2025 Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 1513) Export: Volume Swings

Philippines Coconut Oil Export Key Takeaways

Coconut Oil, classified under HS Code 1513, saw volatile volumes but resilient demand from January to November 2025.

• Market Pulse (Trend): Shipments swung wildly—May dropped 36%, November surged 87%—yet value held at $2.87B, proving buyers prioritized contractual security over spot-market fluctuations.
• Structural Pivot (Geography/Company): Philippines Coconut Oil Export flows are dominated by Key Accounts (88% of value), with the Netherlands (34.7%) and U.S. (22%) as primary hubs. No monopsony risk, but reliance on bulk buyers leaves margins thin.
• Grade Analysis (HS Code): HS Code 1513 trade data confirms a commodity market—80% of exports are crude or lightly refined oil, with unit prices under $3.50/kg. Premium segments are virtually absent.

This overview covers the period from January to November 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Expert Note: A Market Running on Contracts, Not Innovation

Expert Commentary: The Philippines’ coconut oil trade is a volume game, not a value play. Buyers aren’t chasing quality—they’re locking in bulk supply to hedge against volatility. The U.S. tariff exemption kept the engine running, but without diversification into premium grades, this is a race to the bottom on price.

Strategic Action Plan

• Lock down Key Accounts: With 88% of export value tied to recurring buyers, prioritize contract renewals over spot deals. Losing one whale could crater revenue.
• Hedge Q2 seasonality: May-June volumes historically drop—pre-negotiate forward contracts or build inventory to avoid margin erosion.
• Exploit U.S. tariff advantage: The 19% duty exemption is a lifeline. Push volume here before policy shifts, but don’t ignore premium niches in Japan and China.
• Diversify beyond crude: 70% of exports are low-margin bulk oil. Pilot refined products for markets like China, where value share outpaces weight.
• Monitor Dutch stockpiling: The Netherlands’ volume-heavy buys signal industrial hoarding. If global prices dip, they’ll squeeze suppliers harder.

Philippine Coconut Oil Exports Show Volatility Amid Strategic Stockpiling and Policy Shifts

Erratic Volumes Mask Underlying Strength

Philippines coconut oil export trend through November 2025 saw export value reach $2.87 billion, though monthly weight shipments fluctuated violently—plummeting 36% in May before an 87% November surge. This divergence between value resilience and volatile tonnage indicates buyers prioritized securing contractual volumes despite price swings, reflecting sustained demand for HS Code 1513 value. The erosion in shipment consistency points to supply chain disruptions, likely from weather or logistics, rather than weakening demand.

Policy Exemption Validates Late-Year Surge

The November volume spike (112M kg, +87% MoM) aligns perfectly with the U.S. tariff exemption confirmed in September [Manila Bulletin], which incentivized accelerated shipments before year-end. The Philippines supplied nearly half of U.S. HS 1513 imports [DLSU Report], making this exemption critical for maintaining market share.

• Hedge Q2 seasonal tightness: May-June volumes historically drop—plan inventory or forward contracts.
• Monitor U.S. trade policy: Any tariff revision could disrupt 2026 flows.
• Diversify beyond crude oil: 70% of exports are low-margin crude; shift to refined products.

Table: Philippines Coconut Oil Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Crude and Refined Bulk Dominate Philippine Coconut Oil Exports

Top-Heavy Market Driven by Industrial-Grade Volume

According to yTrade data, the market is overwhelmingly concentrated in two categories: crude coconut oil (HS 15131190 and 15131190000) and non-crude, refined oil (HS 15131990), which collectively represent over 80% of the total export value. This extreme concentration indicates a top-heavy, bulk-oriented supply chain where a handful of large-volume sub-codes dictate trade flows. The Philippines’ export profile for coconut oil is not fragmented; it is dominated by high-volume, low-complexity product forms.

Commodity Logic Governs Trade with Minimal Value-Add

With unit prices consistently below $3.50/kg across major sub-codes, this is unequivocally a commodity market driven by volume, not specialization. The breakdown shows almost no presence of high-value, technically refined grades—nearly all trade is in crude or lightly processed bulk oil destined for industrial use. The absence of significant premium segments means margins are thin and competition is based on volume and cost efficiency, not product differentiation.

Table: Philippines HS Code 1513) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 1513 Breakdown

Philippines Coconut Oil Exports: Diversified Global Footprint with Varied Buyer Economics

Geographic Concentration: Is the Export Market Monopolized by a Single Buyer?

• Philippine Coconut Oil exports from January to November 2025 are distributed across multiple partners, led by the Netherlands (34.72% value share), United States (22.01%), and Malaysia (9.70%). No destination exceeds 50% value concentration, confirming a stable, low-risk market without monopsony threats. All flows are directed to external countries, with no self-export or re-importation anomalies detected.

Demand Archetype: Are Buyers Seeking Premium Quality or Bulk Commodities?

• Buyer personas split into distinct segments: China, Japan, and Indonesia show value shares outperforming weight shares (e.g., China: 4.60% value vs. 4.00% weight), indicating premium demand with estimated unit prices around 3.10 USD/kg for the U.S. The Netherlands and Italy prioritize volume with weight shares exceeding value shares, signaling industrial stockpiling. High-frequency partners like the United States (27.46% frequency vs. 21.00% weight) reveal agile, retail-driven logistics. This balance offers both margin upside from quality-conscious markets and volume security from bulk processors.

Table: Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 1513) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 1513) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Philippine Coconut Oil Buyers Are Dominated by Key Accounts Driving Export Growth

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

• Insight-First Summary: According to yTrade data, the Philippines Coconut Oil buyers are primarily defined by Key Accounts (High Value/High Frequency buyers), who represent 88.15% of the export value.
• Structure Verdict: The market operates as a stable, high-volume supply chain anchored by a few major players. Just two clusters—Key Accounts and Project-based Whales—account for over 97% of total export value, indicating extreme supplier dependence and contract-driven trade.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

• The "So What": Philippine coconut oil exports are not a spot market; they are a relationship-heavy business dominated by large-scale buyers with recurring contracts. Sellers must prioritize key account management and long-term supply agreements over transactional outreach.
• Strategic Advice: With such high concentration, diversifying buyers is critical to mitigate risk. Meanwhile, capitalize on favorable US tariff conditions—Philippine coconut oil is exempt from a 19% duty [Manila Bulletin]—to retain competitiveness in a core market that absorbs 25-30% of exports.
• News Integration: Export revenue is projected to grow to $3 billion in 2026 [Manila Standard], reinforcing the strategic importance of locking in key accounts now.

Table: Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 1513) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Philippines Coconut Oil Buyers list

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Philippines Coconut Oil Export in 2025?

The 2025 export trend shows volatile shipment volumes due to supply chain disruptions, but sustained demand is evident as buyers prioritize contractual volumes. A late-year surge was driven by the U.S. tariff exemption, incentivizing accelerated shipments.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Philippines Coconut Oil (HS Code 1513) in 2025?

The top destinations are the Netherlands (34.72% value share), the United States (22.01%), and Malaysia (9.70%), reflecting a diversified export footprint without overreliance on any single market.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Philippines Coconut Oil Export in 2025?

Price differences stem from demand archetypes: markets like China and Japan pay premiums for higher-quality oil, while the Netherlands and Italy prioritize bulk industrial-grade purchases at lower unit prices.

Q4. What should exporters in Philippines focus on in the current Coconut Oil export market?

Exporters must prioritize key account management for large buyers (88.15% of export value) and diversify clients to mitigate risk. Shifting toward refined products could improve margins, as 70% of exports are low-value crude oil.

Q5. What does this Philippines Coconut Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers benefit from stable, high-volume supply chains but face competition for contracts. The U.S. enjoys tariff-free access, while premium markets like China can secure higher-grade oil at slightly elevated prices.

Q6. How is Coconut Oil typically used in this trade flow?

Most exports are crude or lightly refined bulk oil for industrial applications, with minimal high-value specialized grades. The commodity-driven trade emphasizes volume over product differentiation.