Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade 2023 Q1: $1.79B Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Mainland China shows heavy reliance on Chinese imports amid volatile export performance in Q1 2023.

• $1.98B imports vs. $192.83M exports create a $1.79B deficit, with Uzbek exports declining YoY while Chinese imports surged.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Uzbekistan’s cotton (43.5% of exports) fuels China’s textile sector, while machinery (26.3% of imports) drives Uzbek industrial dependency.
• Asymmetric Interdependence: China holds the high-value position, supplying advanced goods, while Uzbekistan remains a raw material exporter.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $192.83M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY decline persisted across all months, with the sharpest drop in January (-63.37%).
  • February and March showed partial recovery but remained negative (-47.53% and -33.79% YoY, respectively).
• Key Volatility: March saw a 94.15% MoM surge, the highest quarterly spike.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $1.98B in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth in February (+17.15%) and March (+38.54%), offsetting a flat January (-0.28%).
• Key Volatility: February recorded the highest MoM jump (+48.94%), while January had the steepest monthly drop (-24.79%).

Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $1.79B (Imports exceeded exports by this margin).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Chinese imports, with exports failing to keep pace despite March’s export rebound.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Mainland China 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Mainland China 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Mainland China Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Cotton (HS Code 52) dominates with 43.52% of exports.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses Uzbek cotton for textile manufacturing, reflecting its role as a global apparel producer.
• Concentration: High—cotton alone accounts for nearly half of exports, indicating heavy reliance on a single commodity.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Machinery (HS Code 84) leads at 26.34% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as machinery imports suggest reliance on Chinese industrial equipment for local production.

Uzbekistan - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Uzbekistan exports raw materials (cotton, copper) while importing machinery and electronics.
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced goods (HS 84, 85) versus Uzbekistan’s raw material exports (HS 52, 74).

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-Mainland China trade relationship is expected to remain asymmetrical in the near term, with imports continuing to outpace exports. While March’s export rebound signals potential stabilization, the persistent YoY declines in Uzbek shipments to China suggest structural weaknesses in commodity-driven trade. Conversely, China’s strong import growth—particularly in machinery (HS 84)—indicates sustained demand for Uzbek raw materials, but with limited value-addition opportunities for Uzbekistan. Traders should anticipate volatile commodity prices and prepare for supply chain adjustments as China diversifies its sourcing.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Basket: Uzbek exporters must reduce reliance on cotton (HS 52) by expanding into processed goods (e.g., textiles, refined copper) to capture higher margins and mitigate price volatility.
• Lock In Machinery Contracts: Importers should secure long-term agreements with Chinese suppliers for critical industrial equipment (HS 84) to hedge against potential supply disruptions and currency fluctuations.
• Leverage Trade Deficit Leverage: The Uzbek government must negotiate preferential trade terms with China, such as tariff reductions on value-added exports, to rebalance the $1.79B deficit.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Mainland China trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Uzbekistan exported $192.83M to Mainland China, with a YoY decline, while imports surged to $1.98B, driven by strong growth in February and March.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Mainland China?

Cotton (HS Code 52) dominates, accounting for 43.52% of Uzbekistan’s exports to Mainland China.

What does Uzbekistan import from Mainland China?

Machinery (HS Code 84) is the top import, making up 26.34% of Uzbekistan’s purchases from Mainland China.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Mainland China?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $1.79B, with imports far exceeding exports in Q1 2023.