Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade 2024 Q1: Energy Dependency Crisis

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is marked by extreme volatility and a heavy deficit for Uzbekistan in Q1 2024.

• $197.51M Deficit: Uzbekistan’s imports from Turkmenistan ($213.19M) dwarfed exports ($15.68M), creating a 13.6x trade imbalance.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Uzbekistan supplies machinery (HS 84) and electrical equipment (HS 85) while relying on Turkmenistan for 95.7% of its mineral fuel imports (HS 27)—a classic energy security dependency.
• Unstable Complementarity: Despite clear economic synergy, erratic shipment patterns (e.g., February’s 118.4% MoM import spike) signal unreliable supply chains.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade Trend in Q1 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $15.68M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines persisted across all months, with March (-66.3%) marking the steepest drop.
  • February’s 20.47% MoM rebound failed to offset January’s -61.6% contraction.
• Key Volatility: March’s exports doubled MoM (+107%) but remained depressed YoY.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $213.19M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Extreme volatility: February surged 118.4% MoM, while March collapsed -65.66%.
  • YoY swings ranged from +438.32% (January) to -77.14% (March).
• Key Volatility: February’s $118.36M peak dwarfed other months, suggesting irregular shipments.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: $197.51M deficit for Uzbekistan (Imports exceeded exports by 13.6x).
• Relationship Status: Heavy import dependence, with erratic supply patterns from Turkmenistan. No evidence of rebalancing in Q1.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Turkmenistan 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Turkmenistan 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Top Trading Products in Q1 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: Machinery (HS 84) dominates exports, accounting for 21.26% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Turkmenistan likely imports machinery for industrial infrastructure development or maintenance.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but machinery, minerals (HS 25), and electrical equipment (HS 85) collectively make up 45.36%.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: Mineral fuels (HS 27) comprise 95.70% of imports, indicating near-total reliance.
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan’s imports are heavily skewed toward energy, reflecting a critical energy security dependency on Turkmenistan.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Uzbekistan supplies machinery and industrial goods (HS 84, 85) in exchange for Turkmenistan’s mineral fuels (HS 27).
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds higher value-add, exporting processed machinery (HS 84) and electrical goods (HS 85), while Turkmenistan provides raw energy (HS 27).

Import Analysis by Product: Turkmenistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade

The Uzbekistan-Turkistan trade relationship is likely to remain volatile in Q2 2024, with Uzbekistan’s widening deficit and erratic Turkmen energy shipments posing continued risks. While machinery exports (HS 84) may stabilize due to Turkmenistan’s infrastructure needs, Uzbekistan’s near-total reliance on Turkmen mineral fuels (HS 27) leaves it exposed to supply shocks. Without diversification, the 13.6x import-to-export imbalance will persist, exacerbating Uzbekistan’s energy security vulnerability. Traders should brace for irregular order flows and price swings, particularly in energy markets.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Diversify Energy Imports Immediately: Uzbekistan must reduce dependence on Turkmenistan by accelerating LNG or pipeline deals with Kazakhstan or Russia to mitigate supply disruptions.
• Lock In Machinery Contracts: Exporters of Uzbek industrial equipment (HS 84/85) should negotiate long-term supply agreements with Turkmen buyers, leveraging their infrastructure modernization demand.
• Push for Trade Rebalancing: The Uzbek government should incentivize non-energy exports (e.g., textiles, agriculture) to Turkmenistan through tariff relief or joint ventures, narrowing the deficit.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan trade perform in 2024 Q1?

Uzbekistan’s exports to Turkmenistan totaled $15.68M in Q1 2024, with persistent YoY declines, while imports surged to $213.19M, driven by extreme monthly volatility.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan?

The top exports include machinery (HS 84), minerals (HS 25), and electrical equipment (HS 85), collectively accounting for 45.36% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Turkmenistan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports mineral fuels (HS 27), which make up 95.70% of total imports, reflecting heavy energy dependence.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan?

Uzbekistan faced a $197.51M trade deficit in Q1 2024, with imports exceeding exports by 13.6x, indicating no rebalancing trend.