Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade 2024 Q4: $87.32M Surge
Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan shows growth with high volatility in Q4 2024.
- Uzbekistan holds an $87.32M trade surplus, exporting $122.15M (led by mineral fuels and fertilizers) while importing $34.83M (dominated by ores and metals).
- Trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource exchange: Uzbekistan supplies energy and agro-industrial goods, while Tajikistan provides raw materials like ores for Uzbek processing.
- Strategic interdependence is strong but uneven, with Uzbekistan leveraging higher-value exports while Tajikistan remains a critical raw material supplier.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Trade Trend in Q4 2024
Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Tajikistan
- Total Volume: $122.15M in Q4 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY declines in November (-27.77%) and December (-20.99%) offset October’s 23.11% growth, signaling weakening demand or competitive shifts. No news context provided.
- Key Volatility: December saw the highest export value ($46.16M) and a 22.7% MoM surge, suggesting year-end shipment push.
Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Tajikistan
- Total Volume: $34.83M in Q4 2024.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Volatile YoY swings: +78.2% growth in December followed a -59.95% crash in October, indicating erratic supply chains or inventory adjustments.
- Key Volatility: October’s imports halved MoM (-49.76%), while December peaked at $14.89M with a 23.47% MoM rise.
Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $87.32M trade surplus for Uzbekistan (Exports $122.15M > Imports $34.83M).
- Relationship Status: Uzbekistan dominates as a net exporter, though import volatility hints at uneven Tajikistani supply capacity.
Uzbekistan Import Trend from Tajikistan 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 7.89M | -49.76% | -59.95% |
| Nov | 12.06M | 52.91% | 11.15% |
| Dec | 14.89M | 23.47% | 78.2% |
| Total | 34.83M | - | - |
Uzbekistan Export Trend to Tajikistan 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 38.36M | 23.73% | 23.11% |
| Nov | 37.62M | -1.93% | -27.77% |
| Dec | 46.16M | 22.7% | -20.99% |
| Total | 122.15M | - | - |
Get Historical Uzbekistan Tajikistan Trade Records
Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Top Trading Products in Q4 2024
Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Tajikistan
- Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) dominates at 12.75% of total exports.
- Demand Driver: Tajikistan relies on Uzbekistan for energy supplies, likely for industrial and residential needs.
- Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but energy (HS 27) and fertilizers (HS 31) collectively account for 24.6% of exports.
Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Tajikistan
- Top Commodity: HS Code 26 (Ores, slag, ash) leads with 40.90% of imports, indicating heavy reliance on Tajik raw materials.
- Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan imports ores and metals (HS 26, 76, 72) for industrial processing, suggesting a raw material dependency.
Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity—Uzbekistan supplies energy (HS 27) and fertilizers (HS 31), while Tajikistan provides ores (HS 26) and metals (HS 76).
- Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds a slight edge with higher-value exports (fertilizers, machinery), while Tajikistan’s exports are predominantly raw materials.
Import Analysis by Product: Tajikistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | 14.25M | 40.90% |
| 76 | 5.90M | 16.93% |
| 27 | 5.09M | 14.62% |
| 36 | 2.40M | 6.89% |
| 72 | 1.88M | 5.39% |
| 25 | 1.71M | 4.92% |
| 52 | 639.58K | 1.84% |
| 85 | 450.35K | 1.29% |
| 08 | 369.43K | 1.06% |
| 73 | 334.21K | 0.96% |
Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Tajikistan (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 15.57M | 12.75% |
| 31 | 14.48M | 11.85% |
| 63 | 14.36M | 11.76% |
| 50 | 13.40M | 10.97% |
| 23 | 7.08M | 5.80% |
| 39 | 5.55M | 4.54% |
| 72 | 5.32M | 4.35% |
| 84 | 4.32M | 3.53% |
| 69 | 4.11M | 3.37% |
| 73 | 3.44M | 2.82% |
Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Tajikistan is expected to persist in 2025, driven by sustained demand for energy (HS 27) and fertilizers (HS 31). However, the volatile import trends from Tajikistan—marked by erratic swings in raw material shipments—suggest potential supply chain disruptions or inventory mismatches. Traders should anticipate tighter margins in the short term, with Uzbekistan’s export growth likely stabilizing rather than accelerating. The Uzbekistan-Tajikistan trade forecast hinges on Tajikistan’s ability to stabilize its raw material exports, while Uzbek exporters may face pricing pressure from competitors in the region.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Energy Contracts: Uzbek exporters of mineral fuels (HS 27) should secure long-term agreements with Tajik buyers to mitigate price volatility and ensure steady revenue streams.
- Diversify Raw Material Sources: Given Tajikistan’s unreliable ore and metal shipments (HS 26, 76), Uzbek manufacturers must scout alternative suppliers in Kazakhstan or Iran to reduce dependency risks.
- Optimize Logistics for Seasonal Peaks: The December surge in Uzbek exports suggests Tajik buyers stockpile ahead of winter. Exporters should pre-position inventory and negotiate freight discounts to capitalize on predictable demand spikes.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Uzbekistan - Tajikistan trade perform in 2024 Q4?
Uzbekistan exported $122.15M to Tajikistan but faced YoY declines in November and December. Imports from Tajikistan totaled $34.83M, with volatile YoY swings.
What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan?
Top exports include mineral fuels and oils (HS 27) and fertilizers (HS 31), accounting for 24.6% of total exports.
What does Uzbekistan import from Tajikistan?
Uzbekistan primarily imports ores, slag, and ash (HS 26), making up 40.90% of total imports, along with metals (HS 76, 72).
What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan?
Uzbekistan recorded an $87.32M trade surplus in Q4 2024, driven by higher exports of energy and fertilizers compared to imports of raw materials.
Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade 2024 Whole Year: Surplus-Driven Resource Exchange
Uzbekistan's $236.61M trade surplus with Tajikistan highlights their resource-for-resource exchange. Explore Uzbekistan Tajikistan trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Top Uzbekistan Exports 2023: Commodity Dominance
Uzbekistan's top export product in 2023 was dominated by precious metals and cotton, highlighting its reliance on raw materials. Discover key trends and top export destinations with yTrade.
