Uzbekistan - Pakistan Trade 2024 Q3: Uzbek Surplus Dominates

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Pakistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Pakistan shows volatility with a dominant Uzbek trade surplus in Q3 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan holds a $57.07M trade surplus ($75.74M exports vs. $18.67M imports), though exports slumped MoM after a July spike.
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan-Pakistan trade statistics reveal resource-for-tech complementarity—Uzbekistan supplies vegetables and cotton (95.66% of exports), while Pakistan delivers pharmaceuticals (48.04% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: Pakistan’s higher-value exports (pharma, machinery) position it as a critical supplier, while Uzbekistan’s agricultural exports anchor the partnership.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Pakistan Trade Trend in Q3 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Pakistan

• Total Volume: $75.74M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • July saw a sharp YoY surge (+89.05%), but momentum faded with consecutive MoM declines (-32.49% in August, -45.49% in September).
• Key Volatility: July’s exports spiked 128.75% MoM, followed by a steep contraction in September.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Pakistan

• Total Volume: $18.67M in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong recovery from July’s YoY slump (-31.06%), with August and September posting YoY gains (+7.04%, +35.35%).
• Key Volatility: September imports jumped 11.41% MoM, marking the highest monthly value ($6.83M).

Uzbekistan - Pakistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $57.07M (Exports $75.74M > Imports $18.67M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan dominates as a net exporter, though imports from Pakistan showed resilience in Q3.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Pakistan 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Pakistan 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Pakistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Pakistan Top Trading Products in Q3 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Pakistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 07 (Vegetables) dominates with 57.90% share.
• Demand Driver: Pakistan likely imports these for direct consumption or food processing, indicating a consumer market demand.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with the top 3 exports (HS 07, 52, 10) accounting for 95.66% of total exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Pakistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 30 (Pharmaceuticals) leads with 48.04% share.
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan relies on Pakistan for critical pharmaceutical products, suggesting a healthcare sector dependency.

Uzbekistan - Pakistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports agricultural products (vegetables, cotton) to Pakistan, while importing pharmaceuticals and machinery.
• Value Chain Position: Pakistan holds a higher value-add position, supplying advanced goods (pharmaceuticals, machinery), whereas Uzbekistan provides raw materials (agriculture, cotton).

Import Analysis by Product: Pakistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Pakistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Pakistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Pakistan is expected to stabilize in Q4 2024, though export volatility may persist due to seasonal agricultural fluctuations. The rebound in Pakistan’s pharmaceutical and machinery shipments signals resilient demand, but Uzbekistan’s over-reliance on raw material exports (vegetables, cotton) leaves it vulnerable to price swings. Traders should anticipate tighter margins in agriculture, while pharmaceutical imports from Pakistan could grow further, driven by healthcare needs. Long-term, Uzbekistan must diversify its export basket to reduce dependency on a few commodities.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Forward Contracts: Uzbek vegetable exporters should secure fixed-price agreements with Pakistani buyers to mitigate MoM price volatility, especially ahead of winter supply shifts.
• Diversify Import Sources: Uzbek pharmaceutical importers must explore alternative suppliers (e.g., India, China) to reduce overexposure to Pakistan’s pricing power in critical drugs.
• Invest in Value-Added Processing: Uzbek agribusinesses should prioritize upgrading food processing capabilities to export higher-margin products (e.g., canned vegetables) rather than raw crops, aligning with Pakistan’s consumer demand.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Pakistan trade perform in 2024 Q3?

Uzbekistan exported $75.74M to Pakistan, showing mixed growth (sharp YoY surge in July but MoM declines later). Imports from Pakistan totaled $18.67M, recovering from a July slump with YoY gains in August and September.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Pakistan?

HS Code 07 (Vegetables) dominates with a 57.90% share, followed by HS 52 (Cotton) and HS 10 (Cereals), collectively accounting for 95.66% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Pakistan?

HS Code 30 (Pharmaceuticals) leads with a 48.04% share, reflecting Uzbekistan’s reliance on Pakistan for critical healthcare products.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Pakistan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade surplus of $57.07M in Q3 2024, with exports significantly outpacing imports. The gap widened as exports surged in July before moderating.