Indonesia Coal HS2701 Export Data 2025 May Overview

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 May Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia's coal exports under HS Code 2701 in May 2025 reveal stark geographic concentration, with India dominating as the top importer by volume but receiving lower-grade coal at discounted prices. High-volume buyers like India, China, and the Philippines absorb over 55% of shipments, reflecting cost-sensitive energy demand, while Japan and South Korea import higher-quality coal for industrial use. Exporters face looming risks from Indonesia's planned 2026 levies, urging diversification into premium markets or cleaner technologies. This analysis, covering May 2025, is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 May Export Background

Indonesia's coal exports (HS Code 2701: Coal; briquettes and similar solid fuels) remain vital for power generation and steel production, with global demand holding steady despite energy transition pressures. In May 2025, Indonesia grappled with policy shifts, finalizing coal export duties [Antara News] while facing a projected 20-30M ton export decline [yTrade]. As the world’s top thermal coal exporter, Indonesia balances domestic energy needs and reliance on key markets like India and China, even as it signals a potential 2026 export levy [Petromindo].

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 May Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

In May 2025, Indonesia's coal exports under HS Code 2701 saw a significant month-over-month volume increase of approximately 9%, reaching 33.60 billion kg, while unit prices remained stable at $0.06 USD/kg, reflecting a potential short-term demand spike amid broader annual decline projections.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The volume surge from April's 30.81 billion kg to May's 33.60 billion kg, coupled with a slight value rise to $2.09 billion, suggests a temporary inventory build or seasonal demand fluctuation, common in coal markets where pre-monsoon stockpiling or regional energy needs can cause monthly volatility. However, this MoM gain contrasts with the overall 2025 trend of declining exports, indicating that the increase may be an outlier rather than a reversal, as industry cycles point to sustained pressure from global energy transition shifts.

External Context and Outlook

This volatility is partly driven by policy uncertainties, including Indonesia's finalized export duty formula [antaranews.com] and signaled levies for 2026 (Petromindo), which may have prompted accelerated shipments ahead of changes. With a projected 20-30 million ton annual export decline [ytrade.com] and mixed signals on coal phaseout (greencentralbanking.com), Indonesia Coal Export faces headwinds from slowing global demand and domestic energy transition efforts, likely sustaining downward pressure on volumes through 2025.

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 May Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In May 2025, Indonesia's coal export under HS Code 2701 is dominated by the sub-code 27011900, which covers coal other than anthracite and bituminous. This product holds a 79.14% value share and 84.76% weight share, with a unit price of USD 0.06 per kilogram, showing a focus on high-volume, lower-value coal.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The other sub-codes, 27011290 and 27011210, both for bituminous coal, have higher unit prices of USD 0.08 and USD 0.10 per kilogram. This indicates a simple grade-based structure, where coal is traded as a fungible bulk commodity with prices tied to quality differences rather than complex processing.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

Market players face limited pricing power due to the commodity nature of coal, with reliance on global indices and demand fluctuations. Focusing on higher-grade coals could improve margins. [ytrade.com] notes a projected decline in Indonesia's coal export volume for 2025, emphasizing the need for strategic shifts toward value retention.

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Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 May Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

Indonesia's coal export in May 2025 shows high geographic concentration, with India dominating as the top importer by weight, accounting for 30.40% of total weight but only 24.31% of value, indicating lower unit price coal shipments there. This disparity suggests India receives lower-grade coal, with an estimated unit price around $0.05 per kg, reflecting its high-volume, cost-sensitive energy demand. The analysis for HS Code 2701 highlights India's crucial role in absorbing Indonesia's export volume during this period.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The importers form two clear clusters: first, high-volume buyers like India, China Mainland, and the Philippines, which together take over 55% of weight but at lower value ratios, likely due to their massive energy needs and preference for affordable coal for power generation. Second, countries like Japan and South Korea have higher value ratios relative to weight, pointing to imports of higher-quality coal for industrial use, driven by stricter environmental standards and advanced infrastructure.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

Market players should prepare for reduced export volumes and potential cost increases due to Indonesia's planned export duties and levies in 2026, as mentioned in [Petromindo]. Diversifying to higher-value markets or investing in cleaner coal technologies could mitigate risks from declining global demand and domestic policy shifts, ensuring supply chain resilience for Indonesia Coal Export 2025 May. (Petromindo)

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Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 May Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

In May 2025, Indonesia Coal Export under HS Code 2701 shows a highly concentrated buyer market, dominated by one key group. Buyers who place high-value orders frequently control 88.24% of the export value and 70.50% of shipment frequency, indicating a market driven by consistent, large-volume transactions. This dominance defines the overall trade for coal, with the median export pattern centered on regular, high-volume deals across the four segments of buyers.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other buyer groups play smaller but distinct roles. Buyers with high value but low frequency likely represent major, infrequent bulk purchases, such as long-term contracts for power plants or large industrial users. Those with low value but high frequency may be smaller, regular buyers involved in spot market sales or regional distribution. The cluster with low value and low frequency probably consists of occasional or niche buyers, perhaps for specialized coal grades or trial shipments, contributing minimally to overall trade.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For Indonesian exporters, the strategic focus should remain on nurturing relationships with high-value, frequent buyers to maintain revenue stability. However, reliance on this group creates vulnerability to market shifts, such as reduced global demand or policy changes. [Antara News] reports finalized export duties, and a potential levy in 2026 (Petromindo) could increase costs, emphasizing the need for diversified buyer engagement to mitigate risks from concentrated dependence.

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Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 May Export: Action Plan for Coal Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Coal Export 2025 May under HS Code 2701 operates as a bulk commodity trade. Price is driven by coal grade differences and global demand indices. High-volume, lower-grade coal dominates shipments to price-sensitive markets like India. This creates reliance on a few large buyers, increasing exposure to demand shifts and policy risks. Supply chains must prioritize volume security and cost control, especially with upcoming export duties threatening margins.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Coal Market Execution

• Use HS Code 2701 sub-code data to shift export mix toward higher-grade coals like 27011210. This directly increases unit revenue per shipment.
• Analyze buyer frequency patterns to diversify beyond top clients. Reducing dependence on a few large buyers mitigates risk from demand drops.
• Target geographic markets with higher value-to-weight ratios, such as Japan and South Korea. This improves margin stability amid global coal volatility.
• Monitor real-time trade data for policy updates on Indonesia’s export levies. Early adaptation prevents cost surprises and supply chain disruptions.
• Engage smaller, frequent buyers with tailored offerings to build a resilient secondary client base. This ensures steady cash flow if major contracts weaken.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Coal Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Coal Export 2025 May?

A1. Indonesia's coal exports surged 9% month-over-month in May 2025, likely due to pre-policy stockpiling ahead of announced export duties, though annual declines are projected amid global energy transition pressures.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Coal Export 2025 May?

A2. India dominates with 30.4% of weight share, followed by China Mainland and the Philippines, forming a cluster absorbing over 55% of volume for cost-sensitive energy needs.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Coal Export 2025 May partner countries?

A3. Price differences stem from grade specialization: India receives lower-value coal ($0.05/kg) while Japan and South Korea import higher-grade coal ($0.08–$0.10/kg) for industrial use.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Coal export market?

A4. Exporters should prioritize high-value, frequent buyers (88.24% of export value) while diversifying to premium markets like Japan to offset reliance on bulk, price-sensitive destinations.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Coal export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

A5. High-volume buyers (e.g., India) benefit from stable low-grade supply, but policy shifts may disrupt cost structures, whereas premium buyers face tighter competition for higher-quality coal.

Q6. How is Coal typically used in this trade flow?

A6. Coal is primarily traded as a bulk commodity for power generation, with lower grades fueling energy demand in emerging markets and higher grades serving industrial needs in advanced economies.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

Q8. How can yTrade benefit my business?

yTrade helps businesses:

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Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

yTrade provides practical, trade-focused tools including:

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