Uzbekistan - Russia Trade 2024 Q4: Widening Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Russia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Russia shows persistent volatility amid a widening deficit in Q4 2024.

• $1.29B deficit dominates the exchange, with imports ($2.01B) far outpacing exports ($723.43M), despite mixed YoY performance in Russian shipments.
• Uzbekistan - Russia trade statistics reveal a lopsided structure: Uzbekistan supplies textiles and agricultural goods (HS 61, 08, 52) while relying on Russian energy (HS 27) and industrial inputs.
• Asymmetric dependency defines the partnership—Russia holds leverage as a critical supplier of high-value commodities, while Uzbekistan’s export basket lacks diversification.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Russia Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Russia

• Total Volume: $723.43M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY decline persisted across all months, with December (-15.47%) marking the sharpest drop.
  • No mitigating news to explain the contraction.
• Key Volatility: December saw a severe MoM plunge (-14.77%), the quarter’s lowest performance.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Russia

• Total Volume: $2.01B in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY trends: October (+25.42%) surged, but December (-6.17%) reversed gains.
  • No news to contextualize fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: October’s imports peaked (21.19% MoM growth), while December dipped (-1.2% MoM).

Uzbekistan - Russia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: $1.29B deficit (Imports exceeded exports by this margin).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Russian imports, with exports failing to offset the imbalance.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Russia 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Russia 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Russia Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Russia Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Russia

• Top Commodity: HS Code 61 (Apparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted) dominates at 17.78% of exports.
• Demand Driver: Russia imports these consumer goods to meet domestic retail demand, likely due to competitive pricing or niche Uzbek textile quality.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but the top 3 (HS 61, 08, 52) collectively account for 50.31%, indicating moderate reliance on textiles, edible fruit/nuts, and cotton.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Russia

• Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, and waxes) leads at 27.05% of imports, reflecting energy dependency.
• Dependency Nature: Russia supplies critical energy resources, suggesting Uzbekistan’s reliance on Russian hydrocarbons for power and industrial needs.

Uzbekistan - Russia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports low-value consumer goods (textiles, agricultural products) and imports high-value energy and industrial inputs (fuels, iron/steel).
• Value Chain Position: Russia holds the higher value-add position, supplying energy and metals, while Uzbekistan’s exports are primarily labor-intensive or agrarian.

Import Analysis by Product: Russia to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Russia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Russia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-Russia trade relationship is likely to face continued volatility in the near term, with Uzbekistan’s export decline to Russia persisting amid weak demand signals. The widening trade deficit ($1.29B in Q4 2024) underscores structural imbalances, as Uzbekistan remains heavily dependent on Russian energy imports (HS Code 27) while its textile and agricultural exports struggle to gain traction. Without policy adjustments or external catalysts, the deficit may deepen further, particularly if global commodity prices fluctuate. However, Russia’s enduring reliance on Uzbek consumer goods (HS 61) could stabilize exports if pricing competitiveness improves.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Import Sources: Reduce energy dependency on Russia by securing alternative suppliers of mineral fuels (HS 27) from Central Asian or Middle Eastern markets to mitigate price and supply risks.
• Boost Export Competitiveness: Uzbek textile and agricultural exporters must invest in branding and quality upgrades to counter declining demand in Russia, targeting niche segments where Uzbek products hold an edge.
• Lock in Long-Term Contracts: For critical imports like Russian iron/steel (HS 72), negotiate fixed-price agreements to shield against potential cost surges driven by geopolitical or market shocks.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Russia trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Uzbekistan exported $723.43M to Russia but faced a YoY decline, while imports from Russia totaled $2.01B with mixed growth trends.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Russia?

The top exports include apparel and clothing accessories (HS 61), edible fruit and nuts (HS 08), and cotton (HS 52), collectively accounting for 50.31% of exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Russia?

Mineral fuels, oils, and waxes (HS 27) dominate imports at 27.05%, reflecting Uzbekistan’s energy dependency on Russia.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Russia?

Uzbekistan recorded a $1.29B trade deficit with Russia in Q4 2024, driven by higher imports of energy and industrial inputs.