Uzbekistan - Russia Trade 2023 Q3: Deficit Deepens

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Russia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Russia shows mixed growth and volatility in Q3 2023.

• Trade Deficit Deepens: Uzbekistan’s imports from Russia ($1.55B) nearly double its exports ($824.31M), resulting in a $725.69M deficit. Volatility marked both sides, with no clear directional trend.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Uzbekistan - Russia trade statistics reveal a lopsided structure—Uzbekistan ships low-value consumer goods (apparel, nuts) while importing high-value industrial inputs (steel, machinery).
• Strategic Dependency: Uzbekistan relies heavily on Russia for critical raw materials (energy, construction), reinforcing a supplier-buyer dynamic skewed in Russia’s favor.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Russia Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Russia

• Total Volume: $824.31M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed: July (+6.32%), August (-4.47%), September (+14.17%). No clear directional trend.
  • No relevant trade news to explain fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: September saw the highest MoM jump (+12.91%), while August had the sharpest drop (-5.94%).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Russia

• Total Volume: $1.55B in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth turned negative after July (+14.91%): August (+2.2%), September (-6.18%).
  • No news to contextualize the decline.
• Key Volatility: July had the highest MoM surge (+45.41%), while September posted the steepest fall (-8.89%).

Uzbekistan - Russia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $725.69M (Imports exceeded exports).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan remains heavily dependent on Russian imports, with Q3 imports nearly double export volumes.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Russia 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Russia 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Russia Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Russia Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Russia

• Top Commodity: HS Code 61 (Apparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted) dominates with 21.54% share.
• Demand Driver: Russia imports these consumer goods to meet domestic retail demand, likely due to competitive pricing or niche market preferences.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 61, 08, 52) account for 46.07% of total exports, indicating moderate concentration.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Russia

• Top Commodity: HS Code 72 (Iron and steel) leads at 16.02% share, reflecting Russia’s role as a key supplier of industrial inputs.
• Dependency Nature: Imports of HS 27 (mineral fuels) and HS 44 (wood) suggest reliance on Russia for energy and construction materials, highlighting raw material dependency.

Uzbekistan - Russia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Uzbekistan exports low-value consumer goods (apparel, nuts) while importing high-value industrial materials (steel, machinery).
• Value Chain Position: Russia holds the higher value-add position, supplying critical inputs (HS 72, 84) versus Uzbekistan’s labor-intensive exports (HS 61, 08).

Import Analysis by Product: Russia to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Russia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Russia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-Russia trade relationship is likely to remain volatile in the near term, with Uzbekistan’s trade deficit persisting due to its heavy reliance on Russian industrial inputs. While Uzbek exports to Russia show inconsistent growth, the demand for Russian steel (HS 72) and energy (HS 27) will keep imports elevated. However, if Russia’s economic slowdown continues, Uzbek exporters may face weaker demand, while import costs could rise due to supply chain disruptions. Traders should prepare for fluctuating trade volumes and pricing pressures in Q4 2023 and early 2024.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Import Sources: Reduce dependency on Russian steel and fuel by exploring alternative suppliers in Kazakhstan, Turkey, or China to mitigate supply risks and price volatility.
• Expand High-Value Exports: Shift focus from low-margin apparel (HS 61) to processed agricultural goods or light manufacturing to capture higher value in the Russian market.
• Lock in Long-Term Contracts: Secure fixed-price agreements for critical Russian imports (e.g., HS 72, 27) to hedge against potential ruble depreciation or geopolitical disruptions.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Russia trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Uzbekistan exported $824.31M to Russia, with mixed YoY growth, while imports totaled $1.55B, showing a decline after July.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Russia?

The top exports are apparel (HS 61), nuts (HS 08), and cotton (HS 52), accounting for 46.07% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Russia?

Uzbekistan primarily imports iron and steel (HS 72), mineral fuels (HS 27), and wood (HS 44) from Russia.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Russia?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $725.69M in Q3 2023, with imports nearly double export volumes.