Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade 2023 Q2: Surge & Resource Exchange

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan surged with volatile growth in Q2 2023.

• Uzbekistan dominates with an $87.46M surplus, exporting $126.55M (up 60.25% YoY peak) while importing $39.09M (mixed YoY trends).
• Uzbekistan - Tajikistan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource exchange: Uzbekistan supplies energy (HS 27) and manufactured goods (apparel, machinery), while Tajikistan provides raw materials (ores, cotton).
• Asymmetric interdependence: Uzbekistan holds higher value-add leverage, but both rely on complementary supply chains—energy for raw materials.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Trade Trend in Q2 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Tajikistan

• Total Volume: $126.55M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Exports surged 60.25% YoY in April, peaking at 105.76% YoY growth in May before moderating to 33.43% in June.
  • No specific trade news or policy changes were reported to explain these fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: May saw a 25.32% MoM jump, while June recorded a sharp -16.93% MoM decline.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Tajikistan

• Total Volume: $39.09M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Imports grew 27.73% YoY in April but contracted -3.28% YoY in May and -17.48% YoY in June.
• Key Volatility: April posted a 58.82% MoM surge, while May and June showed marginal declines (-4.51% and +0.88% MoM, respectively).

Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Uzbekistan held an $87.46M trade surplus with Tajikistan (Exports: $126.55M; Imports: $39.09M).
• Relationship Status: Strong net exporter role, with exports over triple the value of imports.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Tajikistan 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Tajikistan 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Tajikistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Top Trading Products in Q2 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Tajikistan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 15.02% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Tajikistan relies on Uzbekistan for energy supplies, likely for industrial and domestic consumption.
• Concentration: No single category dominates (>50% share). Exports are diversified across apparel (HS 61), fertilizers (HS 31), machinery (HS 84), and textiles (HS 50, 52).

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Tajikistan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 26 (Ores, slag, ash) at 29.64% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan sources raw materials (ores, minerals) from Tajikistan, indicating industrial processing dependency. Secondary imports like iron/steel (HS 72, 76) and cotton (HS 52) suggest supply chain linkages.

Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Uzbekistan supplies energy (HS 27) and manufactured goods (apparel, machinery), while Tajikistan provides raw materials (ores, metals, cotton).
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds a higher value-add position, exporting processed goods (e.g., apparel, machinery) versus Tajikistan’s raw material exports. Trade reflects asymmetric but interdependent supply chains.

Import Analysis by Product: Tajikistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Tajikistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Tajikistan is expected to widen further in Q3 2023, driven by sustained demand for Uzbek mineral fuels and processed goods. However, volatility in Tajikistan’s raw material exports—particularly ores and metals—may introduce supply chain risks. The current resource-for-resource complementarity suggests stable long-term trade, but exporters should prepare for potential seasonal fluctuations, especially in energy shipments. Traders should monitor Tajikistan’s industrial demand shifts to anticipate changes in import volumes.

Strategic Moves

• Secure Long-Term Energy Contracts: Lock in favorable terms for HS Code 27 (mineral fuels) to stabilize revenue amid Tajikistan’s growing reliance on Uzbek energy.
• Diversify Raw Material Sources: Reduce dependency on Tajik ores (HS 26) by exploring alternative suppliers to mitigate supply chain disruptions.
• Expand High-Value Exports: Capitalize on Uzbekistan’s competitive edge in apparel (HS 61) and machinery (HS 84) by targeting Tajikistan’s underserved manufacturing sectors.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Tajikistan trade perform in 2023 Q2?

Uzbekistan's exports to Tajikistan surged 60.25% YoY in April, peaking at 105.76% YoY growth in May, while imports grew 27.73% YoY in April but contracted in May and June. Total trade volume reached $126.55M in exports and $39.09M in imports.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan?

Uzbekistan's top exports to Tajikistan include mineral fuels and oils (HS 27), apparel (HS 61), fertilizers (HS 31), machinery (HS 84), and textiles (HS 50, 52). Energy supplies (HS 27) lead at 15.02% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Tajikistan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports ores, slag, and ash (HS 26) from Tajikistan, accounting for 29.64% of total imports. Other key imports include iron/steel (HS 72, 76) and cotton (HS 52), reflecting raw material dependency.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan?

Uzbekistan held an $87.46M trade surplus with Tajikistan in Q2 2023. Exports ($126.55M) were over triple the value of imports ($39.09M), reinforcing its strong net exporter role.