Uzbekistan - Pakistan Trade 2023 Q3: Resource-Tech Complementarity

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Pakistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Pakistan reflects strong export growth with high volatility in Q3 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan holds a $34.85M trade surplus, with exports ($53.90M) far exceeding imports ($19.05M), despite recent import contractions.
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan-Pakistan trade statistics show a resource-for-tech complementarity—Uzbekistan supplies agricultural goods (57.86% HS 07) while importing pharmaceuticals (34.67% HS 30) and machinery.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is highly complementary, with Pakistan adding value through processed goods against Uzbekistan’s raw material exports.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Pakistan Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Pakistan

• Total Volume: $53.90M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • July exports surged 266.1% YoY, followed by a 47.13% YoY rise in August, before moderating to 1.88% YoY growth in September.
  • Key Volatility: July saw an extreme 189.09% MoM spike, while September dropped 52.33% MoM.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Pakistan

• Total Volume: $19.05M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Imports contracted YoY throughout Q3 (-11.39% in August, -13.88% in September), after a modest 4.51% YoY rise in July.
  • Key Volatility: August recorded the sharpest MoM decline (-30.85%), with imports consistently falling MoM.

Uzbekistan - Pakistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $34.85M (Exports $53.90M > Imports $19.05M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan maintains a strong net exporter role, with exports far outpacing imports despite recent import contractions.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Pakistan 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Pakistan 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Pakistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Pakistan Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Pakistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 07 (Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers) dominates with 57.86% share.
• Demand Driver: Pakistan likely imports these for direct consumption or food processing, indicating a consumer market demand.
• Concentration: Highly concentrated, with the top 3 exports (HS 07, 10, 31) accounting for 95.79% of total exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Pakistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 30 (Pharmaceutical products) leads with 34.67% share.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects a reliance on Pakistan for critical medical supplies, suggesting a healthcare sector dependency.

Uzbekistan - Pakistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports agricultural products (HS 07, 10) to Pakistan while importing pharmaceuticals (HS 30) and machinery (HS 76).
• Value Chain Position: Pakistan holds a higher value-add position, supplying processed goods (pharmaceuticals, machinery) against Uzbekistan’s raw agricultural exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Pakistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Pakistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Pakistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Pakistan is expected to hold steady in Q4 2023, driven by sustained demand for agricultural exports (HS 07) despite Pakistan’s weakening import appetite. However, the extreme volatility in monthly shipments—particularly the 52.33% MoM drop in September—signals potential supply chain disruptions or pricing pressures. Over the next year, Uzbekistan should anticipate Pakistan diversifying its pharmaceutical (HS 30) and machinery (HS 76) suppliers, which could tighten import volumes unless counterbalanced by new trade agreements.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Agri-Export Contracts: Uzbek exporters must secure multi-quarter contracts with Pakistani buyers to stabilize revenue streams amid erratic monthly demand swings.
• Diversify Import Sources: Reduce reliance on Pakistani pharmaceuticals by exploring alternative suppliers in India or Turkey to mitigate supply chain risks.
• Upgrade Trade Infrastructure: Invest in cold storage and faster customs clearance for perishable goods (HS 07) to minimize losses from transit delays and maintain competitive pricing.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Pakistan trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Uzbekistan's exports to Pakistan surged 266.1% YoY in July 2023, totaling $53.90M in Q3, while imports from Pakistan contracted, reaching $19.05M.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Pakistan?

The top exports are HS Code 07 (Edible vegetables and roots), HS Code 10 (Cereals), and HS Code 31 (Fertilizers), accounting for 95.79% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Pakistan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports HS Code 30 (Pharmaceutical products) and HS Code 76 (Machinery) from Pakistan, with pharmaceuticals leading at 34.67% share.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Pakistan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade surplus of $34.85M in Q3 2023, with exports significantly outpacing imports despite recent declines in Pakistani shipments.