2025 Uzbekistan Grapes (HS 080610) Export: Wild Swings

Key Takeaways

Grapes, classified under HS Code 080610, exhibited extreme volatility from January to November 2025.

• Market Pulse: Export values swung wildly, peaking at $70.62 million in September before collapsing 99.2% by November, driven by seasonal harvest cycles.
• Structural Shift: Uzbekistan Grapes Export reliance on Russia (81.96% of value) creates high market risk, with minimal diversification to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
• Product Logic: HS Code 080610 trade data confirms a bulk-commodity market, with 90%+ volume concentrated in undifferentiated fresh grapes (0.70–1.09 USD/kg).

This overview covers the period from January to November 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan Grapes (HS Code 080610) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The Uzbekistan Grapes Export trend from January to November 2025 displayed extreme volatility in total export value, beginning with a robust $4.19 million in January before a steep descent to a mere $17.93 thousand by May. A dramatic reversal followed, with values surging over 3,900-fold to peak at $70.62 million in September, only to collapse by 99.2% to $565.16 thousand in November, highlighting a highly cyclical trade pattern dominated by mid-year expansion.

Drivers & Industry Context

This volatility is largely attributable to seasonal harvest cycles, with the explosive growth from June to September aligning with Uzbekistan's primary grape harvesting and export window from late summer through early fall. The sharp contraction post-September reflects the natural conclusion of the harvest season, reducing available supply for exports, while the consistent value derived from HS Code 080610 during peak months underscores the commodity's alignment with global demand spikes in Q3.

Table: Uzbekistan Grapes Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Uzbekistan HS Code 080610 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

HS Code 0806101001 dominates Uzbekistan's grape exports, capturing over 90% of both value and volume shares in 2025. According to yTrade data, this sub-code for fresh grapes represents the bulk of Uzbekistan HS Code 080610 Export activity. The remaining sub-codes, with minimal shares under 5%, consist of alternative grape types or grades, indicating a highly concentrated market structure.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

Unit prices cluster tightly between 0.70 and 1.09 USD/kg, with the top code at 1.06 USD/kg, confirming a commodity-driven market where price sensitivity outweighs quality differentiation. This HS Code 080610 breakdown reveals a trade structure centered on bulk, undifferentiated produce, with no significant value-add stages. Exporters should focus on cost efficiency and volume to compete effectively in this price-competitive environment.

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Uzbekistan Grapes Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

From January to November 2025, Uzbekistan's Grapes export destinations are overwhelmingly dominated by Russia, which accounts for 81.96% of the total export value. This extreme concentration heightens market risk, as any disruption in Russian demand could severely impact Uzbekistan's export economy. While Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan hold smaller shares, their combined value is less than 15%, underscoring a fragile dependency on a single partner.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

Russia's trade patterns reveal a slight premium inclination, with its value ratio (81.96%) exceeding its weight ratio (75.96%), pointing to quality-conscious demand for higher-value Grapes. The frequency ratio of 65.02% indicates consistent, large-scale shipments rather than fragmented retail flows, typical of bulk premium markets. This behavior solidifies Russia's role as a margin-focused partner, offering Uzbekistan better profit potential over mere volume scale.

Table: Uzbekistan Grapes (HS Code 080610) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

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Uzbekistan Grapes Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, Uzbekistan Grapes buyers are heavily concentrated in high-volume repeat customers, who represent 92.32% of the total value share. This dominance points to a market built on stable, contract-based supply chains, typically involving large-scale distributors or processors. The high frequency and value underscore a reliance on consistent, loyal partnerships rather than sporadic transactions.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The purchasing patterns reveal that key accounts drive most sales, necessitating a strategy focused on relationship retention and contract stability. With new export duties set to take effect in July 2025 [LEXCELL], it's critical to secure long-term agreements early to mitigate cost increases. Tracking HS Code 080610 buyer trends will aid in anticipating any market adjustments and maintaining competitive pricing.

Table: Uzbekistan Grapes (HS Code 080610) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

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Action Plan for Grapes Market Operation and Expansion

• Lock in contracts early: Secure long-term agreements before July 2025 export duty hikes to stabilize pricing amid volatile demand.
• Diversify buyers: Reduce dependence on Russia by targeting distributors in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, which offer smaller but growing shares.
• Optimize logistics: Cut transport and handling costs for bulk shipments to maintain competitiveness in a price-sensitive market.
• Monitor harvest cycles: Align sales strategies with Uzbekistan’s June–September peak season to capitalize on demand surges.
• Track Russian policy shifts: Anticipate disruptions by monitoring trade regulations and economic conditions in the dominant market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Uzbekistan Grapes Export in 2025?

The extreme volatility in Uzbekistan's grape exports is driven by seasonal harvest cycles, with a mid-year surge (June-September) aligning with peak harvesting, followed by a sharp decline post-harvest.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Uzbekistan Grapes (HS Code 080610) in 2025?

Russia dominates with 81.96% of export value, while Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan hold minor shares (under 15% combined).

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Uzbekistan Grapes Export in 2025?

Prices cluster tightly (0.70–1.09 USD/kg) due to the bulk commodity nature of HS Code 0806101001, which accounts for 90% of exports, leaving minimal room for quality-based differentiation.

Q4. What should exporters in Uzbekistan focus on in the current Grapes export market?

Exporters must prioritize cost efficiency, volume scaling, and securing long-term contracts with high-volume buyers (92.32% of value) to mitigate risks from Russia’s market dominance and new export duties.

Q5. What does this Uzbekistan Grapes export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers, especially in Russia, benefit from consistent bulk shipments of undifferentiated grapes but face supply risks due to Uzbekistan’s heavy reliance on seasonal harvests.

Q6. How is Grapes typically used in this trade flow?

Fresh grapes (HS Code 0806101001) are exported primarily as bulk, undifferentiated produce, targeting large-scale distributors or processors in price-sensitive markets.