Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade 2023 Q4: Volatile Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is marked by growth, volatility, and a significant trade deficit in Q4 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan posted a $188.86M trade deficit with Turkmenistan, with imports ($224.45M) dwarfing exports ($35.59M). Volatile monthly swings suggest irregular bulk shipments or unrecorded adjustments.
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource exchange—fertilizers (49.47% of exports) for mineral fuels (94.62% of imports). Both sides trade low-value-added commodities.
• Strategic Interdependence: The relationship is transactional, with Uzbekistan dependent on Turkmenistan for energy security, while Turkmenistan relies on Uzbek fertilizers for agriculture.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $35.59M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: October saw a -14.35% decline, but November and December rebounded with +22.2% and +8.26% growth, respectively.
• Key Volatility: December exports dropped sharply (-38.09% MoM), contrasting with October’s +30.91% surge.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $224.45M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Extreme volatility: October imports spiked 232.78% YoY, then collapsed -92.42% YoY in November before recovering +99.09% YoY in December.
• Key Volatility: November imports plummeted -81.44% MoM, while December rebounded +547.47% MoM.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade Deficit of $188.86M (Imports exceeded exports).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan heavily reliant on imports from Turkmenistan, with Q4 imports 6.3x higher than exports. Volatility suggests irregular bulk shipments or unrecorded trade adjustments.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Turkmenistan 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Turkmenistan 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: Fertilizers (HS Code 31) dominate exports, accounting for 49.47% of total trade value.
• Demand Driver: Turkmenistan likely uses these fertilizers for agricultural production, indicating a reliance on Uzbekistan for crop inputs.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with the top commodity (fertilizers) holding nearly half of the export share.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: Mineral fuels (HS Code 27) make up 94.62% of imports, reflecting near-total dependence.
• Dependency Nature: This points to a critical energy security reliance, with Turkmenistan supplying the bulk of Uzbekistan's fossil fuel needs.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports fertilizers (agricultural inputs) in exchange for Turkmenistan's mineral fuels (energy).
• Value Chain Position: Both countries trade low-value-added commodities, with neither holding a clear high-value position. The relationship is transactional rather than integrated.

Import Analysis by Product: Turkmenistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-Turkistan trade relationship is likely to remain volatile in the near term, driven by irregular bulk shipments of mineral fuels and fertilizers. While Uzbekistan’s export rebound in November and December 2023 suggests resilient demand for fertilizers, the extreme fluctuations in Turkmenistan’s fuel exports indicate supply-side instability. Given the heavy reliance on energy imports, Uzbekistan must prepare for potential disruptions. Over the next year, trade volumes may stabilize if both countries formalize supply agreements, but the current transactional nature limits deeper integration.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Energy Sources: Reduce dependence on Turkmenistan’s mineral fuels by securing alternative suppliers or investing in domestic energy infrastructure to mitigate supply shocks.
• Lock in Fertilizer Contracts: Uzbek exporters should negotiate long-term agreements with Turkmen buyers to stabilize revenue streams and counterbalance volatile fuel imports.
• Monitor Trade Data Closely: Traders must track monthly shipment trends to anticipate sudden swings and adjust procurement or sales strategies accordingly.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Uzbekistan's exports to Turkmenistan totaled $35.59M in Q4 2023, showing mixed YoY growth, while imports surged to $224.45M, marked by extreme volatility.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan?

Fertilizers (HS Code 31) dominate Uzbekistan's exports to Turkmenistan, accounting for 49.47% of total trade value.

What does Uzbekistan import from Turkmenistan?

Mineral fuels (HS Code 27) make up 94.62% of Uzbekistan's imports from Turkmenistan, reflecting near-total energy reliance.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $188.86M in Q4 2023, with imports exceeding exports by 6.3x.