Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade 2023 Q2: Heavy Deficit & Tech Reliance

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Mainland China is marked by heavy import reliance and volatile growth in Q2 2023.

• $1.88B Deficit: Uzbekistan’s exports to China ($496M) covered only 21% of its imports ($2.38B), highlighting a lopsided trade balance.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Uzbekistan’s top exports (mineral fuels, copper) fuel China’s industry, while imports (machinery, electronics) reveal critical tech dependency—key to understanding Uzbekistan - Mainland China trade statistics.
• Asymmetric Interdependence: China holds the high-value position, supplying advanced goods, while Uzbekistan remains a commodity exporter—a classic emerging-market dynamic.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q2 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: Exports to Mainland China totaled $496.47M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • April saw a sharp 66.7% MoM surge but a -25.4% YoY decline, suggesting a rebound from a weak prior quarter but still lagging 2022 levels.
  • May and June showed muted growth (0.41% MoM, 0.87% YoY) and a -11.01% MoM drop respectively, indicating stabilization after April’s volatility.
• Key Volatility: April’s MoM spike stands out, likely reflecting seasonal restocking or short-term demand shifts.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: Imports from Mainland China reached $2.38B in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • May recorded a 121.67% YoY surge, dwarfing April’s 19.22% YoY growth and June’s 21.06% YoY rise, signaling a mid-quarter demand spike.
  • MoM swings were extreme: +34.39% in May followed by -34.42% in June, suggesting volatile procurement cycles.
• Key Volatility: May’s import value ($989.78M) peaked, likely tied to infrastructure or industrial input needs.

Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Uzbekistan ran a trade deficit of $1.88B (Imports $2.38B > Exports $496.47M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy import reliance on Mainland China, with exports covering only 21% of import costs. The deficit highlights dependence on Chinese goods, likely machinery or electronics, while Uzbek exports (possibly raw materials) remain niche.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Mainland China 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Mainland China 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Mainland China Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q2 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 Export is HS 27 (Mineral Fuels & Oils) at 48.79% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these for industrial processing, likely as raw materials for energy or chemical production.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 27 and HS 74 (Copper & Articles) together making up 78.63% of exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 Import is HS 84 (Nuclear Reactors & Machinery) at 26.67% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as HS 84, HS 87 (Vehicles), and HS 85 (Electrical Machinery) dominate imports, indicating reliance on industrial and high-tech equipment.

Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports raw materials (mineral fuels, copper) and imports machinery and industrial goods.
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery and electronics, while Uzbekistan provides commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade with Mainland China is likely to stabilize in Q3 2023, with exports recovering modestly as demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and copper (HS 74) remains steady. However, import volatility may persist due to fluctuating procurement of Chinese machinery (HS 84) and electronics (HS 85), driven by Uzbekistan’s infrastructure and industrial needs. The trade deficit will remain wide unless Uzbekistan diversifies its export basket or secures more favorable terms. Long-term, the resource-for-tech exchange model will deepen, but Uzbek exporters must act to reduce overreliance on raw material sales.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Commodity Contracts: Uzbek mineral fuel and copper exporters should secure long-term agreements with Chinese buyers to stabilize revenue streams amid price volatility.
• Diversify Import Sources: Uzbek importers of machinery and electronics must explore alternative suppliers (e.g., South Korea, Turkey) to mitigate over-dependence on Mainland China.
• Upgrade Export Capacity: Uzbek policymakers and businesses should invest in light manufacturing (e.g., textiles, processed foods) to add value and reduce the raw-material export bias.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Mainland China trade perform in 2023 Q2?

Uzbekistan exported $496.47M to Mainland China and imported $2.38B, with mixed growth trends—April saw a sharp MoM surge but YoY declines, while May and June showed stabilization.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Mainland China?

The top exports are HS 27 (Mineral Fuels & Oils) at 48.79% and HS 74 (Copper & Articles), together making up 78.63% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Mainland China?

The top imports are HS 84 (Nuclear Reactors & Machinery) at 26.67%, along with HS 87 (Vehicles) and HS 85 (Electrical Machinery), reflecting reliance on industrial and high-tech equipment.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Mainland China?

Uzbekistan ran a trade deficit of $1.88B, with imports ($2.38B) far exceeding exports ($496.47M), highlighting heavy reliance on Chinese goods.