Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade 2023 Q2: Energy Dependency Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan remains heavily skewed, with Uzbekistan running a significant deficit in Q2 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan posted a $119.07M trade deficit, with imports from Turkmenistan ($149.03M) dwarfing exports ($29.96M). Volatile monthly swings suggest unstable demand.
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource exchange—Uzbekistan supplies fertilizers (37.78% of exports) while relying on Turkmenistan for mineral fuels (88.78% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership reflects asymmetric energy dependency, with Turkmenistan holding leverage as Uzbekistan’s critical fuel supplier.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade Trend in Q2 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $29.96M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines persisted across all months, with May (-25.78%) and June (-14.94%) showing significant drops.
• Key Volatility: June saw a sharp MoM rebound (+68.96%) after a weak May, though still below prior-year levels.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $149.03M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: April and May contracted (-21.33% and -25.7%), but June rebounded (+4.32%).
• Key Volatility: June imports surged 72.69% MoM, offsetting earlier weakness.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: $119.07M trade deficit for Uzbekistan (Imports exceeded exports by 5x).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Turkmenistan for imports, with export volumes remaining marginal. No evidence of rebalancing in Q2.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Turkmenistan 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Turkmenistan 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Top Trading Products in Q2 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 31 (Fertilizers) with a 37.78% share.
• Demand Driver: Turkmenistan likely uses these for agricultural production, indicating a focus on supporting its farming sector.
• Concentration: Trade is moderately concentrated, with the top commodity holding a 37.78% share, but no single category dominates above 50%.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) with an 88.78% share.
• Dependency Nature: This reflects energy security dependency, as Uzbekistan relies heavily on Turkmenistan for fuel supplies.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity—Uzbekistan exports fertilizers (agricultural input) while importing energy (mineral fuels).
• Value Chain Position: Turkmenistan holds the higher value-add position in energy exports, while Uzbekistan’s fertilizer exports suggest a mid-value agricultural supply role.

Import Analysis by Product: Turkmenistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade deficit with Turkmenistan is expected to persist in Q3 2023, driven by continued reliance on energy imports (HS 27) and stagnant fertilizer exports (HS 31). The June rebound in imports suggests Turkmenistan’s fuel supply remains critical, but export volatility indicates weak demand diversification. Without structural shifts, Uzbekistan’s trade imbalance will likely widen further, exposing it to energy price fluctuations. Traders should prepare for sustained asymmetry in this resource-for-resource exchange.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Energy Sources: Reduce dependency on Turkmen fuel by securing alternative suppliers or investing in domestic energy capacity to mitigate supply shocks.
• Expand Fertilizer Value-Add: Upgrade Uzbekistan’s fertilizer exports (HS 31) to higher-margin products or packaged agricultural solutions to capture more value from Turkmen demand.
• Lock in Long-Term Contracts: Negotiate fixed-price agreements for critical imports (HS 27) to hedge against volatility, while pushing for reciprocal export commitments from Turkmen buyers.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan trade perform in 2023 Q2?

Uzbekistan's exports to Turkmenistan totaled $29.96M in Q2 2023, with YoY declines across all months. Imports from Turkmenistan reached $149.03M, showing mixed YoY performance but a strong MoM rebound in June.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan?

The top export from Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan is HS 31 (Fertilizers), holding a 37.78% share, likely supporting Turkmenistan's agricultural sector.

What does Uzbekistan import from Turkmenistan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports HS 27 (Mineral Fuels, Oils) from Turkmenistan, accounting for 88.78% of imports, reflecting a heavy reliance on energy supplies.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan?

Uzbekistan recorded a $119.07M trade deficit with Turkmenistan in Q2 2023, as imports exceeded exports by 5x, with no signs of rebalancing.