Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade 2023 Whole Year: Volatile Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade

• The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is marked by extreme volatility and a heavy deficit in 2023.
• Uzbekistan runs a $772.71M trade deficit with Turkmenistan, driven by imports ($931.27M) nearly 6x higher than exports ($158.56M).
• Resource-for-resource trade dominates: Uzbekistan supplies fertilizers (47% of exports) while relying on Turkmenistan for mineral fuels (95% of imports).
• Strategic energy dependence: Uzbekistan’s critical need for Turkmen energy creates an asymmetric but foundational economic linkage.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade Trend in Whole Year 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $158.56M in 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: Strong growth in Q1 (e.g., March: +189.64% YoY) but contractions in April (-14.63%) and May (-25.78%).
  • No specific trade news to contextualize trends.
• Key Volatility: March saw the highest exports ($24.70M, +110.02% MoM), while December recorded the sharpest MoM drop (-38.09%).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $931.27M in 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Extreme YoY swings: September imports surged (+1,011.93% YoY), but November collapsed (-92.42%).
  • No relevant news to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: September was the peak ($301.79M, +1,997.49% MoM), while August hit the lowest ($14.39M, -41.6% MoM).

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade Deficit of -$772.71M (Exports $158.56M vs. Imports $931.27M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan is heavily dependent on imports from Turkmenistan, with imports nearly 6x export volumes.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Turkmenistan 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Turkmenistan 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Top Trading Products in Whole Year 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: Fertilizers (HS 31) dominate exports, accounting for 47.03% of total trade value.
• Demand Driver: Turkmenistan likely uses these fertilizers for agricultural production, reflecting its reliance on Uzbekistan for crop inputs.
• Concentration: The trade is highly concentrated, with fertilizers alone making up nearly half of all exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: Mineral fuels (HS 27) are the primary import, representing 94.65% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan depends heavily on Turkmenistan for energy, indicating a critical energy security linkage.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Uzbekistan supplies agricultural inputs (fertilizers) while importing energy (mineral fuels) from Turkmenistan.
• Value Chain Position: Both countries trade low-value-added raw materials, with neither holding a clear high-value position. The exchange is foundational rather than technologically advanced.

Import Analysis by Product: Turkmenistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-Turkurkmenistan trade relationship is likely to remain volatile in the near term, driven by Turkmenistan’s heavy reliance on Uzbek fertilizers and Uzbekistan’s critical dependence on Turkmen energy supplies. Given the extreme swings in import volumes—particularly in mineral fuels—traders should anticipate sporadic supply disruptions or price fluctuations. However, the structural complementarity (resource-for-resource exchange) ensures continued trade, albeit with uneven growth. Exporters must prepare for demand spikes in Q1 (historically strong for Uzbek fertilizer sales) while importers should brace for potential energy supply shocks.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Energy Sources: Uzbekistan’s over-reliance on Turkmen mineral fuels (94.65% of imports) exposes it to supply volatility. Importers should secure alternative suppliers in Kazakhstan or Russia to mitigate disruptions.
• Lock in Fertilizer Contracts: With fertilizers dominating Uzbek exports (47.03% of trade), producers should negotiate long-term agreements with Turkmen buyers to stabilize revenue amid seasonal demand swings.
• Monitor Trade Policy Shifts: Both nations may adjust export/import restrictions to manage domestic shortages. Traders must track regulatory changes, especially in energy and agriculture, to avoid sudden compliance risks.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan trade perform in 2023 Whole Year?

Uzbekistan exported $158.56M to Turkmenistan and imported $931.27M, resulting in mixed growth trends with notable volatility in both exports and imports.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan?

Fertilizers (HS 31) dominated Uzbekistan's exports to Turkmenistan, accounting for 47.03% of total trade value.

What does Uzbekistan import from Turkmenistan?

Mineral fuels (HS 27) were the primary import, making up 94.65% of Uzbekistan's total imports from Turkmenistan.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan?

Uzbekistan had a trade deficit of -$772.71M, with imports nearly 6x higher than exports.