Uzbekistan - Pakistan Trade 2023 Q2: Growth with Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Pakistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Pakistan showed growth with high volatility in Q2 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan held a $7.92M trade surplus ($41.05M exports vs. $33.13M imports), but June’s export collapse signals potential instability.
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan-Pakistan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-food swap—Uzbekistan dominates with vegetable exports (78.26% share) while importing cereals (22.46%) from Pakistan.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is volume-driven and agricultural, lacking high-value diversification, with both sides trading low-value-added goods.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Pakistan Trade Trend in Q2 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Pakistan

• Total Volume: $41.05M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was explosive in April (+110.95%) and May (+239.8%), but slowed sharply in June (+9.43%).
  • May’s 65.57% MoM surge was the quarter’s highlight, followed by a steep -68.25% drop in June.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Pakistan

• Total Volume: $33.13M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth peaked in May (+77.29%) but moderated in June (+18.87%).
  • Volatility was high: April and June saw MoM declines (-33.57% and -30.69%), while May’s drop was milder (-21.77%).

Uzbekistan - Pakistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $7.92M (Exports $41.05M > Imports $33.13M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan maintained a net exporter role, though June’s export collapse warrants monitoring.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Pakistan 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Pakistan 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Pakistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Pakistan Top Trading Products in Q2 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Pakistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 07 (Vegetables) dominates with 78.26% share.
• Demand Driver: Pakistan likely uses these for food consumption or processing, indicating a strong agricultural trade link.
• Concentration: Extreme reliance on one category (Vegetables), with over 75% of total exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Pakistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 10 (Cereals) leads at 22.46% share.
• Dependency Nature: Food security dependency, as cereals are staple goods.

Uzbekistan - Pakistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Food Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports vegetables (agricultural output) while importing cereals (another agricultural category), suggesting bilateral trade in differing agricultural products rather than a tech or industrial swap.
• Value Chain Position: Both sides trade in low-value-added agricultural goods, with neither holding a clear high-value position. Trade appears volume-driven rather than complexity-based.

Import Analysis by Product: Pakistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Pakistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Pakistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Pakistan is likely to stabilize in Q3 2023, but volatility will persist due to the extreme reliance on agricultural commodities. The explosive YoY growth in vegetable exports (HS 07) suggests strong demand, but the sharp June drop signals potential market saturation or seasonal fluctuations. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s cereal exports (HS 10) to Uzbekistan remain critical for food security, ensuring steady import volumes. Expect moderate growth in bilateral trade, driven by agricultural necessity rather than diversification.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Basket: Uzbek exporters must reduce dependence on vegetables by exploring secondary commodities like textiles or processed foods to mitigate seasonal risks.
• Lock in Supply Contracts: Pakistani cereal suppliers should secure long-term agreements with Uzbek buyers to stabilize trade flows amid global food price instability.
• Monitor Logistics Costs: Both nations should optimize cross-border transport to offset price sensitivity in low-value agricultural trade, ensuring competitiveness against regional rivals.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Pakistan trade perform in 2023 Q2?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade surplus of $7.92M, with exports totaling $41.05M and imports at $33.13M. Exports showed explosive YoY growth in April and May but slowed sharply in June.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Pakistan?

Vegetables (HS Code 07) dominate Uzbekistan’s exports to Pakistan, accounting for 78.26% of total shipments, indicating a strong agricultural trade link.

What does Uzbekistan import from Pakistan?

Cereals (HS Code 10) are the top import, making up 22.46% of Uzbekistan’s purchases from Pakistan, reflecting a food security dependency.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Pakistan?

Uzbekistan maintained a trade surplus of $7.92M in Q2 2023, though June’s export collapse suggests potential volatility ahead.