Indonesia Crude Petroleum HS270900 Export Data 2025 October Overview

Indonesia Crude Petroleum (HS 270900) 2025 October Export: Key Takeaways

Indonesia’s Crude Petroleum exports (HS Code 270900) in October 2025 show a monopolistic trade relationship, with 100% of shipments directed solely to Thailand, reflecting extreme geographic concentration and supply chain risk. The uniform unit price of 0.53 USD/kg confirms standardized bulk commodity trading, while the absence of buyer diversification heightens exposure to market or political shifts in Thailand. This analysis, covering October 2025, is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Crude Petroleum (HS 270900) 2025 October Export Background

Indonesia Crude Petroleum (HS Code 270900: oils from bituminous minerals, crude) fuels global industries like energy and transportation, maintaining steady demand. Recent policy shifts, including Indonesia's Permendag 8/2025 export regulations [Permitindo], aim to prioritize downstream processing, impacting October 2025 trade flows. As Southeast Asia's top producer, Indonesia's export strategy balances domestic refining needs with international market opportunities, shaping crude oil supply chains.

Indonesia Crude Petroleum (HS 270900) 2025 October Export: Trend Summary

Key Observations

Indonesia's Crude Petroleum exports under HS Code 270900 in October 2025 saw a dramatic collapse, with value plunging to 17.16 million USD and volume dropping to 32.56 million kg, far below the elevated levels seen in prior months.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The month-over-month comparison reveals a severe contraction, with October's value down 89% from September's 150.07 million USD, while volume fell 93% from 464.97 million kg. This sharp decline interrupts a generally stable export pattern observed through 2025, where values averaged around 130 million USD monthly from June to September. For crude petroleum, such volatility is atypical outside of major supply disruptions or policy shocks, as global oil trade usually follows steadier demand cycles tied to industrial activity and seasonal energy needs. The data suggests an abrupt external intervention rather than natural market fluctuations.

External Context and Outlook

The steep drop aligns with Indonesia's implementation of Permendag 8/2025 [Permitindo], which restricted mineral exports to boost domestic processing, likely affecting crude petroleum shipments. Broader macro factors, including global oil price swings and potential domestic production constraints, may have exacerbated the decline. Looking ahead, export recovery hinges on policy adjustments and stable international demand, but near-term volatility is expected to persist.

Indonesia Crude Petroleum (HS 270900) 2025 October Export: HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

Indonesia's Crude Petroleum export under HS Code 270900 in October 2025 is entirely concentrated in a single product: Oils; petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude, which accounts for 100% of the export value and weight. With a unit price of 0.53 USD per kilogram, this specialization underscores a focus on raw, unrefined petroleum without significant price variation or anomalies.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The structure consists solely of crude petroleum, indicating a trade in fungible bulk commodities where products are standardized and typically priced against global indices like Brent or WTI crude. There are no sub-codes for refined or higher-value variants, reinforcing that Indonesia's export under this code is centered on raw material extraction without downstream processing differentiation.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For Indonesia Crude Petroleum HS Code 270900 Export in 2025 October, market players face limited pricing power due to the commodity nature of the product, tying returns closely to volatile global oil markets. Strategic focus should remain on cost efficiency and volume management, as the absence of value-added products means competitiveness hinges on extraction and logistics rather than product differentiation.

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Indonesia Crude Petroleum (HS 270900) 2025 October Export: Market Concentration

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

In October 2025, Indonesia's export of Crude Petroleum HS Code 270900 is entirely concentrated in Thailand, with no other partners in the top 10, indicating a monopolistic trade relationship. The value and weight ratios are both at 100%, showing no disparity and a consistent unit price of approximately 0.53 USD per kg, which aligns with standard commodity pricing where product grade is uniform and traded in bulk.

Partner Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

With only one destination country, Thailand, there are no clusters to analyze; this singular export pattern likely stems from geographic proximity, existing bilateral energy agreements, or Thailand's specific refining capacity needs for crude petroleum, reducing logistics costs and simplifying supply chains for Indonesia's exports.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

For exporters and traders, this high dependency on Thailand poses significant supply chain risks, such as market volatility or political changes; diversifying to other regional markets could reduce exposure. While news on Indonesia's mineral export regulations under Permendag 8/2025 [Permitindo] may affect broader export policies, it underscores the need to monitor regulatory shifts for crude petroleum to adapt strategies promptly.

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Indonesia Crude Petroleum (HS 270900) 2025 October Export: Action Plan for Crude Petroleum Market Expansion

Strategic Supply Chain Overview

Indonesia Crude Petroleum Export 2025 October under HS Code 270900 is entirely concentrated in one product, one buyer type, and one destination. Price is driven solely by global crude indices like Brent or WTI. There is no product or pricing differentiation. This creates high supply chain risk. Indonesia depends entirely on high-volume buyers and Thailand as the single export market. Any demand shift or geopolitical event in Thailand could disrupt all trade flows. Cost efficiency in extraction and logistics is the only competitive lever.

Action Plan: Data-Driven Steps for Crude Petroleum Market Execution

• Use real-time trade data to identify alternative buyer segments in Southeast Asia. This reduces dependency on a single buyer type and spreads risk.
• Analyze shipping and tariff data for new export routes to markets like Vietnam or Malaysia. This diversifies geographic exposure and stabilizes revenue.
• Monitor policy platforms like Permitindo for changes to Indonesia’s mineral export rules. This allows quick adaptation to new compliance or market access requirements.
• Track global crude price benchmarks and correlate with shipment timing. This optimizes sales timing against price cycles to maximize margin.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Crude Petroleum Export 2025 October?

A1. The export value and volume collapsed by 89% and 93% month-over-month, likely due to Indonesia's new export restrictions under Permendag 8/2025, disrupting previously stable trade flows.

Q2. Who are the main partner countries in this Indonesia Crude Petroleum Export 2025 October?

A2. Thailand is the sole destination, capturing 100% of Indonesia's crude petroleum exports by value and volume in October 2025.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across Indonesia Crude Petroleum Export 2025 October partner countries?

A3. Unit prices are uniform (0.53 USD/kg) as the export consists entirely of standardized crude petroleum without refined or higher-grade variants.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Crude Petroleum export market?

A4. Exporters must diversify buyers and destinations to reduce reliance on Thailand and a single high-volume buyer segment, which poses high vulnerability.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Crude Petroleum export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

A5. Thai buyers benefit from stable supply terms but face risks if Indonesia's policy shifts or supply disruptions occur due to the lack of alternative sources.

Q6. How is Crude Petroleum typically used in this trade flow?

A6. The exported crude petroleum is a raw, unrefined commodity primarily used for refining into fuels, lubricants, or petrochemical feedstocks in destination markets.