Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade 2024 Q4: Energy Reliance & Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is marked by extreme volatility and a heavy import dependency in Q4 2024.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Uzbekistan runs a $212.87M trade deficit with Turkmenistan, with imports ($239.45M) dwarfing exports ($26.58M). YoY swings were erratic, including a 573% import surge in November.
• Energy-for-Industrial Exchange: Bilateral trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic—Uzbekistan imports 94.93% mineral fuels (HS 27) from Turkmenistan while exporting diversified industrial inputs like chemicals (HS 38).
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Uzbekistan’s energy security hinges on Turkmenistan, while its export basket lacks concentrated leverage, signaling a one-sided reliance.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $26.58M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth turned positive in December (+7.17%) after sharp declines in October (-33.73%) and November (-37.71%).
• Key Volatility: October saw the highest MoM growth (+28.67%), while November had the weakest momentum (+2.65%).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Turkmenistan

• Total Volume: $239.45M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Extreme YoY swings: November surged 573.01%, while October and December fell -28.28% and -51.67%, respectively.
• Key Volatility: November’s imports spiked 74.14% MoM to $117.43M, then halved in December (-53.51%).

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of -$212.87M (Exports $26.58M vs. Imports $239.45M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan is heavily import-dependent on Turkmenistan, with Q4 imports nearly 9x exports. Volatility in November suggests irregular bulk purchases.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Turkmenistan 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Turkmenistan 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 38 (Miscellaneous chemical products) dominates at 18.17% of exports.
• Demand Driver: Turkmenistan likely uses these for industrial processing, given the prevalence of chemicals and raw materials in the top exports.
• Concentration: No single category dominates; the top export (HS 38) holds 18.17%, indicating a diversified export basket.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Turkmenistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) accounts for 94.93% of imports, a near-total reliance.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency is stark, with Uzbekistan heavily reliant on Turkmenistan for fuel.

Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports industrial inputs (chemicals, machinery parts) while importing energy (mineral fuels) from Turkmenistan.
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds a higher value-add position, exporting processed goods (chemicals, machinery) versus Turkmenistan’s raw energy exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Turkmenistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-Turkurkmenistan trade relationship is likely to remain volatile in the near term, driven by Turkmenistan’s dominance in energy exports and Uzbekistan’s diversified but smaller industrial shipments. The extreme swings in import volumes—particularly the November surge—suggest irregular bulk fuel purchases, which may continue due to seasonal demand or supply constraints. However, Uzbekistan’s modest export recovery in December indicates potential for gradual growth in non-energy trade, especially in chemicals and machinery. Traders should prepare for uneven momentum, with energy dependency keeping Uzbekistan’s trade deficit wide unless export diversification accelerates.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Energy Sources: Uzbekistan must reduce reliance on Turkmen fuel by securing alternative suppliers or investing in domestic energy capacity to mitigate price and supply shocks.
• Lock In Export Contracts: Uzbek exporters of chemicals and machinery should negotiate long-term agreements with Turkmen buyers to stabilize demand and counterbalance import volatility.
• Monitor Trade Policy Shifts: Both governments may adjust tariffs or quotas to address the deficit; traders should stay ahead of regulatory changes to avoid disruptions.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Turkmenistan trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Uzbekistan's exports to Turkmenistan totaled $26.58M in Q4 2024, with mixed YoY growth, while imports surged to $239.45M, showing extreme volatility, including a 573.01% YoY spike in November.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Turkmenistan?

The top export is HS Code 38 (Miscellaneous chemical products), accounting for 18.17% of Uzbekistan's exports to Turkmenistan, reflecting a diversified export basket.

What does Uzbekistan import from Turkmenistan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) from Turkmenistan, making up 94.93% of total imports, highlighting a heavy reliance on energy.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of -$212.87M in Q4 2024, with imports nearly 9x higher than exports, indicating strong import dependency on Turkmenistan.