2025 Indonesia Crude Oil (HS 2709) Export: Extreme Volatility

Key Takeaways

Crude Oil, classified under HS Code 2709 (Petroleum crude oil and crude oil extracted from bituminous minerals:), exhibited extreme volatility from January to September 2025.

• Market Pulse: Volumes swung wildly, peaking at 464.97M kg in September after a 157.7% surge in February and a 46% crash in April, with unit prices dropping 42% in June and 39.8% in September.
• Structural Shift: Indonesia Crude Oil Export reliance on Thailand (79.96% of value) creates high geographic risk, offset by premium pricing (value share 11.46% above volume share).
• Product Logic: HS Code 2709 trade data reveals a two-tier market—76.65% of exports are higher-value crude ($0.54/kg) versus 23.35% at $0.32/kg, signaling grade-based buyer segmentation.

This overview covers the period from January to September 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Crude Oil (HS Code 2709) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The Indonesia Crude Oil Export trend across the first three quarters of 2025 was characterized by extreme volatility, beginning with a strong surge before entering a period of erratic swings in both volume and price. Exports opened the year at 128.64M kg in January, then exploded by 157.7% month-on-month to 331.51M kg in February. After a modest rise in March, volumes collapsed by nearly 46% in April and fell further in May. June witnessed another massive shipment of 408.91M kg, though unit prices cratered by over 42%. The final quarter opened with a sharp volume correction in July, followed by a recovery in August, before closing September at the period’s highest volume (464.97M kg) amid a 39.8% monthly price drop.

Drivers & Industry Context

This pronounced volatility in export volumes aligns with broader reports of "wild swings" for Indonesian crude petroleum (HS 2709), including a 262% surge followed by a 93% crash in 2025 [ytrade.com]. While Indonesia’s 2025 export policy reforms (Permendag 8/2025 and 9/2025) focused on mineral downstreaming and did not directly restrict petroleum, the unstable export patterns suggest responsive production adjustments to global price signals or logistical shifts. The overall hs code 2709 value remained substantial despite these fluctuations, reflecting its critical role in Indonesia’s energy export economy, though absent specific policy triggers, the volatility likely stemmed from commodity cycle timing and operational decisions.

Table: Indonesia Crude Oil Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

Get Indonesia Crude Oil Data Latest Updates

Indonesia HS Code 2709 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

According to yTrade data, Indonesia's HS Code 2709 export market for crude oil in the first three quarters of 2025 is dominated by sub-code 27090010, which accounts for 76.65 percent of the total export value and 74.79 percent of the volume. The secondary sub-code, 27090020, holds a 23.35 percent value share, while the remaining sub-codes are negligible, indicating a highly concentrated Indonesia HS Code 2709 Export structure focused on two main crude oil types.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

The unit price spread—$0.54 per kilogram for the dominant sub-code versus $0.32 per kilogram for the secondary one—points to quality or grade differentiation within this commodity market. This HS Code 2709 breakdown reveals a price-sensitive trade structure where lower-priced exports may reflect lighter or less refined crude, typical of bulk commodity markets with minimal value-add.

Table: Indonesia HS Code 2709) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 2709 Breakdown

Indonesia Crude Oil Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

Thailand dominates Indonesia's Crude Oil export destinations, capturing 79.96% of total value from January to September 2025. This extreme reliance on a single market creates significant exposure to any economic or political shifts in Thailand. Indonesia's export strategy for this commodity is therefore highly concentrated and vulnerable to supply chain disruptions with this key partner.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

Thailand's value share (79.96%) notably outpaces its weight share (68.50%), indicating a market that pays a premium for Indonesia's Crude Oil. This value-volume gap points to quality-conscious demand for higher-value specifications over pure bulk purchasing. For Indonesian exporters, this profile suggests a trade partner offering superior margin potential rather than just volume scale.

Table: Indonesia Crude Oil (HS Code 2709) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Indonesia Crude Oil (HS Code 2709) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Indonesia Crude Oil Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, the Indonesia Crude Oil buyers market is dominated by a core group of high-volume repeaters, accounting for 80.2% of total value. These key accounts, including major players like TIS Petroleum and ExxonMobil Asia Pacific, drive a stable, contract-based supply chain. This structure indicates a mature market where long-term relationships and consistent procurement cycles define the trade flow through the first three quarters of 2025.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The heavy reliance on a few loyal partners creates concentration risk, making account retention and cross-selling within this segment the priority. Sellers should focus on reinforcing contract terms and exploring additional volume commitments with existing clients, as spot or opportunistic buyers play a minor role. This approach aligns with the consistent HS Code 2709 buyer trends, where relational depth outweighs transactional outreach.

Table: Indonesia Crude Oil (HS Code 2709) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Indonesia Crude Oil Buyers list

Action Plan for Crude Oil Market Operation and Expansion

• Diversify buyer portfolios: Reduce dependence on Thailand by targeting secondary markets in Asia to mitigate geopolitical or economic disruptions.
• Lock in contract terms: Secure long-term agreements with core clients like TIS Petroleum and ExxonMobil to stabilize revenue amid volatile spot prices.
• Optimize logistics for bulk shipments: Lower per-unit costs for the 74.79% volume share of sub-code 27090010 to protect margins in price-sensitive segments.
• Brand premium-grade crude: Highlight the $0.54/kg sub-code (76.65% of value) to attract quality-focused buyers and justify price premiums.
• Monitor global oil benchmarks: Anticipate swings by aligning production with OPEC+ trends and storage capacity to capitalize on spikes like February’s 157.7% volume surge.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Crude Oil HS Code 2709 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Crude Oil Export in 2025?

Indonesia's Crude Oil exports in 2025 saw extreme volatility, with volumes surging 157.7% in February before collapsing by 46% in April. This erratic pattern aligns with global commodity cycles and operational adjustments rather than direct policy triggers.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Indonesia Crude Oil (HS Code 2709) in 2025?

Thailand dominates as Indonesia's top Crude Oil buyer, accounting for 79.96% of export value. No other destination holds significant market share, reflecting extreme geographic concentration.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Indonesia Crude Oil Export in 2025?

The price gap stems from product differentiation: sub-code 27090010 (76.65% of exports) trades at $0.54/kg, while 27090020 (23.35%) averages $0.32/kg, indicating grade or quality variations.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Crude Oil export market?

Exporters must prioritize retaining key accounts like TIS Petroleum and ExxonMobil Asia Pacific, which drive 80.2% of trade value, while mitigating risks from over-reliance on Thailand.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Crude Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Thailand's premium value share (79.96% vs. 68.50% volume) signals stable, quality-driven demand, offering Indonesian suppliers margin potential over bulk-scale opportunities.

Q6. How is Crude Oil typically used in this trade flow?

Crude Oil (HS 2709) serves as a foundational energy commodity, primarily refined into fuels or petrochemical feedstocks for industrial and consumer markets.