Uzbekistan - Russia Trade 2024 Q3: Widening Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Russia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Russia shows a widening trade deficit amid volatile growth in 2024 Q3.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan’s trade deficit with Russia hit $975.19M in Q3 2024, driven by $1.81B in imports (mostly energy) versus $834.81M in exports. Growth was erratic, with exports dropping sharply in September (-16.47% YoY).
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Russia trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic—Uzbekistan supplies agricultural goods (24.21% HS 08) while relying on Russian mineral fuels (31.33% HS 27) and industrial inputs.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership remains asymmetrical, with Uzbekistan dependent on Russian energy and Russia leveraging its higher-value exports (machinery, fuels).

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Russia Trade Trend in Q3 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Russia

• Total Volume: $834.81M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed: +13.01% in July, +8.83% in August, but a sharp -16.47% decline in September.
  • No specific trade news or policy changes were reported to explain the volatility.
• Key Volatility: September saw the steepest MoM drop (-13.34%), erasing earlier gains.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Russia

• Total Volume: $1.81B in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth remained positive but decelerated: +30.44% in July, +7.58% in August, +13.43% in September.
  • No external events were cited to contextualize the trend.
• Key Volatility: July recorded the highest value ($655.02M) and strongest MoM growth (+14.81%), while August saw a -10.08% contraction.

Uzbekistan - Russia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade Deficit of $975.19M (Imports exceeded exports by this margin).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan remains heavily dependent on Russian imports, with a widening deficit compared to exports. The Q3 data shows no signs of rebalancing.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Russia 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Russia 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Russia Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Russia Top Trading Products in Q3 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 08 (Edible fruit and nuts) at 24.21% of total exports to Russia.
• Demand Driver: Russia imports these primarily for its consumer market, indicating Uzbekistan's role as a supplier of agricultural goods.
• Concentration: Trade is moderately concentrated, with the top 3 exports (HS 08, 61, 52) accounting for 53.68% of total exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 31.33% of total imports from Russia.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects energy security dependency, as Russia supplies critical fuel and oil products.

Uzbekistan - Russia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Uzbekistan exports agricultural and textile goods (HS 08, 61, 52) while importing energy and industrial inputs (HS 27, 72, 44).
• Value Chain Position: Russia holds the higher value-add position, supplying energy and machinery (HS 84, 85), while Uzbekistan provides raw materials and consumer goods.

Import Analysis by Product: Russia to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Russia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Russia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-Russia trade relationship is likely to remain volatile in the near term, with Uzbekistan’s widening trade deficit signaling persistent dependency on Russian energy imports. While agricultural exports (HS 08) show resilience, the sharp September decline suggests demand fluctuations in Russia’s consumer market. Without policy intervention, the deficit could deepen further, especially if energy prices rise. However, Russia’s steady import growth indicates continued reliance on Uzbek goods, creating opportunities for exporters who can stabilize supply chains.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Uzbek exporters should reduce reliance on Russia by targeting alternative markets for agricultural and textile goods (HS 08, 61, 52), such as the EU or China, to mitigate demand volatility.
• Lock in Energy Contracts: Given Uzbekistan’s heavy dependence on Russian mineral fuels (HS 27), the government and importers should negotiate long-term supply agreements to hedge against price spikes and ensure stable energy inflows.
• Upgrade Value Chains: Textile and agricultural producers must invest in processing capabilities to move up the value chain, reducing reliance on raw material exports and capturing higher margins in finished goods trade with Russia.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Russia trade perform in 2024 Q3?

Uzbekistan's exports to Russia totaled $834.81M, with mixed YoY growth, while imports from Russia reached $1.81B, showing decelerating but positive growth.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Russia?

The top exports are HS 08 (Edible fruit and nuts), HS 61 (Apparel), and HS 52 (Cotton), accounting for 53.68% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Russia?

The top import is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils), making up 31.33% of total imports, followed by industrial inputs like HS 72 (Iron and steel) and HS 44 (Wood).

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Russia?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $975.19M, with imports exceeding exports, and the gap shows no signs of narrowing.