Indonesia Petroleum Gas HS2711 Export Data 2025 Q3 Overview

Indonesia Petroleum Gas (HS 2711) 2025 Q3 Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia’s Petroleum Gas Export (HS Code 2711) in 2025 Q3 shows heavy reliance on regional buyers, with Japan, Singapore, and China Mainland absorbing over 80% of volume, though Japan’s lower value share suggests bulk pricing for lower-grade LNG. The market remains concentrated, heightening supply chain risks, especially as Indonesia prepares for potential LNG imports later in 2025, which may tighten exports. This analysis, covering 2025 Q3, is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Petroleum Gas (HS 2711) 2025 Q3 Export Background

Indonesia’s Petroleum Gas (HS Code 2711: Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons) fuels industries like power generation and manufacturing, with steady global demand as a cleaner energy alternative. In Q3 2025, Indonesia’s export policies shifted under GR 8/2025, requiring oil and gas exporters to retain 30% of proceeds locally for three months [Orrick]. Despite domestic LNG shortages pushing imports, Indonesia remains a key exporter, with Q3 GDP growth at 5.04% partly driven by energy trade [Seala AI, MUC].

Indonesia Petroleum Gas (HS 2711) 2025 Q3 Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia's Petroleum Gas exports under HS Code 2711 experienced a sharp unit price decline in Q3 2025, dropping to 0.36 USD/kg in September—a 29% decrease from August—amid a volume surge to 1.70 billion kg, the highest monthly volume in 2025.

Price and Volume Dynamics

Quarter-over-quarter, Q3 average unit price fell to 0.46 USD/kg from Q2's 0.52 USD/kg, while export volume rose 12% to 4.08 billion kg, indicating increased supply pressure. This aligns with typical industry cycles where rising domestic demand—evident in Indonesia's shift from net exporter to potential importer—often prompts exporters to offload volumes before policy changes, leading to price depreciation. The September spike in volume and price crash suggests a strategic dump or contract fulfillment ahead of anticipated import shifts.

External Context and Outlook

The trend is directly influenced by Indonesia's exploration of LNG imports starting Q3 or Q4 2025 to address domestic shortages [SP Global], coupled with oil and gas export contractions noted in Q3 GDP reports (Capital Economics). New export proceeds rules requiring partial retention of earnings may have accelerated export decisions. Outlook: Volatility may persist as Indonesia balances domestic supply security with export strategies, potentially stabilizing prices once import mechanisms are operational.

Indonesia Petroleum Gas (HS 2711) 2025 Q3 Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

The Indonesia Petroleum Gas Export 2025 Q3 under HS Code 2711 is dominated by liquefied natural gas, with sub-code 27111100 making up 73% of the value and 76% of the weight at a unit price of $0.43 per kilogram. An extreme price anomaly exists in sub-code 27112900, which has a unit price of $3.33 per kilogram but negligible volume, and it is isolated from the main analysis pool.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The non-anomalous sub-codes group into two categories: other liquefied gases like ethylene and propylene, and gaseous state natural gas. The consistent low unit prices, around $0.50 per kilogram, indicate a trade in fungible bulk commodities, closely linked to global energy indices rather than differentiated products.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

Market players face limited pricing power due to the commodity nature, with prices influenced by external market forces. News suggests Indonesia is exploring LNG imports [SP Global] and has new export rules (SP Global), which may shift focus towards domestic supply security and regulatory compliance in the future.

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Indonesia Petroleum Gas (HS 2711) 2025 Q3 Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

Indonesia Petroleum Gas Export 2025 Q3 under HS Code 2711 shows high concentration, with JAPAN dominating at 41.79% of total weight, but its value share is lower at 34.06%, indicating bulk pricing typical for commodities like LNG. This pattern suggests Indonesia exports lower-grade or high-volume gas to key buyers, with the top three countries—JAPAN, SINGAPORE, and CHINA MAINLAND—accounting for over 80% of weight, highlighting reliance on regional energy demand.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The top partners form two clusters: first, JAPAN, SINGAPORE, and CHINA MAINLAND, which take large volumes due to their high energy needs and proximity, reducing shipping costs. Second, SOUTH KOREA and CHINA TAIWAN handle smaller but steady amounts, likely for niche or backup supply. Minor players like PHILIPPINES and BANGLADESH show emerging demand, but their low shares reflect limited infrastructure or newer trade ties.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

Market players should note Indonesia's potential shift to LNG imports starting Q3 or Q4 2025 [S&P Global], which may squeeze export volumes and increase price volatility. Exporters must adapt to regulations requiring 30% proceeds retention for three months (S&P Global), affecting liquidity. Diversifying to other Asian markets or investing in storage could mitigate risks from Indonesia's domestic supply changes.

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Indonesia Petroleum Gas (HS 2711) 2025 Q3 Export: Buyer Cluster

Buyer Market Concentration and Dominance

In the Indonesia Petroleum Gas Export 2025 Q3 under HS Code 2711, the buyer market is highly concentrated, with one segment of buyers dominating by accounting for 84% of the total export value. This dominant group consists of buyers who make large, frequent purchases, such as major energy companies, and they drive the market with high volume and consistent demand. The overall market for this period is characterized by frequent, high-value transactions, reflecting the commodity nature of petroleum gas where bulk sales are common.

Strategic Buyer Clusters and Trade Role

The other three segments of buyers play varied roles. Buyers with high value but low frequency, like state-owned entities, contribute significantly to value with fewer, larger transactions, often for strategic reserves or large-scale projects. Buyers with low value but high frequency, such as local distributors or smaller industrial users, engage in regular but smaller purchases, supporting steady, lower-volume trade. Lastly, buyers with low value and low frequency, including occasional or spot buyers, have minimal impact, possibly representing niche or emergency demand.

Sales Strategy and Vulnerability

For exporters in Indonesia, the focus should be on maintaining relationships with the dominant high-value, frequent buyers to ensure stable revenue, while monitoring risks like demand shifts due to Indonesia's potential move towards LNG imports starting Q3 or Q4 2025 [S&P Global]. Opportunities exist in leveraging export policy exemptions, as oil and gas exports are only required to retain 30% of proceeds for three months under new regulations (S&P Global). The sales model should prioritize long-term contracts with key buyers to mitigate vulnerability from any export contractions noted in economic reports.

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Indonesia Petroleum Gas (HS 2711) 2025 Q3 Export: Action Plan for Petroleum Gas Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

The Indonesia Petroleum Gas Export 2025 Q3 under HS Code 2711 operates as a bulk commodity market. Prices are driven by global energy indices and grade uniformity, not product differentiation. Supply chain implications center on supply security and processing logistics, heightened by Indonesia's potential shift to LNG imports from Q3 2025. This change may squeeze export volumes and increase regulatory focus on domestic needs.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Petroleum Gas Market Execution

• Monitor Japan, Singapore, and China order patterns weekly to anticipate demand shifts and adjust shipment schedules, ensuring stable revenue from top buyers.
• Track HS Code 2711 sub-code transactions to spot emerging niche markets like high-price anomalies, unlocking premium pricing opportunities.
• Use buyer frequency data to renegotiate contract terms with high-value clients, securing long-term commitments against import policy risks.
• Analyze partner country storage capacities to identify backup demand sources, reducing vulnerability to Indonesia's domestic supply changes.
• Leverage export regulation exemptions on proceeds retention to optimize cash flow, maintaining liquidity despite policy constraints.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Petroleum Gas Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Petroleum Gas Export 2025 Q3?

The sharp 29% unit price drop in September 2025, alongside a volume surge to 1.70 billion kg, reflects exporters offloading supply ahead of Indonesia's potential LNG import shift starting Q3/Q4 2025. This aligns with industry cycles where domestic policy shifts trigger preemptive volume dumps.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Petroleum Gas Export 2025 Q3?

Japan (41.8% of weight), Singapore, and China Mainland dominate, collectively accounting for over 80% of export weight. These regional buyers drive demand due to proximity and high energy needs.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Petroleum Gas Export 2025 Q3 partner countries?

Price differences stem from product type: liquefied natural gas (sub-code 27111100) trades at $0.43/kg (73% of value), while the negligible-volume gaseous state (27112900) hits $3.33/kg. Bulk commodity pricing applies to most shipments.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Petroleum Gas export market?

Exporters must prioritize long-term contracts with dominant high-value buyers (84% of trade) to stabilize revenue, while diversifying to emerging markets like Philippines to mitigate reliance on Japan and China.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Petroleum Gas export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers in Japan and China benefit from stable bulk supply but face future volatility as Indonesia’s domestic LNG import plans may reduce export volumes. Niche buyers (e.g., South Korea) retain steady access to smaller shipments.

Q6. How is Petroleum Gas typically used in this trade flow?

Liquefied natural gas (76% of volume) fuels energy grids and industrial processes, while gaseous state products serve specialized applications. Bulk trades align with commodity-grade energy demand.

Q7. What is yTrade?

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