Indonesia Coal HS2701 Export Data 2025 Q3 Overview

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q3 Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia's coal exports under HS Code 2701 in Q3 2025 reveal a market split between high-volume, low-value shipments to India and China and premium markets like Japan, where quality commands higher prices. Buyer concentration is high, with India alone accounting for 24% of volume, while the overall market faces a projected 20-30 million ton decline, pressuring suppliers to prioritize value-driven buyers. This analysis, covering 2025 Q3, is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database. Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q3 hinges on balancing bulk demand with premium opportunities as global conditions tighten.

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q3 Export Background

Indonesia’s coal exports (HS Code 2701: Coal; briquettes and similar solid fuels) power global industries like energy and steel, with steady demand from key markets like China and India. However, the Ministry of Energy projects a 20–30 million ton drop in 2025 exports due to slowing global demand and domestic policy shifts, including relaxed pricing rules to boost flexibility [Petromindo]. Despite this, Indonesia remains a top supplier, with Q3 2025 GDP growth at 5.04%, partly driven by coal’s role in export revenues [LetsMoveIndonesia].

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q3 Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

In Q3 2025, Indonesia's coal export volume surged quarter-over-quarter, but unit prices remained depressed, highlighting the sector's struggle with oversupply and weak global demand. The most significant change was a 9.5% increase in volume from Q2, while average unit prices edged down slightly, reinforcing price pressure trends.

Price and Volume Dynamics

Quarter-over-quarter, Indonesia Coal Export (HS Code 2701) volume rose from approximately 92.2 billion units in Q2 to 100.9 billion in Q3, driven by miners pushing sales amid high inventory levels and competitive pricing. However, unit prices averaged $0.059/kg in Q3, down from $0.062/kg in Q2, reflecting typical coal industry cycles where oversupply leads to price erosion despite volume gains. Year-over-year, the data implies a decline in export value aligned with broader market contractions, as producers prioritize volume over price to maintain market share.

External Context and Outlook

This trend is directly influenced by Indonesia's policy shifts and global demand slowdown. The government's move to scrap benchmark price floors [Petromindo] allowed flexible pricing, exacerbating price competition, while projected export drops of 20-30 million tons in 2025 (Petromindo) signal sustained pressure. With key markets like China and India reducing imports [ytrade], the outlook remains cautious, emphasizing the need for diversification and efficiency in Indonesia's coal sector.

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q3 Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

In Q3 2025, Indonesia's coal exports under HS Code 2701 are dominated by sub-code 27011900, which represents coal other than anthracite and bituminous and accounts for over 80% of the weight and 73% of the value, with a low unit price of USD 0.05 per kilogram. This indicates a strong focus on bulk, lower-grade coal varieties during this period.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The export structure includes higher-value sub-codes: bituminous coal under 27011290 and 27011210 with unit prices of USD 0.08 and USD 0.10 per kilogram, and anthracite coal under 27011100 at USD 0.09 per kilogram. These categories reflect a market segmented by quality grades, but the overall trade remains characteristic of fungible bulk commodities, where prices are often tied to global indices due to standardized grading.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q3, the reliance on bulk coal under HS Code 2701 suggests limited pricing power, as oversupply and commodity nature pressure margins. [Petromindo] projects export declines, reinforcing the need for strategies focused on cost efficiency or exploring premium coal niches to mitigate risks. (Petromindo)

Check Detailed HS 2701 Breakdown

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q3 Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

In Q3 2025, Indonesia's coal exports under HS Code 2701 are dominated by India, which holds the largest share by weight at 24.13% but a lower value ratio of 18.01%, indicating a trend of lower-value per kilogram shipments, likely due to lower-grade coal. China Mainland follows with a weight ratio of 21.37% and value ratio of 19.39%, showing a similar pattern of high volume but modest value, reinforcing the focus on bulk, cost-sensitive markets for Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q3.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The top importers form two clear clusters: first, India, China, and the Philippines, which together account for over 50% of weight but have value ratios below or near weight ratios, pointing to high demand for affordable thermal coal in energy sectors. Second, Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea show higher value per weight (e.g., Japan's value ratio of 13.67% exceeds its weight ratio of 7.87%), suggesting preferences for higher-quality coal for industrial use, driven by stricter emissions standards or specialized needs.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

With Indonesia's coal exports projected to decline by 20-30 million tons in 2025 [Petromindo], suppliers should prioritize markets like Japan and South Korea that offer better value, while exploring ASEAN diversification to mitigate oversupply risks. Emphasizing quality upgrades and flexible pricing could help maintain competitiveness in a contracting global market.

Get Complete Partner Countries Profile

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q3 Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q3 for HS Code 2701 is heavily concentrated among a core group of high-volume, frequent buyers. One segment of buyers is overwhelmingly dominant, accounting for 84% of the total export value and 82% of the quantity. This group of buyers, which includes firms like BARAMULTI SUKSESSARANA TBK, conducts the vast majority of trade, defining the market as one driven by large, regular shipments.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The remaining three segments of buyers play smaller, distinct roles. A second group makes infrequent but very large purchases, representing 8% of the value. A third group consists of frequent buyers who purchase smaller amounts per transaction, contributing just 3% of the total value. A final, smaller cluster makes both infrequent and low-value purchases, accounting for 5% of the export value. These groups likely represent spot market traders, regional distributors, and occasional small-volume buyers, respectively.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For Indonesian exporters, the strategy must focus on maintaining strong relationships with the dominant high-volume buyers, as they are the primary revenue source. The high market concentration creates vulnerability to demand shifts from these few key clients. This risk is heightened by the projected 20–30 million ton decline in national coal exports for 2025 [Petromindo]. The sales model should therefore prioritize securing long-term contracts with major buyers while cautiously managing exposure to the more volatile smaller segments.

Check Full Coal Buyer lists

Indonesia Coal (HS 2701) 2025 Q3 Export: Action Plan for Coal Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q3 under HS Code 2701 faces price pressure from its bulk commodity nature. Key price drivers are global coal indices and buyer demand for low-cost thermal coal, as over 80% of volume comes from lower-grade categories like 27011900. Major buyers in India and China prioritize volume over quality, squeezing margins. The supply chain implication is high vulnerability to demand shifts from a few large clients, risking revenue stability amid projected export declines of 20-30 million tons in 2025. Indonesia's role remains that of a volume-driven supplier, with limited leverage to command premium prices without strategic shifts.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Coal Market Execution

• Negotiate long-term contracts with dominant high-volume buyers using trade data to secure stable revenue and reduce exposure to spot market volatility, as these clients drive 84% of export value.
• Target premium markets like Japan and South Korea by analyzing HS Code sub-categories (e.g., 27011210 for higher-value bituminous coal) to increase unit prices and diversify away from low-margin bulk buyers.
• Monitor buyer purchase frequency and volume patterns to anticipate order cycles and optimize inventory levels, preventing overstock or shortages during demand fluctuations.
• Explore ASEAN market opportunities with flexible pricing strategies for smaller, frequent buyers to build resilience against reliance on a few major importers.
• Invest in quality upgrading for select export batches to meet stricter emissions standards in premium markets, enabling better value capture per ton shipped.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Coal Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q3?

A1. Indonesia's coal exports surged 9.5% in volume in Q3 2025 due to oversupply and competitive pricing, but unit prices fell to $0.059/kg, reflecting weak global demand and policy shifts like scrapping price floors.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q3?

A2. India (24.1% by weight) and China (21.4% by weight) dominate, followed by the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea, with the latter two paying higher unit prices for quality coal.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Coal Export 2025 Q3 partner countries?

A3. Lower-grade coal (sub-code 27011900, 80% of volume) drives down prices in bulk markets like India, while Japan and South Korea pay premiums for higher-grade bituminous and anthracite coal.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Coal export market?

A4. Exporters must secure long-term contracts with dominant buyers (84% of value) while diversifying into premium markets like Japan and South Korea to offset price pressures from oversupply.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Coal export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

A5. Bulk buyers (e.g., India, China) benefit from low prices but face reliance on Indonesian supply, while niche buyers (e.g., Japan) gain access to higher-grade coal at stable premiums.

Q6. How is Coal typically used in this trade flow?

A6. Most exports are low-grade thermal coal for power generation, with smaller volumes of high-quality coal (bituminous/anthracite) serving industrial or specialized energy needs.

Q7. What is yTrade?

yTrade is a global trade data platform that provides SaaS and API access to provide accurate, structured, and searchable import-export trade data for international business decisions. It enables users to access verified shipment records, analyse buyer and supplier activity, review company trade overviews, assess compliance risks, and monitor real market demand — all from a single, scalable system.

Q8. How can yTrade benefit my business?

yTrade helps businesses:

• Identify active and verified buyers through global import data
• Discover reliable suppliers with real shipment history
• Monitor competitor previous trade activity
• Reduce sourcing and compliance risk with worldwide export data
• Support data-driven sales, procurement, and market expansion decisions
• Save time by replacing manual research with structured trade data analysis

Q9. What features does yTrade offer?

yTrade provides practical, trade-focused tools including:

• Global shipment search by HS code, product, company name, port, or country
• Detailed company trade profiles with ownership and relationship mapping
• Buyer and supplier discovery with real transaction trade records
• Basic compliance with background checks and sanctions risk screening
• Competitor's shipment tracking and selling/buying behaviour analysis
• Trade Trends to identify market demand and trade flow monitoring
• Big-Data Search engine with percised filters to generate accurate data reports
• Global Trade Data API access for Internal Softwares like CRM, ERP, and SaaS integration All data is structured, verified, and cleaned to ensure consistency and reliability.