2025 Philippines Coconut Oil Export: Volume Surge, Margin Drop

Philippines Coconut Oil Export Key Takeaways

Coconut Oil, classified under HS Code 151311, surged in volume but saw margin compression from January to November 2025.

• Market Pulse (Trend): Exports spiked 35% in volume (77.6M kg) but unit prices dropped 9% as sellers prioritized market share over margins—a tactical bet validated by the US tariff exemption.
• Structural Pivot (Geography/Company): The Philippines Coconut Oil Export flow is dangerously concentrated: 87% of value comes from just 23 buyers, while the Netherlands alone commands 57% of shipments.
• Grade Analysis (HS Code): HS Code 151311 trade data reveals a premium crude market (up to $5.64/kg), dominated by sub-code 15131190 (53% of value), signaling high-grade demand for further processing.

This overview covers the period from January to November 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Expert Note: A High-Stakes Game of Contracts and Tariffs

Expert Commentary: The Philippines is playing a volume-first strategy, betting on policy wins like the US tariff exemption to offset thinning margins. But with 87% of revenue tied to 23 buyers and 57% of shipments to one country, this isn’t a market—it’s a hostage situation.

Strategic Action Plan

• Lock in contracts now: The US tariff exemption will tighten supply; secure multi-year deals with Key Accounts before competitors react.
• Diversify geographies immediately: Reduce reliance on the Netherlands (56.8% share) by targeting secondary EU hubs like Germany or France to mitigate monopsony risk.
• Audit sub-code mix: Ensure 15131190 (premium crude) remains your anchor; its $5.64/kg ceiling is the only buffer against commoditization.
• Monitor Indonesian retaliation: Indonesia historically overshadows Philippine volume; expect price wars if they flood the US market post-tariff shift.
• Hedge logistics costs: Q1 2026 port bottlenecks are inevitable with current volume growth—pre-book shipping capacity or face delays.

Philippine Coconut Oil Exports Signal Structural Shift Amid US Trade Policy Shift

Volatile Growth Precedes Policy Catalyst

• The Philippines Coconut Oil Export trend from January to November 2025 shows total value climbing 27% to $187.7M, while volume rose 35% to 77.6M kg, despite high volatility including a 107% volume surge in November. This reflects aggressive inventory clearing and shipment front-running ahead of anticipated US demand.
• The extreme November volume spike, alongside a 9% drop in unit value, indicates exporters prioritized market share over margins, a tactical move that now appears prescient given the subsequent US tariff exemption.

Policy Validation and Competitive Pressures

• The November 2025 US Executive Order exempting Philippine coconut products from tariffs [DA.gov.ph] validates the export surge, explaining the strategic stockpiling and logistics mobilization evident in the data. The hs code 151311 value volatility was a direct bet on this policy outcome.
• Actionable Insights:
• Hedge against Q1 2026 logistics bottlenecks as Philippine ports strain under continued volume growth.
• Monitor Indonesian export data for competitive retaliation; Indonesia historically overshadows Philippine volume [KumarMetal].
• Secure contracts now; US organic demand (3,877 Philippine shipments [Volza]) will tighten supply.

Table: Philippines Coconut Oil Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Crude Coconut Oil Exports Are a High-Value, Top-Heavy Operation

Dominated by a Single High-Value Sub-Code

• Insight-First Summary: Sub-code 15131190 is the dominant force, accounting for over half (52.9%) of the total export value for this period.
• Citation: According to yTrade data, the market structure for Philippine coconut oil exports is extremely top-heavy, not fragmented.
• Analysis: This concentration indicates a supply chain optimized for moving large volumes of a specific, high-value product. The entire export flow for HS Code 151311 is effectively controlled by two sub-codes, with the top one commanding the majority of revenue.

Premium Crude Grades Command Strategic Pricing

• Value Chain Verdict: With unit prices ranging from $2.50 to $5.64 per kg, this is a specialized market, not a bulk commodity play.
• Strategic Insight: The HS Code 151311 breakdown shows the Philippines is exporting minimally processed, high-grade crude oil. They are not trading refined consumer products but the premium raw material for them.
• Information Increment: The high unit price confirms this flow is destined for buyers who require specific quality crude for further processing into premium goods, not for industrial or low-margin uses.

Check Detailed HS Code 151311 Breakdown

Philippines Coconut Oil Exports Face High Concentration Risk in European Markets

How Geographically Stable Is This Export Flow?

• Netherlands dominates Philippines coconut oil exports with 56.82% value share and 59.21% weight share, creating a high-risk monopsony.
• No self-export patterns exist, confirming all flows represent genuine foreign demand rather than internal logistics adjustments.
• The top three partners (Netherlands, Italy, United States) collectively control 81.7% of export value, indicating severe market concentration.

Are Buyers Seeking Premium Quality or Bulk Commodities?

• Netherlands and Italy demonstrate premium demand profiles, with value shares closely tracking weight shares, suggesting quality-conscious procurement.
• United States and Malaysia show commodity characteristics, with 27.53% and 27.22% quantity shares respectively outweighing their value contributions.
• The export mix favors volume scale over margin potential, with bulk shipments to processing hubs dominating the trade flow.

Table: Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 151311) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 151311) Complete Destination Countries Profile

The Philippines Coconut Oil Market Is Dominated by Strategic Contract Partners

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, the Philippines Coconut Oil buyers are primarily defined by Key Accounts. This segment represents just 23 companies but controls 87.27% of the export value, indicating a hyper-concentrated market built on long-term supply agreements. The market structure is stable but carries significant reliance on a handful of strategic partners.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The HS Code 151311 buyer trends reveal a market where relationship depth and contract security outweigh spot price fluctuations. Sellers should prioritize locking in multi-year agreements with Key Accounts, as these partners drive nearly all volume. The recent US tariff exemption for Philippine coconut oil [DA Gov PH] reinforces the strategic value of these contracts, but the 87% concentration in one segment is a critical risk—diversify or be exposed to client attrition.

Table: Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 151311) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Philippines Coconut Oil Buyers list

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Philippines Coconut Oil Export in 2025?

The 27% value surge and 35% volume growth in 2025 reflect strategic stockpiling and shipment front-running ahead of the US tariff exemption, validated by a 107% November volume spike. Exporters prioritized market share over margins, anticipating policy shifts.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 151311) in 2025?

The Netherlands dominates with 56.82% value share, followed by Italy and the United States, collectively controlling 81.7% of export value. This indicates severe geographic concentration.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Philippines Coconut Oil Export in 2025?

Premium crude grades (e.g., sub-code 15131190) command $2.50–$5.64/kg for quality-conscious buyers like the Netherlands, while bulk shipments to the US and Malaysia reflect commodity pricing.

Q4. What should exporters in Philippines focus on in the current Coconut Oil export market?

Prioritize multi-year contracts with Key Accounts (23 buyers drive 87.27% of value) and diversify away from the Netherlands’ 56.8% monopsony to mitigate concentration risk.

Q5. What does this Philippines Coconut Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers in the Netherlands and Italy secure premium crude for further processing, while US and Malaysian importers benefit from bulk commodity flows. Dependency on Philippine supply requires contract stability.

Q6. How is Coconut Oil typically used in this trade flow?

The Philippines exports minimally processed, high-grade crude oil (HS 151311) as raw material for premium consumer goods, not refined end-products or industrial commodities.