Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade 2023 Q3: Widening Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan shows a widening surplus amid volatile export growth and collapsing Tajik demand in Q3 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan posted a $76.64M trade surplus ($113.09M exports vs. $36.45M imports), with exports growing unevenly (+3.47% to +11.17% YoY) while Tajikistan’s shipments to Uzbekistan plummeted (-13.22% to -41.1% YoY).
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Tajikistan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource complementarity—Uzbekistan supplies energy (HS 27) and machinery (HS 84) while importing raw materials (HS 25, 26) for industrial use.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership reflects supply chain linkage, with Uzbekistan holding higher value-add exports and Tajikistan serving as a raw material supplier.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Tajikistan

• Total Volume: $113.09M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was mixed, with July (+3.47%) and September (+11.17%) gains offset by August’s near-flat performance (+0.7%). No trade policy updates were reported to contextualize shifts.
• Key Volatility: August saw the highest monthly exports ($38.94M, +5.44% MoM), while September posted a -4.45% MoM drop.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Tajikistan

• Total Volume: $36.45M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY declines persisted across all months (July: -41.1%, August: -30.88%, September: -13.22%), signaling a structural demand shift or supply constraint. No relevant news to explain the slump.
• Key Volatility: August imports spiked 21.99% MoM to $13.18M, but September reversed with a -5.5% MoM contraction.

Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $76.64M (Exports $113.09M > Imports $36.45M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan dominates as a net exporter, with Tajikistan’s import demand weakening sharply YoY. The surplus widened despite export volatility.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Tajikistan 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Tajikistan 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Tajikistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Tajikistan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 19.42% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Tajikistan relies on Uzbekistan for energy supplies, likely for industrial and domestic consumption.
• Concentration: No single category dominates (>50%), but energy (HS 27) leads with significant support from textiles (HS 50) and machinery (HS 84).

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Tajikistan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 25 (Salt, sulfur, earths, stone) at 21.42% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan sources raw materials (HS 25, 27, 26) from Tajikistan, indicating a raw material dependency for construction or industrial inputs.

Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Uzbekistan supplies energy (HS 27) and machinery (HS 84) while importing raw materials (HS 25, 26) from Tajikistan.
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds a higher value-add position, exporting processed goods (fuels, machinery) versus Tajikistan’s raw material exports. Trade suggests a supply chain linkage rather than direct competition.

Import Analysis by Product: Tajikistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Tajikistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Tajikistan is likely to widen further in Q4 2023, driven by sustained demand for Uzbek energy (HS 27) and machinery (HS 84), despite Tajikistan’s weakening import appetite. The structural complementarity—Uzbekistan’s processed exports versus Tajikistan’s raw materials—will persist, but volatility in monthly trade flows calls for caution. If Tajikistan’s import slump continues, Uzbek exporters should brace for potential demand softening in 2024, particularly in raw material categories like HS 25.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Energy Contracts: Uzbek fuel exporters should secure long-term supply agreements with Tajik buyers to stabilize revenue amid fluctuating monthly demand.
• Diversify Import Sources: Given Tajikistan’s declining exports, Uzbek industrial firms must scout alternative suppliers for raw materials (HS 25, 26) to avoid supply chain disruptions.
• Invest in Logistics Efficiency: With August’s export spike highlighting capacity constraints, Uzbek traders should optimize cross-border freight routes to handle peak volumes smoothly.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Tajikistan trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Uzbekistan exported $113.09M to Tajikistan with mixed YoY growth, while imports fell sharply to $36.45M, resulting in a widening trade surplus.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan?

The top exports include Mineral fuels and oils (HS 27), textiles (HS 50), and machinery (HS 84), with energy leading at 19.42% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Tajikistan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports Salt, sulfur, and stone (HS 25), along with other raw materials like mineral fuels (HS 27) and ores (HS 26).

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade surplus of $76.64M, driven by higher exports and declining imports from Tajikistan in Q3 2023.