2025 Indonesia Natural Rubber (HS 400122) Export: Volume Drop

Key Takeaways

Natural Rubber, classified under HS Code 400122 (Rubber; technically specified natural rubber (TSNR), in primary forms or plates, sheets or strip (excluding latex and smoked sheets)), exhibited high volatility from January to October 2025.

• Market Pulse: Export volumes plunged 32.2% in October after a mid-year drop of 15.6%, driven by Indonesia’s shifting export policies and trade uncertainty.
• Structural Shift: Indonesia Natural Rubber Export revenue hinges on three markets—Japan, China, and the U.S.—which account for nearly 60% of total value, creating acute concentration risk.
• Product Logic: HS Code 400122 trade data confirms a bulk-commodity structure, with 85.6% of exports tied to a single technical specification and prices clustered tightly around $1.80–$1.97/kg.

This overview covers the period from January to October 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Natural Rubber (HS Code 400122) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The Indonesia Natural Rubber Export trend under HS Code 400122 showed strong initial performance in early 2025 before experiencing significant mid-year volatility. Exports started with steady volumes around 140M kg monthly from January to April, then dropped sharply in June to 120.83M kg—a 15.6% monthly decline—before partially recovering to 138.77M kg by September. October saw another steep contraction to 94.13M kg, down 32.2% from September, reflecting mounting pressure on export volumes.

Drivers & Industry Context

The June export collapse and October plunge align with Indonesia’s updated export control policies enacted in early 2025. The March 2025 Ministry of Finance Decree (No. 6/KM.4/2025) revised restrictions on commodity exports to support domestic value-added processing and environmental goals [SSEK], likely disrupting rubber supply chains. While HS Code 400122 was not explicitly banned, broader trade policy uncertainty—coupled with June’s import deregulation for other sectors [China Briefing]—contributed to volatile shipment scheduling and eroded the hs code 400122 value, which fell 19.7% in June alone. Exporters likely accelerated shipments ahead of expected regulatory enforcement, creating a boom-bust pattern across the period.

Table: Indonesia Natural Rubber Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia HS Code 400122 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

Indonesia's HS Code 400122 export market is overwhelmingly dominated by a single technical specification, which accounts for 85.6% of the total export value throughout the first ten months of 2025. According to yTrade data, this category represents the core of Indonesia's natural rubber export trade. The remaining sub-codes consist of other technical specifications that collectively make up a minor share of the market.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

The unit price logic for this Indonesia HS Code 400122 breakdown shows a commodity market structure, with most prices clustered tightly between $1.80 and $1.97 per kilogram. A few minor specifications command a slight premium, reaching up to $3.65/kg, suggesting niche demand for specific grades. This trade structure confirms natural rubber's status as a bulk commodity where price, not specialization, is the primary competitive driver.

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Indonesia Natural Rubber Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

Indonesia's Natural Rubber exports from January to October 2025 show heavy reliance on Japan, which captured 20.93% of total export value. This dominance among Indonesia Natural Rubber export destinations creates significant market concentration risk, as over one-fifth of revenue depends on a single buyer. The top three partners—Japan, China, and the United States—collectively represent nearly 60% of export value, underscoring a vulnerable trade structure.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

Japan's nearly identical value and weight ratios (20.93% vs 21.00%) reveal a commodity-driven market where price sensitivity outweighs quality premiums. The high frequency of shipments (18.65% of total transactions) indicates structured bulk procurement rather than fragmented buying. This pattern confirms trade partners for Natural Rubber prioritize volume scale over margin potential, typical for industrial processing and manufacturing supply chains.

Table: Indonesia Natural Rubber (HS Code 400122) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia Natural Rubber Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data from January to October 2025, Indonesia Natural Rubber buyers are overwhelmingly dominated by a core group of high-volume repeaters. This segment accounts for 97.65% of the total export value, indicating a market built on stable, contract-based supply chains with major industrial consumers. Representative companies like SINGAPORE TONG TEIK PTE LTD exemplify these key accounts that drive consistent, high-value trade flows.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The extreme concentration in a few loyal partners signals significant client dependency risk; losing even one major account could severely impact revenue. Sales strategy must prioritize securing long-term contracts and offering volume-based incentives to lock in these anchor buyers. For HS Code 400122 buyer trends, this means focusing on reliability and supply chain integration rather than pursuing fragmented, spot-market opportunities.

Table: Indonesia Natural Rubber (HS Code 400122) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

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Action Plan for Natural Rubber Market Operation and Expansion

• Diversify buyer base: Reduce reliance on Japan (20.93% of exports) and other top markets by targeting secondary hubs in Europe or Southeast Asia to mitigate concentration risk.
• Lock in contracts: Secure long-term agreements with high-volume repeat buyers (97.65% of export value) to stabilize revenue against volatile shipment schedules.
• Optimize logistics: Focus on bulk shipping efficiencies to offset thin margins, given the commodity-driven pricing of HS Code 400122.
• Monitor policy shifts: Track Indonesia’s export regulations closely, as abrupt changes (like the March 2025 decree) directly impact shipment volumes and timing.
• Explore premium niches: Test demand for rare specifications priced up to $3.65/kg, though these represent a minor share of current trade.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Natural Rubber HS Code 400122 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Natural Rubber Export in 2025?

The volatility in Indonesia's Natural Rubber exports is primarily due to regulatory changes, including export control policies enacted in early 2025. A sharp 32.2% drop in October followed a mid-year decline, reflecting supply chain disruptions and trade policy uncertainty.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Indonesia Natural Rubber (HS Code 400122) in 2025?

Japan, China, and the United States dominate, collectively accounting for nearly 60% of export value. Japan alone represents 20.93% of total exports, indicating high geographic concentration.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Indonesia Natural Rubber Export in 2025?

Most shipments are priced between $1.80 and $1.97/kg, reflecting a commodity-driven market. A few niche specifications command premiums up to $3.65/kg, but bulk demand prioritizes price over specialization.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Natural Rubber export market?

Exporters must secure long-term contracts with high-volume buyers, who drive 97.65% of trade value, and mitigate risks from over-reliance on Japan and other key markets.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Natural Rubber export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers benefit from stable, bulk-oriented supply chains but face dependency on Indonesian exporters. Price sensitivity dominates, with limited opportunities for premium-grade procurement.

Q6. How is Natural Rubber typically used in this trade flow?

The commodity-grade exports (85.6% of trade) are primarily destined for industrial processing, such as tire manufacturing or other bulk rubber product applications.

Detailed Monthly and Quarterly Report

Indonesia HS Code 400122 Export Data Snapshot 2025 JAN

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