Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade 2024 Q2: Deficit-Driven Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is marked by volatile growth and a heavy import reliance in Q2 2024.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Uzbekistan runs a $305.98M trade deficit with Turkmenistan, driven by $338.79M in imports (up sharply YoY) versus $32.81M in exports (mixed performance).
• Resource-for-Resource Exchange: Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan trade statistics reveal a narrow, commodity-heavy exchange—fertilizers (54% of exports) for mineral fuels (97% of imports).
• Transactional Interdependence: The relationship is strategically complementary but low-value, centered on energy security (Uzbekistan) and agricultural inputs (Turkmenistan).

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $32.81M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: +2.35% in April, +77.98% in May, but a sharp -27.58% drop in June.
  • No specific trade news to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: May saw a 115.17% MoM surge, while June plummeted -31.25% MoM.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $338.79M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth across all months: +10.72% (April), +271.76% (May), +110.17% (June).
• Key Volatility: May recorded a 241.05% MoM spike, followed by a slight -2.37% dip in June.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade Deficit of $305.98M (Imports exceed exports).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on imports from Turkmenistan, with exports dwarfed by inbound shipments.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Turkmenistan 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Turkmenistan 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: Fertilizers (HS 31) dominate exports, accounting for 54.41% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Turkmenistan likely uses these for agricultural production, given its reliance on farming.
• Concentration: High—HS 31 alone holds over half the export share, indicating a narrow trade focus.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: Mineral fuels (HS 27) make up 96.83% of imports, reflecting near-total dependence.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security is the clear driver, with Uzbekistan relying on Turkmenistan for fuel supplies.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports fertilizers (agricultural input) in exchange for energy (mineral fuels).
• Value Chain Position: Both sides trade low-value-added commodities, with no clear high-tech or industrial dominance. The relationship is transactional, not integrated.

Import Analysis by Product: Turkmenistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-Turkistan trade relationship is likely to remain volatile in the near term, driven by Turkmenistan’s outsized dominance in energy exports (HS 27) and Uzbekistan’s narrow fertilizer-based export profile (HS 31). While import demand for Turkmen fuel will sustain Uzbekistan’s trade deficit, the erratic monthly swings in export performance suggest exporters must brace for unpredictable demand shifts. Without diversification, the current resource-for-resource complementarity will keep both economies exposed to commodity price shocks.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Uzbek fertilizer producers should aggressively target alternative buyers in Central Asia to reduce reliance on Turkmen demand volatility.
• Lock in Energy Contracts: Given Uzbekistan’s near-total dependence on Turkmen fuel imports, long-term supply agreements with fixed pricing clauses are critical to hedge against sudden price spikes.
• Invest in Value-Added Exports: Uzbekistan must shift beyond raw fertilizer shipments by developing processed agricultural goods (e.g., NPK blends) to capture higher margins and stabilize trade flows.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Uzbekistan exported $32.81M to Turkmenistan, while imports totaled $338.79M, resulting in a trade deficit of $305.98M. Exports showed mixed YoY growth, while imports surged across all months.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan?

Fertilizers (HS 31) dominate Uzbekistan’s exports to Turkmenistan, accounting for 54.41% of total export value.

What does Uzbekistan import from Turkmenistan?

Mineral fuels (HS 27) make up 96.83% of Uzbekistan’s imports from Turkmenistan, reflecting near-total dependence on energy supplies.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $305.98M in Q2 2024, with imports significantly exceeding exports. The deficit widened due to strong import growth.