Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade 2023 Q3: Deficit & Fuel Dependence

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is marked by volatility and a heavy import dependency in Q3 2023.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Uzbekistan posted a $288.74M trade deficit, with imports ($340.81M) dwarfing exports ($52.07M), driven by a 1011.93% YoY surge in September.
• Resource-for-Resource Exchange: Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan trade statistics reveal a complementary exchange: fertilizers (43% of exports) for mineral fuels (97% of imports), reflecting energy-security reliance.
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Turkmenistan holds the strategic upper hand as Uzbekistan’s critical fuel supplier, while Uzbek exports remain intermediate goods.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $52.07M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Exports surged 65.35% YoY in August but dropped 40.48% MoM in September.
  • No specific trade news to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: July saw a 77.91% MoM spike, while September recorded the lowest monthly value ($9.82M).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $340.81M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Imports skyrocketed 1011.93% YoY in September, offsetting steep declines earlier (-55.17% YoY in August).
• Key Volatility: September’s imports ($301.79M) dwarfed other months, with a 1997.49% MoM surge.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade Deficit of $288.74M (Imports $340.81M > Exports $52.07M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan heavily reliant on imports from Turkmenistan, with September’s spike suggesting potential one-off shipments or supply adjustments.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Turkmenistan 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Turkmenistan 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 31 (Fertilizers) dominates with 43.06% share.
• Demand Driver: Turkmenistan likely uses these for agricultural production or industrial processing.
• Concentration: Moderate, with the top 3 exports (HS 31, 60, 28) accounting for 67.78% of total exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) accounts for 96.72% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, as Uzbekistan relies heavily on Turkmenistan for fuel.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports fertilizers (HS 31) and textiles (HS 60) while importing mineral fuels (HS 27) from Turkmenistan.
• Value Chain Position: Turkmenistan holds the higher-value position due to energy exports, while Uzbekistan’s exports are intermediate goods (fertilizers) and textiles.

Import Analysis by Product: Turkmenistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade with Turkmenistan is expected to remain volatile in the near term, driven by Turkmenistan’s dominant position in energy exports (HS 27) and Uzbekistan’s reliance on these shipments. The September 2023 import surge suggests potential supply chain adjustments or one-off deals, which may not sustain. However, Uzbekistan’s fertilizer exports (HS 31) to Turkmenistan could stabilize if agricultural demand persists. Traders should prepare for fluctuating volumes and pricing, particularly in energy imports, while monitoring Turkmenistan’s export policies for sudden shifts.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Energy Sources: Reduce dependency on Turkmenistan’s mineral fuels by exploring alternative suppliers or accelerating domestic energy projects to mitigate supply shocks.
• Lock in Fertilizer Contracts: Secure long-term agreements with Turkmen buyers to stabilize export revenue, leveraging Uzbekistan’s competitive position in agricultural inputs.
• Optimize Trade Financing: Use hedging instruments to manage currency and commodity price risks, especially given the trade deficit and volatile monthly trade flows.

Traders and policymakers must act decisively to balance this asymmetric trade relationship while capitalizing on Uzbekistan’s export strengths.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Uzbekistan exported $52.07M to Turkmenistan, while imports surged to $340.81M. Exports showed volatility with a 65.35% YoY growth in August but a 40.48% MoM drop in September.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan?

The top exports are HS Code 31 (Fertilizers), accounting for 43.06% of exports, followed by HS 60 (Textiles) and HS 28 (Chemicals).

What does Uzbekistan import from Turkmenistan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils), which makes up 96.72% of total imports from Turkmenistan.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $288.74M in Q3 2023, driven by a massive surge in energy imports from Turkmenistan.