Indonesia Coal HS2701 Export Data 2025 October Overview

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 October Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia Coal Export 2025 October under HS Code 2701 reveals a high concentration in Asia, with China and India dominating volume but Japan commanding premium prices, signaling divergent coal grades. Buyer risk is elevated due to heavy reliance on a few key markets, while export volumes face a projected 20-30 million ton decline in 2025. This analysis, covering October 2025, is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 October Export Background

Indonesia's coal exports (HS Code 2701: Coal; briquettes and similar solid fuels) remain vital for power generation and steel production, with stable global demand from key markets like India, China, and Japan. However, the Indonesia Coal Export 2025 October outlook shows a projected 20–30 million ton decline due to slowing demand and domestic shifts[ytrade]. The government has finalized an export duty formula tied to global prices[Antara News], while a 2026 levy looms, positioning Indonesia at a crossroads between energy transition and export reliance.

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 October Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

October 2025's Indonesia Coal Export (HS Code 2701) saw a sharp monthly decline, with export value dropping to $1.68 billion and volume falling to 27.34 billion kg, marking the lowest point in the year and a significant retreat from September's higher figures.

Price and Volume Dynamics

Month-over-month, export volume decreased by approximately 20% from September to October, while the unit price held steady at $0.06/kg throughout 2025. This volatility aligns with typical coal industry cycles, where pre-winter stock replenishment in key markets like India and China often drives Q3 highs, followed by a Q4 cooldown as demand stabilizes. The consistent low pricing reflects oversupply pressures and competitive global markets, overshadowing any seasonal spikes.

External Context and Outlook

The observed decline corroborates reports of a projected 20-30 million ton export reduction in 2025 [yTrade], driven by slowing global demand and Indonesia's domestic energy shift. With finalized export duties and a potential levy in 2026 (Antara News), future exports face increased cost pressures, though coal's exclusion from broader restrictions (CEPR) may cushion immediate impacts. The outlook remains cautious, balancing phaseout commitments with ongoing reliance on key buyers.

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 October Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In October 2025, Indonesia's coal export under HS Code 2701 is dominated by lower-grade coal, specifically 'Coal; (other than anthracite and bituminous), whether or not pulverised but not agglomerated', which holds a 74% value share and 82% weight share. This sub-code has a unit price of 0.06 USD per kilogram, lower than other grades, confirming a focus on high-volume, low-value exports.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The remaining sub-codes consist of bituminous coal varieties, with unit prices ranging from 0.08 to 0.11 USD per kilogram, indicating a higher value grade. This structure shows that Indonesia's coal export is based on fungible bulk commodities, differentiated primarily by coal grade rather than any value-added processing, and is likely tied to global price indices.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

As a bulk commodity trader, Indonesia has limited pricing power and must compete on volume and cost efficiency. The market concentration on lower-grade coal aligns with a strategy targeting high-volume buyers like India, China, and Japan, as noted in [ytrade.com], which reports a projected export decline and reliance on these key markets. Future risks include potential export duties (Antaranews, Petromindo) that could impact margins, emphasizing the need for cost management and market diversification.

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Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 October Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

Indonesia Coal Export 2025 October under HS Code 2701 was highly concentrated in Asia, with China Mainland as the dominant importer by weight at 24.99% share but only 22.45% by value, indicating a lower unit price and likely lower-grade coal shipments. India followed with 19.97% weight share and 16.41% value share, reinforcing this pattern of high-volume, lower-value imports. In contrast, Japan had a much higher value share of 13.24% against only 8.04% weight share, suggesting imports of higher-quality, premium coal at a higher unit price.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The top importers form two clear clusters: first, China and India, which together take nearly 45% of weight share due to their massive energy demands and geographic proximity, favoring bulk, lower-cost coal. Second, Japan stands out with high value per weight, likely driven by its need for high-quality coal for industrial processes. A third cluster includes Southeast Asian nations like Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam, with moderate shares tied to regional energy growth and shorter supply chains.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

With Indonesia's coal export volume projected to decline by 20-30 million tons in 2025 [yTrade], market players should prioritize securing relationships with key buyers like India and China while exploring premium markets like Japan to offset volume drops. The finalization of export duties and potential 2026 levies (Antaranews, Petromindo) means exporters must prepare for cost increases and possibly shift to higher-value coal grades to maintain profitability amid global energy transition pressures.

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Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 October Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

In October 2025, the Indonesia Coal Export market for HS Code 2701 shows strong concentration, with four segments of buyers. The dominant group, making up 86.65% of export value, involves buyers with high purchase amounts and regular transactions. This group also handles 72.26% of all orders, indicating a market where a few large, frequent buyers drive most sales. The median market behavior leans towards high value and high frequency due to this dominance.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other buyer groups play smaller but distinct roles. Buyers with high value but low frequency account for 5.73% of value, suggesting occasional large purchases, possibly for stockpiling or specific projects. Those with low value but high frequency contribute 2.95% of value, representing smaller, regular buyers like local distributors or minor consumers. The group with low value and low frequency adds 4.67% of value, likely consisting of infrequent, small-scale buyers such as trial orders or niche markets.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For exporters in Indonesia, the focus should remain on securing relationships with the dominant high-value, high-frequency buyers to maintain revenue. However, risks include potential policy changes, such as the signaled coal export levy in 2026 [Petromindo], which could impact costs and demand. The sales model must prioritize reliability and volume to cater to these key buyers, while monitoring for shifts in global demand that might affect the smaller segments.

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Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 October Export: Action Plan for Coal Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Coal Export 2025 October under HS Code 2701 is dominated by low-grade coal. Price is driven by global coal indices and coal grade differentials. The supply chain relies on high-volume shipments to Asia. Key risks include potential 2026 export levies and falling global demand. This creates a volume-focused model with thin margins. Exporters must prioritize cost efficiency and supply security.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Coal Market Execution

• Analyze buyer frequency clusters to lock in long-term contracts with high-volume importers. This secures stable revenue despite market volatility.
• Use HS Code 2701 sub-code unit price data to shift sales toward higher-grade bituminous coal. This improves margin per shipment and reduces exposure to low-value demand.
• Monitor real-time shipment data for China and India to anticipate order cycles and prevent inventory pile-up. This optimizes logistics costs and storage planning.
• Track policy announcements from sources like Petromindo to model cost impacts of potential levies. This enables proactive pricing strategies to protect profitability.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Coal Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Coal Export 2025 October?

The sharp decline in October 2025 is due to typical seasonal cooling after Q3 pre-winter stock replenishment in key markets, compounded by oversupply pressures and a projected 20-30 million ton export reduction for the year.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Coal Export 2025 October?

China (24.99% weight share), India (19.97%), and Japan (13.24% value share) dominate, with China and India focusing on bulk lower-grade coal and Japan importing higher-value grades.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Coal Export 2025 October partner countries?

Price differences stem from coal grade specialization: lower-grade sub-codes (74% value share) average $0.06/kg for China/India, while Japan pays $0.08–$0.11/kg for premium bituminous varieties.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Coal export market?

Prioritize relationships with high-value, high-frequency buyers (86.65% of export value) while exploring premium markets like Japan to offset volume declines and potential cost pressures from 2026 levies.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Coal export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers in China/India benefit from stable low-cost supply, while Japanese buyers secure higher-quality coal. All face reliance on Indonesia’s volume-driven strategy amid global demand shifts.

Q6. How is Coal typically used in this trade flow?

Exported coal primarily fuels power generation and industrial processes, with lower grades for mass energy needs and higher grades for specialized applications like steel production.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

Q8. How can yTrade benefit my business?

yTrade helps businesses:

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Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

yTrade provides practical, trade-focused tools including:

• Global shipment search by HS code, product, company name, port, or country
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