2025 Uzbekistan Wheat Flour (HS 1101) Export: Extreme Volatility

Key Takeaways

Wheat Flour, classified under HS Code 1101, exhibited extreme volatility from January to November 2025.

• Market Pulse: Exports surged 243% in July 2025 due to pre-duty stockpiling, then entered a four-month contraction as Uzbekistan's 30% export duty took effect.
• Structural Shift: Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Export relies on Afghanistan for 99.88% of trade value, creating high exposure to single-market demand shocks.
• Product Logic: HS Code 1101 trade data reveals a commodity-driven market, with 92% of exports being low-margin standard wheat flour at $0.15–$0.26/kg.

This overview covers the period from January to November 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan Wheat Flour (HS Code 1101) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Export trend showed steady growth through the first half of 2025, with both value and volume rising consistently from January to March. This upward trajectory reversed abruptly in April before a strong May recovery. The most dramatic shift occurred in July, when export value surged 243% month-on-month to $42.26 million and volume exploded 319% to 272.48 million kg—representing the absolute peak for both metrics. Following this exceptional July performance, exports entered a sustained contraction phase through November, with both value and weight declining progressively each month.

Drivers & Industry Context

The July export surge aligns directly with Uzbekistan's new export duty regime implemented July 1, 2025 [Gazeta.uz]. Traders likely front-loaded shipments ahead of the 30% duty application to HS Code 1101 wheat flour exports, maximizing pre-duty revenue. The subsequent four-month decline reflects the policy's intended effect: the duty made exports less competitive, diverting product to domestic markets or processing. This policy shift explains why the hs code 1101 value dropped consistently from August onward, as the financial incentive for exports diminished substantially under the new tariff structure (Gazeta.uz).

Table: Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Uzbekistan HS Code 1101 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

According to yTrade data, the Uzbekistan HS Code 1101 Export is dominated by standard wheat flour, which represents over 92% of the export value and 95% of the weight shipped throughout 2025. The remaining sub-codes consist of minor categories with slightly higher unit prices, but their combined share is under 8% of the total. This market is highly concentrated, with the bulk of exports flowing through a single, low-price category.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

Unit prices range from $0.15 to $0.26 per kg, indicating that the market is primarily commodity-driven, with price sensitivity outweighing quality differentiation. This HS Code 1101 breakdown reveals that Uzbekistan's wheat flour exports focus on high-volume, low-margin shipments, typical of a bulk commodity trade structure. Strategic shifts would require moving into higher-value segments to capture better margins.

Table: Uzbekistan HS Code 1101) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 1101 Breakdown

Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

Uzbekistan's Wheat Flour export destinations show extreme concentration, with Afghanistan accounting for 99.88% of total value from January to November 2025. This near-total dependence on a single market creates significant exposure to demand shocks or political changes in Afghanistan. The remaining trade partners collectively represent just 0.12% of export value, offering minimal diversification for Uzbekistan's wheat flour exports.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

The nearly identical value and weight ratios (99.88% vs 99.92%) indicate Afghanistan purchases wheat flour as a pure commodity, prioritizing bulk volume over premium specifications. This pattern suggests price-sensitive procurement for basic consumption needs or humanitarian aid programs rather than quality-differentiated demand. Uzbekistan's trade partners for Wheat Flour thus represent a volume-scale market where competitive pricing determines market access, not margin potential through premium products.

Table: Uzbekistan Wheat Flour (HS Code 1101) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Uzbekistan Wheat Flour (HS Code 1101) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, the Uzbekistan Wheat Flour export market from January to November 2025 is anchored by high-volume repeaters, who represent over 80% of the value share. This dominance points to a stable, contract-based supply chain, with key accounts like SULTON ASIA LTD forming the core of transactions. The market structure for Uzbekistan Wheat Flour buyers is thus characterized by deep loyalty and consistent order patterns.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The HS Code 1101 buyer trends reveal that these high-volume repeaters engage in regular, large purchases, indicating established long-term relationships. However, the 80% value concentration poses a significant risk if any key account shifts demand. With Uzbekistan implementing export duties from July 2025 [Gazeta.uz] and wheat production forecasts indicating contraction (USDA), sellers should prioritize securing multi-year contracts with these buyers to mitigate cost volatility and ensure supply stability.

Table: Uzbekistan Wheat Flour (HS Code 1101) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Buyers list

Action Plan for Wheat Flour Market Operation and Expansion

• Diversify buyers immediately: Afghanistan’s 99.88% share makes Uzbekistan’s wheat flour exports vulnerable to political or economic disruptions in a single market.
• Lock in multi-year contracts: With high-volume repeaters driving 80% of trade, secure long-term agreements to offset export duty impacts and stabilize revenue.
• Optimize logistics costs: Bulk commodity pricing leaves minimal margin room—reduce transport and handling expenses to maintain competitiveness post-duty.
• Monitor Afghan policy shifts: Any changes in Afghanistan’s import regulations or humanitarian aid programs could abruptly alter demand for Uzbekistan’s exports.
• Explore premium product testing: While 92% of trade is standard flour, the remaining 8% commands higher unit prices—test niche markets for value-added blends.

Take Action Now —— Explore Uzbekistan Wheat Flour HS Code 1101 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Export in 2025?

The July 2025 export surge was driven by traders front-loading shipments ahead of a 30% export duty, followed by a sustained decline as the policy made exports less competitive.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Uzbekistan Wheat Flour (HS Code 1101) in 2025?

Afghanistan dominates, accounting for 99.88% of export value, with minimal diversification to other markets.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Uzbekistan Wheat Flour Export in 2025?

Price differences are minimal, as 92% of exports are standard wheat flour, a low-margin commodity traded at $0.15–$0.26/kg.

Q4. What should exporters in Uzbekistan focus on in the current Wheat Flour export market?

Exporters should secure multi-year contracts with high-volume repeaters (80% of value) and explore premium segments to reduce reliance on bulk commodity pricing.

Q5. What does this Uzbekistan Wheat Flour export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers, primarily Afghanistan, benefit from stable bulk supply but face risks if Uzbekistan’s export policies or domestic production shift.

Q6. How is Wheat Flour typically used in this trade flow?

It serves as a basic commodity, likely for consumption or humanitarian aid, given Afghanistan’s price-sensitive, high-volume purchases.