2025 Uzbekistan Wheat Flour (HS 110100) Export: Surge & Risk

Key Takeaways

Wheat Flour, classified under HS Code 110100, exhibited volatile but expansionary performance from January to November 2025.

• Market Pulse: Export value surged from $8.33M in January to a July peak of $42.26M before moderating to $13.32M by November, driven by pre-duty shipments ahead of Uzbekistan's 30% export tax.
• Structural Shift: Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Export relies entirely on Afghanistan (99.9% of volume/value), creating extreme geographic risk with no diversification.
• Product Logic: HS Code 110100 trade data reveals a bulk-commodity structure—95% of exports are low-margin ($0.15/kg) flour, with minimal premium-grade activity.

This overview covers the period from January to November 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan Wheat Flour (HS Code 110100) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Export trend shows volatile but expansionary performance from January to November 2025. Total export value climbed from $8.33M in January to a July peak of $42.26M before moderating to $13.32M by November, while export weight followed a similar trajectory—starting at 48M kg, surging to 272M kg in July, then declining to 104M kg by November.

Drivers & Industry Context

The mid-year surge in export volume and value aligns with Uzbekistan's July 1 implementation of a 30% export duty on wheat, which likely triggered pre-duty shipments to avoid higher costs [Gazeta.uz]. The subsequent decline reflects both the duty's dampening effect and reported domestic harvest pressures, including potential yield reductions from drought [USDA Gain Report]. The overall value derived from HS Code 110100 remained elevated compared to early-year levels despite the contraction, indicating sustained external demand amid policy shifts.

Table: Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Uzbekistan HS Code 110100 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

The Uzbekistan HS Code 110100 export market is overwhelmingly dominated by one sub-category of wheat flour, which accounts for 95% of the volume and 93% of the value. According to yTrade data, this single bulk-grade product defines the trade flow. The remaining exports consist of two minor, higher-priced flour grades that together represent less than 5% of the total volume.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

The unit price logic reveals a classic commodity structure: the dominant product trades at just $0.15 per kg, while the niche grades command premiums of $0.25-$0.26 per kg. This HS Code 110100 breakdown confirms a price-sensitive bulk market, with a small segment catering to specialized quality demands. The trade structure is built on high-volume, low-margin exports, with limited value-add differentiation.

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Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

Uzbekistan's Wheat Flour export destinations show extreme concentration in Afghanistan, which captured 99.9% of total weight and value from January to November 2025. The remaining trade is fragmented across four neighboring Central Asian states, each holding less than 0.1% market share. This creates significant supply chain risk, as Uzbekistan's entire export revenue for this product depends entirely on a single, volatile market.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

The nearly identical ratios for value (99.88%) and weight (99.92%) indicate a pure commodity market with no premium segmentation. Afghanistan's purchasing pattern reflects large-scale, price-sensitive procurement for bulk food security programs or industrial processing, not retail fragmentation. For trade partners seeking Wheat Flour, Uzbekistan's exports are geared entirely toward volume scale, not margin potential.

Table: Uzbekistan Wheat Flour (HS Code 110100) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

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Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, the market is overwhelmingly dominated by a core group of Key Accounts, which represent 80.3% of all export value for Uzbekistan Wheat Flour buyers. This High-Volume Repeater segment, including firms like HABIB JASOR LTD, demonstrates a stable, contract-based supply chain with high purchase frequency. This structure points to a mature market reliant on established, long-term trade relationships rather than spot transactions.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

To protect these vital relationships, suppliers must prioritize contract stability and consistent quality to meet the recurring demand from these primary buyers. However, new export duties introduced in mid-2025 [Gazeta.uz] add a layer of regulatory risk that requires careful cost management in negotiations. Understanding these HS Code 110100 buyer trends is essential for navigating the balance between maintaining loyal partnerships and adapting to policy shifts.

Table: Uzbekistan Wheat Flour (HS Code 110100) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

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Action Plan for Wheat Flour Market Operation and Expansion

• Diversify buyers immediately: Afghanistan’s near-total dominance exposes Uzbekistan to political or logistical shocks. Target Central Asian neighbors for even marginal share gains.
• Lock in long-term contracts: High-Volume Repeaters (80.3% of buyers) demand stability. Pre-negotiate pricing to absorb export duty impacts post-2025.
• Optimize logistics costs: Bulk-grade flour’s razor-thin margins ($0.15/kg) require freight efficiency. Audit transport routes and bulk-loading processes.
• Monitor Afghan policy shifts: Any disruption to Afghanistan’s food security procurement would collapse demand. Track UN/WFP tender patterns for early warnings.
• Test premium niches: The 5% of higher-value flour ($0.25/kg) shows untapped potential. Pilot small batches for buyers in Kazakhstan or Tajikistan.

Take Action Now —— Explore Uzbekistan Wheat Flour HS Code 110100 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Export in 2025?

The mid-2025 surge and subsequent decline in exports were driven by Uzbekistan's 30% export duty implementation in July, which triggered pre-duty shipments followed by a contraction due to higher costs and domestic harvest pressures.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Uzbekistan Wheat Flour (HS Code 110100) in 2025?

Afghanistan dominates with 99.9% of Uzbekistan's wheat flour exports by weight and value, while four neighboring Central Asian states each account for less than 0.1%.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Export in 2025?

Price differences stem from product grades: the bulk-grade flour (95% of volume) trades at $0.15/kg, while niche grades (5% of volume) command premiums of $0.25-$0.26/kg.

Q4. What should exporters in Uzbekistan focus on in the current Wheat Flour export market?

Exporters must prioritize contract stability and consistent quality for key buyers (80.3% of export value) while managing risks from Afghanistan's market dependence and new export duties.

Q5. What does this Uzbekistan Wheat Flour export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers face a high-volume, low-margin commodity market with limited premium options, relying on Uzbekistan's bulk-grade flour for large-scale procurement needs.

Q6. How is Wheat Flour typically used in this trade flow?

The export structure indicates bulk-grade flour is primarily used for large-scale food security programs or industrial processing in Afghanistan, with minimal retail fragmentation.