Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade 2024 Whole Year: Surplus-Driven Resource Exchange
Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan reflects volatile but strategically complementary exchanges in 2024.
- Surplus-Driven Trade: Uzbekistan holds a $236.61M trade surplus, exporting $380.80M (2.6x imports) despite YoY declines in key months like March (-38.68%) and April (-33.76%).
- Resource-for-Resource Exchange: Uzbekistan - Tajikistan trade statistics show energy (Mineral fuels, 13.56%) and industrial goods flow to Tajikistan, while Uzbekistan imports raw ores (22.48%) and chemical byproducts, highlighting mutual raw material dependency.
- Asymmetric Value Chain: Uzbekistan occupies a higher value-add position, supplying processed goods (fertilizers, machinery) versus Tajikistan’s unprocessed exports.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Trade Trend in Whole Year 2024
Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Tajikistan
- Total Volume: $380.80M in 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY declines dominated the year, with only October (+23.11% YoY) and February (+11.67% YoY) showing growth. The steepest drops occurred in March (-38.68% YoY) and April (-33.76% YoY).
- No specific trade news or policy changes were cited to explain these trends.
- Key Volatility: July (+25.98% MoM) and December (+22.7% MoM) saw the sharpest monthly surges, while January (-66.43% MoM) and August (-13.02% MoM) recorded significant contractions.
Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Tajikistan
- Total Volume: $144.19M in 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY performance was mixed, with February (+246.93% YoY), December (+78.2% YoY), and September (+25.98% YoY) offsetting steep declines like October (-59.95% YoY) and April (-56.57% YoY).
- Key Volatility: February (+571.95% MoM) was an outlier spike, while October (-49.76% MoM) and March (-80.51% MoM) saw severe monthly drops.
Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade surplus of $236.61M (Exports $380.80M vs. Imports $144.19M).
- Relationship Status: Uzbekistan is a net exporter to Tajikistan, with exports exceeding imports by 2.6x. The surplus reflects strong outward trade flows despite volatile monthly performance on both sides.
Uzbekistan Import Trend from Tajikistan 2024 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 4.93M | -40.95% | 0.09% |
| Feb | 33.15M | 571.95% | 246.93% |
| Mar | 6.46M | -80.51% | -23.39% |
| Apr | 5.82M | -9.96% | -56.57% |
| May | 8.35M | 43.53% | -34.73% |
| Jun | 8.77M | 4.99% | -32.06% |
| Jul | 13.38M | 52.63% | 23.81% |
| Aug | 12.81M | -4.26% | -2.83% |
| Sep | 15.69M | 22.53% | 25.98% |
| Oct | 7.89M | -49.76% | -59.95% |
| Nov | 12.06M | 52.91% | 11.15% |
| Dec | 14.89M | 23.47% | 78.2% |
| Total | 144.19M | - | - |
Uzbekistan Export Trend to Tajikistan 2024 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 19.61M | -66.43% | -10.18% |
| Feb | 28.39M | 44.75% | 11.67% |
| Mar | 23.66M | -16.66% | -38.68% |
| Apr | 25.45M | 7.54% | -33.76% |
| May | 33.20M | 30.49% | -31.03% |
| Jun | 29.01M | -12.64% | -27.47% |
| Jul | 36.54M | 25.98% | -1.06% |
| Aug | 31.78M | -13.02% | -18.39% |
| Sep | 31.00M | -2.45% | -16.68% |
| Oct | 38.36M | 23.73% | 23.11% |
| Nov | 37.62M | -1.93% | -27.77% |
| Dec | 46.16M | 22.7% | -20.99% |
| Total | 380.80M | - | - |
Get Historical Uzbekistan Tajikistan Trade Records
Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Top Trading Products in Whole Year 2024
Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Tajikistan
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 13.56% of total exports.
- Demand Driver: Tajikistan relies on Uzbekistan for energy supplies (Mineral fuels, oils) and industrial inputs (Fertilizers, Iron/steel). This suggests Tajikistan uses these for industrial processing and energy needs.
- Concentration: No single category dominates (>50% share). Exports are diversified across energy, chemicals, machinery, and textiles.
Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Tajikistan
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 26 (Ores, slag, ash) at 22.48% of total imports.
- Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan heavily sources raw materials (Ores, slag, ash) and chemical byproducts (HS 38) from Tajikistan, indicating raw material dependency for industrial production.
Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports energy and industrial goods to Tajikistan, while importing ores and chemical products. This reflects a mutual reliance on raw materials and intermediate goods.
- Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds a slightly higher value-add position, exporting processed goods (e.g., fertilizers, machinery) while importing mostly unprocessed ores and chemicals.
Import Analysis by Product: Tajikistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | 32.41M | 22.48% |
| 38 | 27.43M | 19.02% |
| 27 | 24.21M | 16.79% |
| 76 | 18.12M | 12.56% |
| 25 | 9.24M | 6.41% |
| 72 | 7.01M | 4.86% |
| 52 | 5.76M | 3.99% |
| 36 | 5.08M | 3.53% |
| 23 | 4.03M | 2.80% |
| 01 | 2.60M | 1.80% |
Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Tajikistan (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 51.65M | 13.56% |
| 31 | 36.57M | 9.60% |
| 63 | 28.42M | 7.46% |
| 72 | 27.14M | 7.13% |
| 84 | 25.56M | 6.71% |
| 39 | 25.45M | 6.68% |
| 23 | 24.94M | 6.55% |
| 50 | 14.40M | 3.78% |
| 69 | 12.75M | 3.35% |
| 73 | 10.89M | 2.86% |
Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Tajikistan is expected to persist in 2025, driven by sustained demand for energy and industrial goods. However, volatility in monthly trade flows—particularly in mineral fuels and ores—signals potential supply chain disruptions or pricing fluctuations. Exporters should anticipate seasonal demand spikes in Q4 (historically strong for Uzbek energy shipments) while importers must prepare for raw material price swings due to Tajikistan’s inconsistent output. The resource-for-resource exchange model will remain dominant, but diversification into higher-value processed goods could stabilize bilateral trade.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Energy Contracts: Uzbek fuel exporters should secure long-term agreements with Tajik buyers to mitigate price volatility, especially ahead of winter demand surges.
- Diversify Raw Material Sources: Importers of Tajik ores and chemicals must identify alternative suppliers in Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan to reduce dependency on erratic shipments.
- Upgrade Logistics for Textiles: Uzbek textile and machinery exporters should invest in cross-border rail efficiency to capitalize on Tajikistan’s growing manufacturing sector, avoiding bottlenecks seen in 2024.
Note: Traders must monitor Tajik fiscal policies—any subsidies on domestic ore processing could disrupt Uzbekistan’s import advantage.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Uzbekistan - Tajikistan trade perform in 2024 Whole Year?
Uzbekistan exported $380.80M to Tajikistan and imported $144.19M, with mixed YoY growth trends and notable monthly volatility in both directions.
What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan?
The top export is Mineral fuels and oils (HS Code 27), followed by fertilizers, iron/steel, and textiles, reflecting diversified trade.
What does Uzbekistan import from Tajikistan?
The top import is Ores, slag, and ash (HS Code 26), along with chemical byproducts (HS 38), indicating reliance on raw materials.
What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan?
Uzbekistan holds a trade surplus of $236.61M, with exports exceeding imports by 2.6x, reinforcing its net exporter position.
Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade 2023 Q3: Widening Surplus
Uzbekistan's trade surplus with Tajikistan hit $76.64M in Q3 2023 as exports grew while Tajik demand collapsed. Explore Uzbekistan Tajikistan trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade 2024 Q4: $87.32M Surge
Uzbekistan's $87.32M trade surplus with Tajikistan highlights a resource-for-resource exchange. Explore Uzbekistan Tajikistan trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
