2025 Philippines Coconut Oil Export: Market Shift

Philippines Coconut Oil Export Key Takeaways

Coconut Oil, classified under HS Code 151319, experienced severe supply-driven volatility from January to November 2025.

• Market Pulse (Trend): Exports collapsed mid-year, with value dropping 60% and weight falling 52% from May to October, before a partial November recovery. This reflects domestic policy constraints, not demand erosion.
• Structural Pivot (Geography/Company): The Philippines Coconut Oil Export market is split—premium demand from the US and Europe vs. bulk commodity buying in Asia (China, South Korea). Buyer concentration (top 2 clusters control 98% of value) creates acute contract risk.
• Grade Analysis (HS Code): HS Code 151319 trade data confirms a commoditized game—91% of volume is industrial-grade (sub-code 15131990) at $3.48/kg, with near-zero value-add specialization.

This overview covers the period from January to November 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Expert Note: Manila’s Domestic Retention Policy Will Squeeze Global Buyers

Expert Commentary: The Philippines is quietly pivoting from exporter to domestic stockpiler. The mid-year export crash wasn’t a blip—it was a stress test for buyers reliant on cheap bulk shipments. Expect tighter quotas in 2026 as Manila prioritizes local food and biofuel security over foreign contracts.

Strategic Action Plan

• Diversify sourcing now: Shift partial volumes to Indonesia or Vietnam; Philippine supply will remain erratic under retention policies.
• Lock in forward contracts: The November rebound suggests allocations are tightening. Secure pricing before PCA announces new quotas.
• Audit buyer concentration: If your top 2 clients control >90% of revenue, you’re one contract renegotiation away from disaster.
• Test spot markets: Sri Lanka’s fragmented, high-frequency demand offers a hedge against bulk buyer dependence.
• Ignore premium fantasies: The US pays marginally more ($3.12/kg), but 91% of Philippine output is industrial-grade. Don’t overinvest in consumer-grade packaging.

Philippine Coconut Oil Exports Reveal Supply-Side Volatility and Policy Pressure

Volatility Defines 2025 Export Performance

• The "What" with Forensic Depth: Philippine coconut oil exports under HS code 151319 experienced severe volatility throughout 2025. Total value fell 42% from January to November, while export weight declined 28%. The most pronounced contraction occurred from May to October, where value dropped 60% and weight fell 52%, before a partial November recovery.
• The Expert Verdict: This erosion in both value and volume indicates a supply-constrained market, not softening demand. The Philippines' coconut oil export trend reflects tightening domestic availability and policy interventions aimed at prioritizing local needs over international contracts.
• SEO Keyword: The Philippines Coconut Oil Export trend under HS code 151319 value highlights underlying supply stresses.

Policy Shifts Explain the Data Trajectory

• The "Why" & Hindsight: The mid-year collapse in export volumes aligns precisely with the Philippine Coconut Authority's (PCA) reported moves toward a "percent retention" policy. This effectively reserved production for domestic food and biofuel use, curtailing exportable surplus. The data's steep decline from May onward anticipated the supply tightness and policy prioritization that PCA later confirmed.
• Strategic Advisory (Bullet Points):
• Secure forward contracts with Philippine suppliers now; renewed export growth in November suggests allocations may tighten again.
• Diversify sourcing to include Indonesia and Vietnam; Manila's policy pivot toward domestic retention is structural.
• Monitor PCA announcements for changes to the retention quota; any increase will immediately constrain export volumes.

Table: Philippines Coconut Oil Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

Get Philippines Coconut Oil Data Latest Updates

Philippine Coconut Oil Exports Are a Bulk Commodity Game Dominated by Industrial-Grade Product

Market Concentration Under a Single Sub-Code

• Insight-First Summary: Sub-code 15131990 is the dominant force, controlling over 91% of the volume and 64% of the total export value.
• Citation: According to yTrade data, this single sub-category defines the entire export structure for Philippine coconut oil from January through September 2025.
• Analysis: The extreme concentration indicates a top-heavy, commoditized supply chain where a single product type—industrial refined oil—drives the market. Fragmentation is virtually non-existent; this is a volume play, not a diversified value chain.

Low Unit Prices Confirm Bulk Commodity Characteristics

• Value Chain Verdict: With an average unit price of $3.48/kg for the dominant flow, this is unequivocally a commodity market.
• Strategic Insight: The HS Code 151319 breakdown shows almost no value-add specialization; the Philippines is exporting raw bulk refined oil, not higher-margin consumer or technical grades.
• Information Increment: The high volume and low price point confirm this flow serves large-scale industrial buyers like food processors and biofuel blenders, not premium retail or niche segments.

Check Detailed HS Code 151319 Breakdown

Philippines Coconut Oil Exports Show US Premium Demand and Asian Commodity Bulk Buying

Is the Philippines Overly Dependent on a Single Market for Coconut Oil?

• The United States is the dominant buyer of Philippine coconut oil, accounting for 36.8% of export value but only 38.5% of weight, indicating a stable, diversified market without monopsony risk.
• No self-export patterns exist; all flows represent genuine foreign demand rather than internal logistics or returns.
• China and South Korea emerge as significant volume players, ensuring the Philippines is not reliant on one outlet.

Are Buyers Seeking Premium Quality or Cheap Bulk Shipments?

• The US, Malaysia, and Netherlands exhibit premium signals, with value shares exceeding weight shares, reflecting demand for high-margin, quality-conscious consumption at ~$3.12/kg.
• South Korea represents commodity-driven buying, with a 58.9% quantity share dwarfing its 8.4% value share, indicating price-sensitive industrial stockpiling.
• Sri Lanka’s high frequency (7.8%) against low weight (1.4%) suggests agile, fragmented demand, likely for retail or JIT replenishment.

Table: Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 151319) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 151319) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Philippines Coconut Oil Buyers: A Market Dominated by Strategic Contract Partners

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, the Philippines Coconut Oil buyers are primarily defined by Key Accounts, who drive 92.47% of total export value despite accounting for only 26.40% of volume. This reflects a mature, contract-based supply chain where a few large buyers secure bulk shipments under long-term agreements. The market structure is highly concentrated, with the top two clusters (Key Accounts and Project-based Whales) controlling 98.27% of value.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The HS Code 151319 buyer trends reveal extreme reliance on strategic partners, creating significant concentration risk for Philippine exporters. Sellers must diversify their client base to mitigate exposure to contract renegotiations or demand shifts from major players like SHANGHAI PAN CHEN. The Philippine Coconut Authority's exploration of a "percent retention" policy [Philippine Coconut Authority forecasts continued rise in coconut oil...] signals potential future supply constraints, making client diversification even more urgent. Focus on acquiring transactional spot traders and testing buyers through digital channels to build a more resilient sales portfolio.

Table: Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 151319) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Philippines Coconut Oil Buyers list

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Philippines Coconut Oil Export in 2025?

The severe volatility in 2025, with a 42% drop in value and 28% in weight, stems from domestic supply constraints and policy shifts like the "percent retention" policy prioritizing local needs over exports.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 151319) in 2025?

The US dominates with 36.8% of export value, followed by China and South Korea as key volume buyers, ensuring diversified demand.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Philippines Coconut Oil Export in 2025?

The US, Malaysia, and Netherlands pay premium prices (~$3.12/kg) for quality-conscious demand, while South Korea’s bulk industrial buying drives lower unit prices.

Q4. What should exporters in Philippines focus on in the current Coconut Oil export market?

Exporters must diversify buyers beyond strategic long-term contracts, targeting transactional spot traders to mitigate concentration risks amid tightening supply.

Q5. What does this Philippines Coconut Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers face supply volatility due to Philippine policy shifts but can leverage premium demand (US) or bulk pricing (South Korea) based on their segment needs.

Q6. How is Coconut Oil typically used in this trade flow?

Over 91% of exports are industrial-grade refined oil (HS 15131990), serving large-scale food processors and biofuel blenders as a bulk commodity.