.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Coal Market Execution

• Use HS Code 2701 sub-code data to track premium grade shipments. Target buyers paying higher unit prices to improve margin stability.
• Analyze buyer frequency patterns to secure long-term contracts with high-value, regular clients. This reduces exposure to spot market volatility.
• Monitor real-time import data from India and China. Adjust shipment schedules quickly to capture demand spikes and avoid inventory buildup.
• Diversify into markets like Vietnam and Malaysia using trade flow analytics. Balance geographic risk if key buyers reduce orders.
• Track policy announcements from Indonesia and importing countries. Proactively adjust pricing strategies to mitigate impact of new regulations or levies.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Coal Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q2?

A1. Indonesia's coal exports declined by 7.4% in Q2 2025 due to lower unit prices ($0.06/kg) and a 17.4% month-over-month volume drop in June, reflecting reduced demand from key markets like India and China.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q2?

A2. India dominates with 30.7% of weight share, followed by China Mainland and regional neighbors like the Philippines, which collectively account for over 45% of total exports.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q2 partner countries?

A3. Price differences stem from product grades: bulk, lower-grade coal (sub-code 27011900) at $0.06/kg dominates, while bituminous variants (sub-codes 27011290/27011210) command higher prices ($0.08–$0.10/kg).

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Coal export market?

A4. Exporters must prioritize cost efficiency and diversify buyer bases beyond the 87% revenue reliance on high-value buyers, while securing long-term contracts to mitigate volatility risks.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Coal export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

A5. Buyers in India and regional markets benefit from stable bulk supply, but should monitor potential export levies and Indonesia’s energy transition policies impacting future availability.

Q6. How is Coal typically used in this trade flow?

A6. Indonesia’s coal exports under HS Code 2701 are primarily fungible bulk commodities, used for power generation and industrial energy needs in partner countries.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

Q8. How can yTrade benefit my business?

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Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

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